PERCEIVED VALUE 

The Racing Horse believes 'mathematics are the governing force of horse racing betting' meaning value betting is absolutely critical/essential to profit! The secret to successful betting lies in recognising situations where the available odds exceed the actual probability of winning, coupled with the discipline to wager only in these scenarios. Adhering to this approach ensures that, over time, the principles of mathematics and probability will guarantee a profit.

The concept of value is undoubtedly the most misunderstood and misapplied term in horse racing betting. Many bettors mistakenly equate higher odds with better value, which is not necessarily true. True perceived value can be present in odds of 4/9, 7/4, 11/4, 8/1, or even 33/1; it can exist at any price point.

Gambler Harry Findlay announced that he had backed his horse, Denman, in a minor race at Bangor with odds of about 1/12, resulting in a win of £33,000 from a £360,000 stake. He described it as the easiest money he had ever made and speculated that the horse would be at 1/25 odds if the race were run today.

The term "perceived value" is preferable to "value" because absolute certainty about the true value of anything is unattainable on Earth. In racing, all is speculative due to the dynamic interplay between humans and animals competing against others. Each event unfolds in unique circumstances, with no two scenarios ever being exactly alike.

The theory of value is every horse in a race has a chance of some sort to win, that chance can be translated into odds that represents its true chance of winning. For example, a horse with a 50% chance of winning should be offered at even money whilst one with a 25% chance should be 3/1. 

Typically, bookmakers provide the public with odds, offering a numerical estimation of a horse's chances. Consider a horse presented at 3/1, implying a 25% chance of winning. This suggests that if you bet on this horse across an infinite series of wagers, the horse would need to win 25% of the time to break even. The term 'infinite' is used because a single bet or a short series of bets can be significantly affected by what are essentially random factors. A genuine 3/1 chance might lose 46 times consecutively, yet over an infinite or sufficiently long series of bets, the losses would be offset by wins, achieving a break-even point. It's crucial to fully grasp the concept of an infinite sequence.

Whilst bookmakers are skilled at converting perceived chances into odds, it still remains a subjective task; verifying the true likelihood of a horse winning a race is beyond human capability. However, with experience, one can spot value discrepancies in the prices offered by bookmakers and layers.

• A value bet is one where the bettor believes the true odds are shorter than those offered by the bookmaker.
• A single win bet represents the best chance of finding value - you never see a bookmaker advertising win singles.
• Betting at Starting Price (SP) is tantamount to folly. It essentially means the bettor is giving up an advantage to the bookmaker and ignoring the fundamental principles and mathematical framework of betting. It is crucial for the bettor to always seek the best prices.

Possessing multiple bookmaker accounts and a Betfair Exchange account is crucial when searching for perceived value. However, maintaining these accounts open requires a deft touch from the bettor. We used to trade daily between bookmakers and exchanges to disguise our betting patterns. Unfortunately, most of our accounts have been closed, or the current ones do not offer the best price guaranteed.

Due to betting restrictions on our accounts, we are inevitably transitioning almost fully to Betfair Exchange, a decision we have reluctantly accepted. On Betfair Exchange, odds are determined by individuals rather than professional bookmakers' odds compilers. This allows one to request a price, offering the chance to place a bet at what one deems to be fair value, and with accurate race analysis, one is likely to get matched frequently. Our reported results reflect the advised prices from bookmakers at specific times, yet our actual monthly profits are consistently 20% to 30% greater.

Assuming bettors are attuned to the psychological aspects of sports betting, identifying perceived value and securing bets at that value price, becomes the primary objective in sports betting.

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