BATH Racecourse Template (Friday 24 May 2024)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Bath Racecourse Template for Friday 24 May 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 6 Handicaps and 2 Novice Races. The going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.

Bath FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicaps                  Handicaps
2yo   27-63	43%   -6.38    5-14	 36%	+0.60
3yo   26-61	43%  -11.36    51-156	 33%   -15.45
4yo+   4-14	29%   -2.50    78-250	 31%	+8.75
TOTAL 57-138	41%  -20.25    134-420	 32%    -6.10

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Bath past 5 years           +/-   E
Clive Cox (14%)      26-99    26%   +34.59   +12%   1
Adrian Wintle (10%)  23-122   19%   +27.40    +9%   2
Tony Carroll (9%)    22-255    9%   -97.25    +0%   4   
Eve J-Houghton (12%) 19-104   18%    +5.83    +6%   1
Rod Millman (12%)    19-118   16%    +5.36    +4%   3 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Bath past 5 years            +/-   R
David Probert (12%) 30-180   17%    -2.19     +5%   0
Charles Bishop (9%) 18-155   12%   -46.16     +3%   0
Luke Morris (9%)    17-159   11%   -77.32     +2%   0
Hollie Doyle (15%)  16-92    17%    +2.40     +2%   0
Hector Crouch (14%) 14-69    20%    +7.28     +6%   0 

TOP 5 OWNERS at Bath past 5 years             +/-   E 
Adrian Wintle (13%) 13-43   30%	   +48.70    +17%   1
M S Teversham (14%)  6-22   27%	   +10.49    +13%   0
Godolphin (25%)	     5-15   33%	    +3.53     +8%   0
2 Counties Rac (10%) 5-24   21%	    +6.75    +11%   1
Wedgewood Est (9%)   5-31   16%	    +1.83     +7%   0  

Friday 7 June 2024
Saturday 15 June 2024		

Haydock (Saturday 25 May 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Left handed, galloping. The round course is an elongated oval track, just over twelve furlongs in extent, with a run-in of nearly half a mile, those that commit for home early in the straight often proving vulnerable in the closing stages, this due to the steady climb to the finish. The camera angle in the straight makes it one of the trickiest course in the country for in-running bettors as it's head-on from two furlongs out to inside the last. The highest course in the country, with no watering, so the ground can get very firm during a dry spell.

WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Bath over the last 5 years show 191-558 for 34.23% (-26.35) so just above the national average of around 33%. Best categories for strike rates are 2yo & 3yos winning favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 43%, whilst the worst performing category are 4yos+ in handicaps scoring at 31% showing a 12% differential.

TRAINERS: The top 5 trainers at the course all have interest tomorrow and should be processed. Tony Carroll has a lowly 9% national average but has place chances with 3 of his 4 runners, they include HEARITFORTHEBOYS 2.15, CINQUE VERDE 4.30, CAREY STREET 5.30 & LONG CALL 6.10.

JOCKEYS: None of the leading jockeys at Bath have a ride here tomorrow, but we have a couple of class jockeys in attendance. James Doyle (19%) is in Paris today for a couple of Listed Races, but he travels to Bath to ride a couple and the hint should be taken. He rides AESTERIUS 2.50 & CATCH THE LIGHT 5.00 and we sense a winner!

We are still waiting for Benoit De La Sayette (15%) to take off after showing fabulous early promise and he rides 2 also in BINADHAM 2.50 & ALL TOO WELL 5.00. He has not come to terms with this course yet scoring just 1-16 for 6%.

Billy Loughnane's (14%) top Turf track for winners is Bath where he scores 12-88 for 14% (-31.10) and he has 5 runners including OTTOMAN FORCE 2.15, ARDENNES 2.50, SEA STREAM 5.00, CITY ESCAPE 5.30 & MAWADA 6.10.

OWNERS: Adrian Wintle is second top trainer at the course scoring at 10% and top owner at the course scoring 13% so a 3% differential that should be acknowledged. He has a single owned runner for this meeting in BLUE HERO 5.30 (weighted to win 62 > 55) to be ridden by George Rooke, though he also trains and runs class dropper MAWADA 6.10 and an eye-catching jockey booking in Billy Loughnane, big prices available.

2 Counties Racing (10%) have a single entry also in SYMBOL OF HOPE 3.25 trained by John & Rhys Flint and ridden by Ethan Jones (7).

