GOODWOOD Racecourse Template (Saturday 25 May 2024)

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The Racing Horse offers our Goodwood Racecourse Template for Saturday 25 May 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 2 Listed Races, 3 Handicaps, a Novice and a Maiden Race. The ground is expected to be good, good to firm in places.

Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   40-87    46%    +9.67   4-18	22%    -6.63
3yo   25-62    40%   -10.31   35-115	30%   -13.58
4yo+  21-49    43%    -1.58   57-165	35%   +19.56
TOTAL 86-198   43%    -2.22   96-298    32%    -0.65

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Goodwood last 5 years      +/-   E 
Andrew Balding (15%)  36-217   17%   -8.35   +2%   4
William Haggas (22%)  26-116   22%  -10.90   +0%   2
Richard Hannon (11%)  19-215	9%  -56.75   -2%   3
Ralph Beckett (18%)   15-120   13%  -26.83   -5%   4
Charlie Appleby (29%) 14-53    26%   -1.22   -3%   1                              

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Goodwood last 5 years       +/-   R
William Buick (23%)   38-172   22%   -11.64  -1%   0
Oisin Murphy (19%)    33-173   19%   -20.46  +0%   0
Tom Marquand (15%)    33-197   17%   +33.14  +2%   7
Jim Crowley (19%)     22-145   15%   -66.78  -4%   0
Silvestre Sousa (14%) 15-100   15%    +1.60  +1%   0        

TOP 5 OWNERS at Goodwood last 5 years        +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	    16-90   18%	   -28.22    -7%   1
Shadwell Est (23%)  12-47   26%	   +12.30    +3%   0
King Power (13%)     9-82   11%	   -26.50    -2%   1
Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 8-28   29%	    -4.25    +8%   0
Moham Maktoum (14%)  8-43   19%	   +19.45    +5%   0

Saturday  25 May 2024
Friday 7 June 2024
Sunday 9 June 2024
Friday 14 June 2024

Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
YARMOUTH (Monday 27 May 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Right handed, undulating. There are two bends; all races up to a mile and a quarter use the lower bend, and in excess of eleven furlongs use the top bend. Although there is a five-furlong run-in from the top bend, the turns and the pronounced downhill gradients make Goodwood essentially a sharp track, favouring handy types, particularly in the shorter-distance races. The five-furlong course is one of the fastest in the country, meaning speedy sorts often have an advantage. A notoriously tricky course, those held up regularly meet trouble in the straight, particularly when kept to the rail.

FAVOURITES: Goodwood is generally regarded as a poor course for returning favourites to SP - it is not true. Punditry confuses the natural scrimmaging and trouble in running that occurs there, as impacting negatively on winning favourites! The beauty of our Racecourse Templates is they reveal and relay the cold facts. Winning favourites at the course show 182-496 for 36.69% and a small loss of -2.87 to SP, so around +3% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 43% against handicap winning favourites of 32% for a 11% differential.

TRAINERS: Ed Walker (14%) is a trainer in red-hot form having scored with 4 from his last 8 runners for 50% (+25.00) priced at 7/1, 7/2, 10/1 & 17/2. He has 9 runners today and his runners must be processed, they include MAKAROVA 1.50 Haydock, CELANDINE & STAGE EFFECT 2.35 Goodwood, ENGLISH OAK 3.00 Haydock, UMBRIA 4.20 Goodwood, DREAMROCKER 5.05 York, ARNAZ 7.00 Salisbury, TAVALA 7.30 Salisbury & GELICEAUX 8.00 Salisbury. Stop at a winner?

The top 5 trainers at the course have 14 runners between them, but the runners of J & T Gosden (21%) catch the eye especially with 6 runners at the course. April and May to date shows 21-95 for 22% and their course figure score 12-64 for 19% (-15.95). Before Thady, John Gosden scored 157-830 for 19% (+9.59) at Goodwood and £5,964,814 in prize money. TRH has talked quite a bit about the John Gosden national average strike rate of 25% dropping to the current 21% and after their Lockinge Group 1 winner Audience we sense they are about to spring forward given and challenge for more major prizes! Their runners include REGAL JUBILEE & BEELEY 2.05, VAGUELY ROYAL 3.10, LYRIC & PAPPANO 3.45 and LOVES LOVING 4.20.

JOCKEYS: Tom Marquand (15%) has a full book of 7 rides and should be amongst the winners. His rides include BLUE PRINCE 1.30, LOCAL ARMS 2.05, CELANDINE 2.35, THERE'S THE DOOR 3.10, SPACE LEGEND 3.45, UMBRIA 4.20 & CLOUD KING 4.55.

Joe Fanning (13%) has largely been overlooked by the Johnston's in recent years with horses bound for Goodwood. The jockey's record over the past 5 years shows just 7-96 for 7% (-66.03) when measured against the number of horses they run at the course. He has 2 rides for them today and 3 in total, they include ROBBO 1.30, FRANCOPHONE 2.05 & CANDLE OF DUBAI 4.20.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have an entry in ROYAL POWER 3.45 trained by Charlie Hills and ridden by Pat Dobbs. The form book says their entry has a bit to find with the front two in the market.

King Power (13%) have a single entry in MISSION TO MOON 1.30 trained by Roger Varian and ridden by Aiden Keeley (3). This 3yo last time out and course and distance winner is available at 14/1 with Bet365 and that looks big given he is 2-2 at the course, 1-2 in this class and 2-5 at the distance. We have nibbled at bigger than 14/1. As we go to post there are 17 runners in this handicap so at least 4 places are available.

