The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Saturday 24 February 2024. There is a 7-race card with heavy going conditions.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 67-137   49%   +0.54    36-123   29%   -19.12
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    52-159   33%   -10.56
NHF    15-49    31%  -12.56    0-0	 	
TOTAL  90-203   44%  -14.59    88-282   31%   -29.68

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  58-223   26%   -33.85   +2%   2 
Evan Williams (11%)  27-257   11%   -38.00   +0%   7   
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-125   13%   -36.52   -6%   1   
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-130   12%   -49.04   -3%   1
Ven Williams (17%)   15-100   15%    -8.62   -2%   0

HOT TRAINERS 25/01/2023 to 23/02/2024        +/-   E
Stuart Edmunds (13%) 7-21   33%	   -1.00    +20%   2
Kerry Lee (18%)	     3-10   30%	   +1.58    +12%   1
Ben Clarke (16%)     4-14   29%	   -2.00    +13%   1
Paul Nicholls (24%) 21-78   27%	   -0.03     +3%   2
Hobbs & White (13%)  7-33   21%	   +0.50     +8%   1

COLD TRAINER     SAW                               E
Neil King (11%)   27     69 days                   2
Peter Bowen (12%) 20     59 days                   1      

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  41-157   26%   -41.45    +3%   0 
Adam Wedge (13%)    21-180   12%   -19.8     -1%   0
Ben Jones (14%)     19-84    23%   +71.68    +9%   0  
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-108   14%   -33.63    -2%   1
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-75    19%    +0.47    -1%   1

HOT JOCKEYS 25/01/2023 to 23/02/2024         +/-   R
Fergus Gregory (12%)  6-16    38%   -1.00   +26%   2
Freddie Gingell (16%) 5-20    25%   -1.00    +9%   1        

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (14%) 11-64   17%    -5.87    +3%   0  
John P McManus (15%) 10-69   14%    +1.40    -1%   1   
Colm Donlon (24%)    6-14    43%   +11.93   +18%   0 
David Brace (13%)    6-24    25%   +15.00   +13%   2
Walters Plant (19%)  6-40    15%   -13.05    -4%   0

Chepstow Fixtures:
Saturday 24 February 2024
Sunday 17 March 2024		
Thursday 21 March 2024

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 178 winning favourites from 485 races for 36.70% (-44.27) so around +3% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 90-203 for 44% whilst handicap winning favourites score 88-282 for 31% for a 13% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 67-137 for 49% (+0.54) ← ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 35-121 for 29% (-19.32) ←

TRAINERS: Evan Williams (11%) has 7 entries and will be disappointed if not finding a winner. His horses are running well scoring two winners at 13/2 and 11/1 in the past week, his runners include THE BIG MAN 1.23, THREE CLIFFS BAY 1.58, WALKINTHEWOODS 2.33, MINELLA BLUEWAY 3.08, DR T J ECKLEBURG 3.43, PAGEANT MATERIAL 4.18 & LEECH 4.53.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls (24%) will be busy at Kempton but has 2 runners of interest at Chepstow, they are MONMIRAL 3.08 & QUEL DESTIN 3.43 (also entered at Kempton.

It cannot be right that on a busy winter Saturday in February, the Jonjo O'Neill stable has just the 1 runner across 3 meetings and 21 races. COLLECTIVE ITIEM 3.08 runs in the competitive Class 2 Handicap Hurdle but hard to see this one featuring. Between 2001 and 2010 the trainer would automatically record in excess of 100 winners each season for seven-figure prizemoney, in 2013/14 he scored 134 winners (with 105 second-places). Deep into the second-half of this season the stable shows just 60 winners. TRH was lucky enough to spend the day at Jackdaws Castle and can confirm there is not a better national hunt training establishment in the UK. The facilities and setting took our breath away and represented one of our best days racing. Sadly though, we remember A P McCoy moaning about not having 'Saturday Runners' from the stable, and the reality is the winning numbers post 2017/18 are not commensurate with the skill-set, amenities and consequential advantage.

JOCKEYS: James Bowen (13%) has 5 rides including IDEFIX DE CIERGUES 1.23, IN FROM THE COLD 1.58, THOR DE CERISY 2.33, WALKING ON AIR 3.08 & ANDY AMO 4.53.

Jack Tudor (10%) remains in the doldrums, meaning his partnership with David Pipe has yet to take off! Since November, he shows just 5-97 for 5% (-79.39). He has just the one ride tomorrow and it is of interest (see red flag).

There are 3 other jockeys with just one ride including Paddy Brennan (20%), Jonjo O'Neill Jnr (16%) & Freddie Gingell (16%).

OWNERS: David Brace (13%) is a canny operator and scores 25% at Chepstow, he runs CLASSIC CONCORDE 3.08 & THAT'LL BE THE DAY 4.18 and hard to see them running a place in their respective races based on what we have seen.

RED FLAG: J P McManus (15%) has an interesting runner tomorrow in THANKSFORYOURHELP and for us the entry represents a total contradiction of the facts as we know it! His runner won this race last year on good to soft ground carrying 10st 5lb, so a course and distance winner and it is more likely than not he has been primed/aimed for this race again this year! This is the only runner for David Pipe at the course tomorrow and stable jockey Jack Tudor has been sent to ride.

BUT, the going tomorrow is heavy - Thanksforyourhelp has not won on anything softer than good to soft, in fact his only 2 wins have both been on good to soft ground (including his win in this race last year), he is 0-3 on anything softer and never raced on heavy ground previously. Last time out at Haydock he was made the 11/2 second favourite of 16 for a Class 2 Handicap worth £26,015 on good to soft ground but was pulled up. When asked for an explanation for his dismal run the trainer's rep said their horse was unsuited by the good to soft ground despite being 2-4 on it (including a second place finish)? He said their charge needed slower ground whilst the vet confirmed post-race there were no abnormalities. He has now attracted the attention of the stewards and it will be interesting to see if he is supported by his owner tomorrow on ground he has never ran on!

He has opened at 13/2 with William Hill (15.30) but we note Bet365 have only offered 5/1 as a first price. We are opposing the McManus runner and laying him a 1-2-3 finishing position!

***

BY THE WAY: TRH is not backing our horse PENTLAND HILLS 1.15 Kempton. The Racing Post supplies misinformation to readers by saying he handles any ground - he does not! His NH career shows 4-6 for 67% on good, good to soft ground, and 0-4 for 0% on soft to heavy. The 0-4 on soft ground only tells part of the story.

We fully expect Nicky Henderson to take him out of the race once he arrives at the course and sees the ground conditions for himself at Kempton. The problem is our horse has been ready to run and win for quite a long time now, and we appreciate one cannot keep them in peak readiness for weeks and weeks. Our message to Nicky is loud and clear - do not run Pentland Hills on soft ground no matter what - it might end his career! How so?

The facts are, he fell and was pulled up on his last 2 runs on soft ground, and on 2 of his last 3 runs on soft ground he needed 927 days and 336 days to recover/overcome injuries sustained.

 Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald