SANDOWN RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 8 July 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Sandown Racecourse Template for Saturday 8 July 2023. There is a 7-race card including 4 Handicaps, a Listed Race, a Group 3 and a Group 1 Race. The going is expected to be good, good to firm in places.

WINNING FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   34-78	44%	-2.96	8-13	  62%	  +7.08
3yo   18-41	44%	-0.36	47-159	  30%	 -29.41
4yo+  12-27	44%	-1.53	32-95	  34%	  +5.59
TOTAL 64-146	44%     -4.85	87-267	  33%	 -16.74

TOP 5 TRAINERS at SANDOWN for past 5 years      +/-   R
C Appleby (29%)	   22-78    28%	    -7.78       -1%   0 
A Balding (15%)	   22-169   13%	   -53.60       -2%   3
W Haggas (23%)	   18-81    22%	   +12.12       -1%   4 
J & T Gosden (21%) 16-75    21%	   -29.01       +0%   4
M Stoute (20%)	   13-74    18%	    -5.04       -2%   0 

HOT TRAINERS 08/06/2023 to 07/07/2023           +/-   E
W Haggas (23%)	     22-94    23%     +3.30     +0%   4
E Walker (14%)	     16-69    23%    +38.28     +9%   2
H Candy (11%)	     3-13     23%     -6.25    +12%   1
H & R Charlton (16%) 10-44    23%     -2.45     +7%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                               E
D O'Meara (12%)	     41    14 days                    2
S C Williams (11%)   27    21 days                    1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at SANDOWN for past 5 years       +/-   R
O Murphy (19%)	 34-172	   20%	  -32.37        +1%   0 
W Buick (23%)	 33-150	   22%	   -2.19        -1%   7
R Moore (18%)    22-112    20%    -11.00        +2%   5   
F Dettori (23%)  20-60	   33%	   +5.39       +10%   0   
T Marquand (15%) 20-124	   16%	  +14.85        +1%   7

HOT JOCKEYS 08/06/2023 to 07/07/2023            +/-   R
R Moore (18%)   21-74	  28%	   +1.07       +10%   5
J Spencer (13%) 5-26	  19%	 +111.60        +6%   4
H Doyle (15%)   18-102	  18%	  +61.99        +3%   6

TOP 5 OWNERS at SANDOWN for past 5 years        +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	      27-115   23%    -10.90    -2%   3
Shadwell Estate (24%) 8-31     26%     +8.16    -2%   0
Juddmonte (23%)       6-22     27%    +10.00    +4%   0
Cheveley Park (17%)   6-33     18%    +13.50    +1%   1  
King Power (14%)      6-48     13%    -25.25    -1%   0  
 
FIXTURES
Saturday 8 July 2023
Wednesday 26 July 2023
Thursday 27 July 2023
Wednesday 2 August 2023

COURSE: Right handed, oval-shaped course 13f in length with a straight of ½ a mile. Essentially a fair, galloping course which places the emphasis on stamina courtesy of a gradual climb from the home turn. On soft ground the jockeys sometimes tack across to the stand side in the straight and this can lead to horses racing wide apart. The 5f track runs across the main circuit and rises steadily throughout.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Sandown over the past 5 years show 151-413 for 36.56 (-21.59) so at around 4% above the national average. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 64-146 for 44% and a loss of -4.85 whilst those in handicaps score 87-267 for 33% (-16.74).

TRAINERS: Karl Burke (13%) has hit form with a vengeance, 7 of his last 12 runners have won at 58%. His Sandown figures are poor showing just 3-33 for 9% but interestingly he has 4 runners at the course today and 2 in each of 2 races. Given his form we need to process and filter MARSHMAN (Ryan Moore) & LADY HAMANA (Andrea Atzeni) 1.50 and then MISS JUNGLE CAT (Trevor Whelan) & BLACK SEE DAA (Jason Watson) 3.00. If they all stand their ground he sends out 19 runners in total, so the suggestion is he will have a number of winners. We may play this angle with a separate bank knowing he will have winners!

J & T Gosden (21%) has 4 runners at the course and we believe EMILY UPJOHN will beat Paddington in a tactical match. The betting has them 13/8 and 4/5 respectively and we have the pair joint-favourites. It could easily depend on the tactical skills of William Buick and Ryam Moore.

William Haggas (23%) matches his national average at this track and has 5 interesting runners, 4 of them with chances, they include TIBER FLOW 1.50, MYSTIC PEARL 3.00, DUBAI HONOUR 3.40, ARAMAIC 4.15 & RAMENSKY 5.25

David O'Meara (12%) is on the cold list 0-41 and 1-52 in the last 14 days, he runs two at big prices in the same race, see ESCOBAR (J Spencer) & ORBAAN (J Watson) 2.25

JOCKEYS: William Buick (23%) has a full book of 7 rides and so does Tom Marquand (14%). Ryan Moore (18%) has 5 rides and they will surely provide the headlines. Oisin Murphy (19%) might make his own headlines on the other side of the Atlantic - see Red Flag.