RED FLAG: Historically, the Johnston family out of their training base in Middleham Moor, loved sending runners to Goodwood and having winners - it became an/obsession/pilgrimage. Father Mark Johnston had a national average of 14% and replicated that strike rate at the course scoring 168-1199 for 14% (+71.43) and winning £6,057,408 in prize money. Relatively speaking and yes it is early days, the 34 year-old son Charlie Johnston (14%) has not maintained his father's level of performance to date and made aware of the fact. His personal tally shows 7-57 for 12% (-28.01) so a significant -2% drop. One imagines he has been receiving advice from a certain belligerent and opinionated party. One imagines this party to be just about the most annoying backseat driver in the training world today.

Mark Johnston was a leading trainer and a former director of the BHA and he told the Racing Post that ITV should "get rid of all coverage of betting" when it took over from Channel 4. He continued if ITV fails to heed his warning a "Top Gear-style car crash" could be on the way! Ye Gods!

Charlie Johnston sends 2 more the 286-mile distance to Goodwood, both with win chances, in FRANCOPHONE 2.05 & CANDLE OF DUBAI 4.20. Talking of distances, Karl Burke (14%) also sends 2 on the 286-mile trip in MOLTEN ROCK & LOCAL ARMS 2.05, whilst David O'Meara (12%) sends 2 on a 257-mile trip in LAVA STREAM 2.05 & GET SHIRTY 3.10. Stop at a winner?

RED FLAG 2: Not Goodwood related but WE URGE members to check out the rides of SILVESTRE DE SOUSA (14%) at Salisbury tonight! He has a full book of 8 rides and a number of them have real winning chances. His rides include SUN PETAL (C Johnston) 4.49, HORSE WHISPERER (C Dwyer) 5.20, MIDNIGHT'S DREAM (R Varian) 5.55, SAKHEER (R Varian) 6.30, FLAVOUR MAKER (R Varian) 7.00, ENPASSANT (J Fanshawe) 7.30, RICH HARRY (A Haynes) 8.00 & CLAN CHIEFTAN (R Beckett) 8.30. When he combines with Roger Varian they score 14-59 for a big 24% (+24.72), when he rides for Chris Dwyer they combine with 18-66 for an even bigger 27% (+11.23). There's more! When he rides for James Fanshawe the combination shows 4-19 for 21% (+4.75). There is a negative, the jockey is 1-24 at the course for 4% (-22.20). Predicted figure at 8.40pm is 3-32 for 10%.


AL SHABAB STORM (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, Harry Davies rides
DRAGON LEADER (C Cox) beaten favourite last time out, Luke Morris rides
QIRAT (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, Hector Crouch rides

LOCAL ARMS (K Burke) beaten favourite last time out, long traveller 286-miles. Tom Marquand rides
REGAL JUBILEE (J & T Gosden) drops from Group 1 to Listed, Rob Havlin rides
FRANCOPHONE (C Johnston) Long traveller 286-miles. Well held in Group 2 Doncaster last September, useful otherwise. Good 2nd in Group 3 Musidora 10 days ago, Ribblesdale entry, Joe Fanning rides

JAKARTA (P & O Cole) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, tardy start on debut, extra furlong to suit. Benoit Sayette rides
KOKOBAH (R Varian) trainer 12-63 for 19% with first time out 2yos past year (29 places), Aiden Keeley (3) rides
NIGHTBIRD (S & E Crisford) February foal €100,000 yearling; stable has fine record with 2yos first time out (19% past 2 years) and took this with the subsequent Group 3 winner Flotus three years ago. Harry Davies rides

GET SHIRTY (D O'Meara) long traveller 257-miles, weighted to win 105 > 92, appreciate step back up in trip. Charles Bishop rides
VAGUELY ROYAL (J & T Gosden) useful performer winning back-to-back handicaps on AW in winter. Ran up to best, returned to turf, when 2nd in Newmarket handicap, Rob Havlin rides
CRESCENT LAKE (G & J Moore) All 3 wins last year were 1m6f, including 2 here (May and June). George Rooke rides

SPACE LEGEND (W Haggas) promising sort, King Edward VII entry, second to useful Godolphin in December and built on that when easily winning at 4/11 at Leicester making most. Tom Marquand rides
MEYDAAN (S & E Crisford) top rated, King Edward VII entry, longer trip looks optimum but comfortably the best form. Harry Davies rides

NINI STAR (D Menuisier) formerly with L Pontoir, Benoit Sayette rides
CRYSTAL FLYER (T Ward) big step forward Sandown 4th last month with form proving strong. Pat Dobbs rides
CANDLE OF DUBAI (C Johnston) long traveller 286-miles, ran to fair level first time up when 2 of 8 at Chelmsford City 23 days ago when clear of rest. Should progress, Joe Fanning rides

CLOUD KING (R Cowell) beaten favourite last time out, obvious 1 or 2 material, Tom Marquand rides
GRANDLAD (J Horton) unexposed winner last time out, Adam Farragher rides

 Finding winners is all very well, but the approach and mechanics to betting is more important! Developing this winning mentality is more important than developing actual sports betting knowledge, whilst developing the right mindset to combat adversities is key.

Goodwood’s stewards are surely among the busiest in Britain, as it’s tricky to ride and it’s easy to run into traffic problems, especially on the round course. The bottom turn claims its share of victims, because the ground there runs away from you, while the bend into the home straight is very sharp. You get congestion on the dogleg, too, as normally a fair few are still in contention at that point. On the sprint course, the quickest way home is in a straight line, which means the middle is usually a good spot - Jason Weaver

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