LUBNA 2.45 Hamilton at 7/4

Book Our Onsite Hotel Ferniegair Handicap (Class 5) 1m68y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-9 for 22%           (10)
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10)
OR & RPR: 76 & 78                   (10)                            
Optimum Ground: Good (won on soft)  (10)
Distance: 1m                        (10)
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave                (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 25%         (10) 
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Havana Party Alt: Night Terrors

Win upgraded

Whilst it looked a weak maiden auction stakes race (Class 5) at Brighton last time out we upgraded the win of Lubna. They 3yo filly took a keen hold and pressed the leader before leading narrowly at halfway. Switched to the near side she was joined 2f out but was shaken up and went clear over 1f out to win very easily by 8½l.

Conditions to suit

That race was on softish ground and tomorrow the faster surface should suit her better. The dam won twice over a mile on fast conditions including the 1000 UAE Guineas. Three of her four siblings have won on good to firm ground and from distances of 7f to 1m2f+ so our Pacafi could have optimum conditions tomorrow. It is no surprise she is out quickly under a penalty and she is expected to progress again. We note the filly makes the trip to Hamilton instead of Newbury on Thursday or Doncaster on Friday, and a considerable distance of 361m, which is still 154m further than the next longest traveller.

Trainer form

Saeed bin Suroor has his string ticking over nicely with 2 of his last 9 runners winning but also including 3 second places at bigger prices. The fact he takes this 3yo filly to Hamilton is a tip in itself, as the trainer has only sent 26 horses there in total winning 6 times for a 23% strike rate. The trainer sends two to the course. Jockey Pat Cosgrave makes the trip up to ride both of those Godolphin runners and must be thinking of a win double. His combination with the trainer is a particularly good one showing figures of 40-157 for 25% in the UK. Within their combination there have been a stack of big winners abroad and in some big races.

Timeform

 LUBNA stepped up markedly on her previous efforts when readily landing a small-field Brighton maiden last week. Her chief rival didn't fire on that occasion but her pedigree is an ongoing recommendation and she should have more to offer now handicapping. Recent C&D winner Havana Party rates the chief threat, ahead of handicap debutant Night Terrors.

Value

The 7/4 looks to be slightly overpriced, we had priced the Pacafi at 11/8 so north of value. We expect some each way money to come for our two nominated dangers but one imagines the Godolphin filly shortening if giving us a good paddock and then trip to the post after her long journey.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021