Hollie Doyle (15%) has 6 rides and could ride a winner.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have 3 runners including MAJOR PARTNERSHIP 2.25 (Saeed bin Suroor), BRIDESTONES 3.00 & HONITON 4.15 (J & T Gosden)

Cheveley Park Stud (16%) run KARSAVINA 3.00 trained by Clive Cox and to be ridden by Rossa Ryan.

RED FLAG: Racing is a funny old game and things can change in an instant! King Power Racing (13%) are currently in the doldrums. We love the word doldrums and use it more than is necessary, but on this occasion we are pertinent. June showed the owners at 1-36 and July so far shows 0-2 making their runners 1-38 for 2.63% (-34.45). Tomorrow the Andrew Balding Team sends THE FOXES 10.49 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) to race on the Inner Turf and their charge looks to have a real chance of winning the £343,750 first prize and we are considering staking.

The 3yo Churchill colt has 10 rivals and if he has had a good trip over it looks at first glance he has his American rivals covered, however he has to beat the Charlie Appleby-trained Silver Knott and we think he will. Oisin Murphy rides and this only helps our argument. After The Foxes run in the Derby, Oisin told us: "The Foxes travelled brilliantly behind Auguste Rodin. At the bottom of the straight I switched out and I thought I had a chance to win, but a mile and a half is a little bit too far for him. We will come back to a mile and a quarter." So it looks as if the colt has the form, class and optimum conditions to run well. He does have stall 11 of 11 to contend with but the American horses go off fast and Oisin should find a pitch!

Current prices about the two horses show 11/4 The Foxes 4/1 Silver Knott 5/1 Bar, but we can expect to beat both prices, so we are currently considering a win on The Foxes and a stake saver on Silver Knott. Before this race King Power have 5 runners and we cannot spot an obvious winner so they could be 1-43 come the race. Oisin Murphy has 2 rides at the course, and has been booked by J A Stack (Ireland) for his ASPEN GROVE an hour earlier.

UPDATE 05.19: The Racing Post has since reported The Foxes struggled in the heat when galloped at the track on Thursday. We will not stake until we see him the paddock and walk to post, this is bad news and tempers enthusiasm...

PERTINENCE

1.50 (Favs: 44%)
TIBER FLOW (W Haggas) winner in the last 7 days, 4-5 on AW but 1-6 on Turf, Tom Marquand rides
MARSHMAN (K Burke) Group 3 winner over 5½f in April, dropped to bare 5f at Chantilly (close third in Group 2), place chance at least, Ryan Moore rides
EQUALITY (C Hills) defied top weight in Class 2 Windsor 5f Handicap last month, producing smart RPR, William Buick rides

2.25
PEROTTO (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, first time hood, Tom Marquand rides
INDEMNIFY (A Haynes) formerly with R Varian, Kieran O'Neill rides
OUZO (J Osborne) course winner and runs best races at this track, Saffie Osborne rides

3.00 (Favs: 44%)
MAGICAL SUNSET (R Hannon) 2yo Listed winner (7f, heavy) was suited by step up in trip when staying-on 4th at Epsom, Pat Dobbs rides
BRIDESTONES (J & T Gosden) not ready on seasonal debut, entered Group 1 next time out in France, William Buick rides
STENTON GLIDER (H Palmer) highly tried and Group filly running in a Listed, Andrea Atzeni rides

3.40 (Favs: 44%)
EMILY UPJOHN (J & T Gosden) C&D winner, won Coronation Cup in a matter of strides on her return at Epsom 5 weeks ago. William Buick rides

4.15
ARAMAIC (W Haggas) beaten favourite last time out, first time tongue strap, Tom Marquand rides
MUSTAZEED (H Eustace) back-to-back Newbury Handicaps wins for new yard, 5lb rise looks OK, Hayley Turner rides
MAJESTIC (J Channon) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides

4.50
NEW BUSINESS (A Balding) improver, showed ability in 1m events then proved suited to 7f at Kempton (AW) making all, William Buick rides
PROSPERING (E Walker) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
TIGER BAY (H Candy) beaten favourite last time out, Trevor Whelan rides

5.25
ENTRANCEMENT (D Menuisier) wins have come on heavy but real chance if handling ground, Jamie Spencer rides
BLUE YONDER (R Fahey) beaten favourite last time out, Rossa Ryan rides
RIBAL (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, Hollie Doyle rides

There’s no doubt it’s a big advantage being on the far rail up Sandown’s sprint course and a lot of horses drawn badly, even in medium-sized fields, fail to get into contention. It can be tricky in a finish, too, with a lot happening in the final furlong, and there’s no surprise that it lends itself to front-runners. They always seem to go quick down the back on the round course, and it’s quite a long way from the bottom of the hill to the winning post, but horses really stretch out on that kind final rise to the line - Jason Weaver
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