RED FLAG: TRH is not a fan of the RICHARD HANNON MODUS OPERANDI. In our opinion he flogs his 2yos and if you ever wanted proof today proves it. The grey 2yo colt MUKABER 2.50 was foaled on the 18 May yet is making his debut already on the kidney shape 5f Bath Racecourse, meaning he will be on the turn for most of the race. What is the hurry with this 115,000gns purchase? What is to be gained? What will Sheikh Abdullah Almalek Alsabah do with his share of £3,402 prize money? If they were going to race this immature 2yo why not use a straight 5f AW Course? This entry represents madness unless we have missed something? The horse has a Group 2 entry on 30 June in Ireland so they might say they want to get the colt out for experience - we do not accept that given the above! The only non-negative about this entry we can find is the distance from stable to course which is around 34 miles.

By the way, despite his reputation for 2yo winners, his first start 2yos score 6-91 for 6.59% over the past year, 46-571 for 8.09% over the past 5 years (-163.01). Context is everything, Clive Cox who opposes him today scores 31-233 for 13.30% (+21.88), whilst Archie Watson is 36-205 for 17.56% (-36.76). Finally, Aesterius for Archie Watson was foaled 31 January and Redorange for Clive Cox was foaled 21 March. The chances of Mukaber winning despite a Group 2 entry is remote in our humble opinion yet is only 7/1 in the market.


TEN CLUB (J Osborne) beaten favourite last time out, William Carver rides
PROFIT STREET (N Tinkler) long traveller 217-miles, Alex Jary (5) rides
HEARITFORTHEBOYS (A Carroll) beat a couple of in-form opponents at Windsor last timeout, recent rain helps, Jack Doughty (7) rides

AESTERIUS (A Watson) trainer 36 first time up 2yo winners, £380,000 purchase. James Doyle rides
BOLO NEIGHS (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, RPR of 80 after second on debut. Rhys Clutterbuck rides
REDORANGE (C Cox) missed intended run at Newmarket on Sunday (cut leg); stable have run 130 2yos here with 31 winners and further 38 placed (level-stake profit of +58.25). 12/1 could be a big price, John Fahy rides

SYMBOL OF HOPE (R & R Flint) C&D winner and 5-times winner at Bath, Ethan Jones (7) rides
MEDIA GUEST (M Gillard)  good recent second at Brighton off an unchanged mark. Liam Keniry rides
MIDNIGHT FLAME (J Ponting) weighted to go close though 0-16, Kieran O'Neill rides

LIOSA (W Kittow) beaten favourite last time out when no luck in running, George Rooke rides
BAMA LAMA (R Millman) creditable 3rd of 10 in Windsor handicap 18 days ago, place chance and Oliver Searle's 7lb claim helps loads
VITALLINE (Keiran Burke) beaten favourite last time out, Josephine Gordon rides

CINQUE VERDE (T Carroll) winner of 4 of his last 6 races, Jack Doughty (7) rides
CONNIE'S ROSE (G Harris) course winner, beaten favourite last time out, Callum Hutchinson (3) rides
SHE'S CENTIMENTAL (A Haynes) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, won 4-6 for 67% in this class. Kieran O'Neill rides

LOVE YOU DARLING (B Brookhouse) lightly-raced filly, upped her game when close 2nd in Goodwood maiden on return 20 days ago. Longer trip could suit and the one to beat, Alistair Rawlinson rides

DIVINE PRESENCE (J & T Gosden) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, trainer 23% with horses races over 10f+, Kieran O'Neill rides

ENZOS ANGEL (N Mulholland) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 8-39 for 21% past 30 days. Marco Ghiani rides
GALACTIC GLOW (J Tickle) seeking fourth C&D win, beaten favourite last time out, Taylor Fisher rides
CITY ESCAPE (M Loughnane) weighted to win 60 > 57, Billy Loughnane rides

EYE OF THE WATER (R Harris) disappointed at Chepstow but 2 wins and 5 places at Bath, Cieren Fallon rides
HAVANA GOLDRUSH (J Moore) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 64 > 58. Shariq Mohd rides
MAWADA (A Wintle) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, first time hood, Billy Loughnane rides

 The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, and as long as it exists it NEVER will!

Bath races are usually run at a true gallop and, sometimes, horses start getting a bit too competitive a long way out. The sharp home turn makes it almost a specialist’s track and you see plenty of runners struggling around it. But, if you’re on one that rails and is fleet of foot, that bend can be a good point to grab an advantage, by turning the taps on while others are having trouble. The finish is quite stiff, so you need to get home, but you would love to be on a front-runner that handles the ups and downs - Jason Weaver

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