PACAFI (Saturday 17 June 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

UNBREAK MY HEART 3.00 Bath at 5/6 bpg

     British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 4) 5f10y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-25 for 20%          (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 27%             (10)                       
RPR: 88                             (10)  
Distance: 5f                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good to firm        (10)
Jockey: John Fahy                   (10) 
National Average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 14%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Good sprinting pedigree

Unbreak My Heart is from a good sprinting pedigree. She is a sister to a Listed-placed 5f 2yo winner Heartwarming (RPR 92) and a half-sister to the yard's Group 2 Queen Mary heroine Heartache. She was expected to need her Salsibury debut experience, but was an eye catcher as she showed some really good promise last month over 5f on fast ground when keeping on steadily behind two previous winners, both of whom harbour Royal Ascot ambitions. She is almost certain to step forward from that outing and be very hard to beat!

The ground at Bath will be firm and both the sire and dam of the Pacafi liked good to firm ground.

Trainer Form

Clive Cox (14%) has his horses in good form. June shows him 5-25 for 20% (+0.89). He is excellent with sprinters and likes bringing his horses to Bath where he scores heavily with 28-104 for 27% (+35.26). We would have preferred Adam Kirby to ride the filly but John Fahy combines well with the trainer also, recording 37-257 for 14% (+51.65). At Bath the jockey scores 4-25 for 16% (+47.33)

Timeform

UNBREAK MY HEART produced a promising first effort in a stronger contest than this at Salisbury last month and, with improvement on the cards, should take a fair bit of beating. Dapperling is feared most.

Value

The 5/6 looks perceived value and looks an 8/11 shot

Unbreak My Heart traded at a low of 14.50 and Betfair SP of 16.47 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

***

 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%

June: 9  WIN: 6  LOSE: 3  S/R: 67%  PROFIT: +2.93

(1L121L111)  FINISHED First or Second (77.78%)

21 Ocean Runner       2.50  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -4.31  S/R 48%
20 Tahiyra            1.50  WIN    1.00  +0.50  -3.31  S/R 50%
19 Ajp Kingdom        1.67  WIN    1.00  +0.67  -3.81  S/R 47%
18 Jaytee R4          2.20  WIN    1.00  +1.08  -4.48  S/R 44%
17 Horantzau D'Airy   1.53  WIN    1.00  +0.53  -5.56  S/R 41%
16 Dubai Dawn         3.50  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -6.09  S/R 38%  
15 Belsito            3.00  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -5.09  S/R 40%
14 Almaty Star        1.73  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -4.09  S/R 43%
13 Silver Lady (S)    3.00  LOSE   1.30  -1.30  -3.09  S/R 46%
12 Wedgewood          1.73  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -1.79  S/R 50%
11 Shayekh            2.20  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -0.79  S/R 56%
10 Aviewtosea         3.50  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  +0.21  S/R 60%
 9 Choccabloc         1.80  WIN    1.00  +0.80  +1.21  S/R 67%
 8 Ballyporeen        1.57  WIN    1.00  +0.57  +0.41  S/R 63%
 7 Coppice            1.50  WIN    1.00  +0.50  -0.16  S/R 57%
 6 Adayar R4          2.20  WIN    1.00  +1.08  -0.66  S/R 50%
 5 Native Trail       2.25  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -1.74  S/R 40%
 4 Hey Lyla           1.53  WIN    1.00  +0.53  -0.74  S/R 50%
 3 Trueshan           2.37  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -1.27  S/R 33%
 2 Spartan Arrow      1.73  WIN    1.00  +0.73  -0.27  S/R 50%
 1 Luxembourg         1.67  LOSE   1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

May: 21 WIN: 10  LOSE: 11  S/R: 48%  LOSS: -4.31

(51412111132333511119)   FINISHED First or Second (61.90%)

16 Epictetus          1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +1.83  S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism          1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.43  S/R 53%
14 Chaldean           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.43  S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway  1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +3.43  S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4   1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.66  +2.60  S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn         1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +1.94  S/R 55%
10 Shishkin           3.00  WIN   1.00  +2.00  +1.61  S/R 50%
 9 Red Riding Hoood   1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  -0.39  S/R 44%
 8 Slipofthepen       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -0.83  S/R 38%
 7 Take No Chances    1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.50  S/R 29%
 6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.50  S/R 33%
 5 Berkshire Shadow   2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 40%
 4 I Giorni (S)       3.00  LOSE  1.50  -1.50  -1.00  S/R 25%
 3 Liberalist         3.50  WIN   1.00  +2.50  +0.50  S/R 33%
 2 Sea Flawless       1.67  LOSE  1.00  +1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Chantico           2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

APRIL: 16 WIN: 9  LOSE: 7  S/R: 56%  PROFIT: +1.83

(4212123111111U21)   FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)

14 Chance The Robin 1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.94  S/R  64%
13 Carrerea         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  62%
12 Englebert        2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.37  S/R  67%
11 Ed Keeper        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +3.37  S/R  73%
10 The Same         2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +2.37  S/R  70%
 9 March Wind       2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  67%
 8 Gail Du Mesnil   2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  75%
 7 Con'tution Hill  1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +1.27  S/R  71%
 6 Coniston George  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.71  +0.83  S/R  67%  R4
 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

MARCH: 14  WIN: 9  LOSE: 5  S/R: 64%  PROFIT: +1.94

(141L1111211831)   FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%

FEBRUARY: 7  WIN: 5  LOSE: 2  S/R: 71%  PROFIT: +2.37

(1212111)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

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