KIND GESTURE 5.50 Wetherby at 11/10

JM Finn Wealth Management Restricted Novice Stakes

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 9-31 for 29%       (10)    
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 40%             (10)                                     
RPR: 85                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                         (9)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: David Egan                  (10)
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate:                  NA                            
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 17%           (10)           
Total:                              (89)
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Danger: Lumley

Optimum distance?

If we have a negative about the Pacafi it could be the optimum distance at this stage of our filly's career. Her dam won twice at 1m and 1m 1f. Our wager was beaten ½l by Pink Carnation when second of 9 as the 13/8 favourite on her racecourse debut at Nottingham over 1m½f on good ground last month, where she was not stopping, just beaten by one with lots more experience! Tomorrow she races over 7f so will be hitting the line hard over the much shorter distance, but must be in the first two or three early on to make use of it.

Can make amends here

It was hard not to be taken by the promise shown by Kind Gesture when sent off a warm order on her debut at Nottingham last month. Denied by a more experienced filly in the closing stages, Roger Varian's charge is expected to have come on for the experience and can make amends here. Worth emphasising she was made the 13/8 favourite so expected to win. Jockey David Egan then tried to win gently/snugly with her, but was outridden in the drive by a hard core Danny Tudhope. She now drops to a Class 6 Maiden from a Class 5.

Trainer form

Roger Varian has his horses in fine form showing 9-32 for 32% in the last 14 days though 10 runners and 4 days since a win. Interesting the trainer has only sent 5 horses to Wetherby and won with 2 of those for 40%. We have questioned the trainer's choice of track and distance for this filly so he has obviously seen something we have missed! Perhaps she has been showing lots of early dash at home and there is a fair bit of clutter in this race. David Egan (11%) should have won on the filly last time and keeps the ride (0-2 at Wetherby), his combination with the trainer shows 102-587 for 17% winning £2,206,775 in prize money

Contenders

Running on that same card was Lumley, who was slightly unlucky not to break the maiden at the third time of asking and can be expected to be in the mix again here. Others to note for places include Panama City and Twilight Falls.

 Timeform

  KIND GESTURE showed plenty of ability on debut and can build on that effort to get off the mark. She was only just denied by one with a couple of runs under her belt at Nottingham 21 days ago, so she could be hard to beat with improvement to come. Lumley looks the main danger having been placed on all 3 of her starts so far, with Twilight Falls open to progress and completing the shortlist.

Value

The 11/10 looks just north of value but we must secure a better price if possible, in fact we must always secure a better price if possible! Please be reminded, we do not log best prices secured, we log the price we advised members so not the same thing. Members should regularly beat our advised prices because we regularly nominate the day before racing, before we have that valuable last minute information or able to take advantage of best price guaranteed! For example, we know two members got 3/1 about Desert Crown on Saturday, most of our stake was on at 7/4 and 15/8 - a huge difference in the scheme of things! 

Kind Gesture traded at a low of 1.04 and Betfair SP of 2.80 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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