WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU 7.00 Kempton

Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-18 for 33%          (10)     
National average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)        
RPR: 86                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/standard       (10)
Distance: 6f                        (10)
Jockey: Hector Crouch                (9)?
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 13%     (10)
Total:                              (98)
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Danger: Antiphon Alt: Sharesa

Class 4 winner on debut, in good race, and with a bit in hand

The Pacafi made his debut in an above-average class 4 maiden at Haydock on good ground. Based on looks and pedigree, so not easy to get a handle on a race involving only newcomers, the suspicion at least is that this will be a race that produces plenty of winners and improvers. He started at 10/3 which also suggested connections thought something of him. He showed signs of greenness before winning by 1¾ lengths from Al Barez, leading over 1f out and having bit in hand. He will clearly stay at least 7f with any amount of scope and improvement!

Trainer form

Clive Cox has his horse in the very best of form, his last 18 runners have produced 6 winners for 33%. The trainer does best with sprinters. He is 1% down on his national average at Kempton but runs lots of horses there yet still records 40-313 for 13%, and when he combines with Hector Crouch they score 61-486 for 13% also. The jockey has become a safe pair of hands, he is on track of beating his best winning score in a calendar year of 65, he currently stands at 55 (+13.06) so many at bigger prices!

Andrew Balding winning at just 9%

Andrew Balding had been smashing his 15% national average from January to August but that has stopped over the past couple of months, in fact it has dropped significantly. September shows 12-123 for 10% and October to date 6-69 for 9% and these numbers played a big part in our nomination! Best to ignore the betting vibes during the day, the market will tell us more about his charge after 6.30pm...

Contender

Antiphon looks a real danger and we know Andrew Balding's juveniles come on for a run, but he has been off the track for 189 days so must have picked up a problem/injury. Whilst he might need a run we accept the strength of the jockey booking in Oisin Murphy. The contender does receive 7lbs from the Pacafi and allied to the jockey booking Hector Crouch will have to grab the rail (stall 3) and run his trip inside Antiphon (stall 6). The Pacafi has the early pace to take advantage of the race, so the start, as usual with sprints of this type, will be critical.

Timeform

 WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU was well on top at the finish on his Haydock debut last month and looks capable of defying a penalty. It's a bit of a concern that Antiphon has been absent since his Newmarket debut in the spring but there were some good horses in that race and he could pose a significant threat if the betting vibes are positive on his return.

Value

On this occasion we were unsure what perceived value was about the Pacafi. We do not believe Sharesa can beat the front two in the market and our initial thoughts was 5/4→11/10 and 6/4→7/4 about the front two and 8/1 bar. This does look between the front two and the 5/4 might look big at 7.05pm...

Whoputfiftyinyou traded at a high of 4.70 and BSP of 4.85 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

Antiphon traded at a low of 13.50 and BSP of 8.64 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field. 

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.