The Racing Horse offers our WOLVERHAMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 18 November 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 6 Handicaps and 3 Novice Stake Races. The going for the Tapeta Surface is expected to be standard.

Winning favourites (last 5 seasons)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo   107   260	  41%	-45.40	  43	125   34%   +11.46
3yo   166   338	  49%	-13.34	  262	756   35%   -49.75
4yo+   78   173	  45%	+13.50	  420  1378   30%  -148.83
TOTAL 351   771	  46%	-45.24	  725  2259   32%  -187.12

Top 5 Trainers last 5 seasons                     +/-    E
Tony Carroll (10%)	84-957	  9%   -208.39    -1%    2
Mark Loughnane (9%)	71-670	 11%	-94.89    +2%    1
Michael Appleby (11%)	70-595	 12%	 +6.92    +1%    0
David Evans (11%)	58-542	 11%   -130.67    +0%    0
George Boughey (17%)	57-358	 16%	-26.22    -1%    3

Top 5 Jockeys last 5 seasons                      +/-    R
Rossa Ryan (16%)      123-592	 21%    +90.20    +5%    7
Luke Morris (9%)      116-1010	 12%   -223.87    +3%    3
Hollie Doyle (14%)     90-593	 15%   -170.24    +1%    0
David Probert (12%)    82-701	 12%   -105.96    +0%    5
Jack Mitchell (16%)    79-443	 18%	-69.73    +2%    3

Top 5 Owners last 5 seasons                       +/-    E
Godolphin (25%)	        57-185	 31%	-20.31    +6%    0
Saeed Manana (16%)	24-109	 22%	+13.43    +6%    0
Ahmed A Maktoum (023%)	21-57	 37%	 +3.98   +14%    0
Power Geneva (14%)	19-121	 16%	-13.22    +2%    0
Antony Brittain (8%)	15-207	  7%	-89.83    -1%    0

Upcoming fixtures
Monday 18 November 2024		
Thursday 21 November 2024	
Saturday 23 November 2024		

CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.

JASON WEAVER SAYS: Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair.

WINNING FAVOURITES:  Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!

• Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 1076-3030 for 35.51% so nearly 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£232.36 to a £1 win stake.
• Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 46%
• Winning favourites in handicaps score at 32%
• Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 166-338 for 49% (-13.34)
• Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 420-1378 for 30% (-148.83)
• Differential between best and worst category is a huge 19%
• Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (10%) but largely based on volume, not on quality
• Top jockey at the course is Rossa Ryan (16%) Note: For 2024 so far he shows 33-139 for 24% (++44.79) so +8% above his national average, suggesting each of his rides must be filtered.
• Godolphin (25%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 31% so +6% above their national average.

TRAINERS: Three of the top 5 trainers have an interest at this meeting. Tony Carroll (10%) has 2 runners including TOUSSAROK 7.00 & WALK THE MOON 8.30. George Boughey (17%) has 3 runners including BAD HABITS & STAGE WINNER 6.00 and GIORGIO M 6.30. Mark Loughnane (9%) has a single entry in HEARTRATE 7.00

JOCKEYS; Rossa Ryan (16%) has 7 rides including SKYELIGHT 4.30, MISS CARTESIAN 5.30 (R Beckett), THE QUIET GENT 6.00 (R Beckett), BATAL ZABEEL 6.30, ALAFDHAL 7.00, VINCE LOMBARDI 7.30 & SEXY REXY 8.30

As predicted David Probert (12%) recorded his 200th winner at Wolverhampton with 9/1 and 6/4 winners, he has 5 rides tomorrow including PURE ARTISTRY 4.30, BE AN ANGEL 5.00, CHIEF MANKATO 6.30, NOT JUST YET 7.00 & CAUSTIC 8.00.

Luke Morris (9%) has 3 rides including LAYLA LIZ 5.00, TOUSSAROK 7.00 & ALRAZEEN 8.00

OWNERS: On this occasion none of the top 5 owners have a runner for this meeting

RED FLAG: It is late in the season so this information is probably past its sell-by date, but we can use it in preparation for next season, so the numbers below are well worth a cut and paste. Ralph Beckett has a national average of 18% but 2024 has shown him score at 20% which in itself is significant. His ability to prepare 2yos is superb and this year shows 48-201 for 25% (+5.95). Of those beaten, 46 came second meaning 94-201 for 47% finished in the first two making his entries a fabulous tool for forecast betting. His winning juveniles score +6% above his national average and ironically his 3yos score below his average at 17%. His combination with jockey Rossa Ryan this year shows 47-217 for 22% winning close to £2m in prize money. The combination has 2 entries and both are 2yos having their first starts, they include MISS CARTESIAN 5.30 & THE QUIET GENT 6.00.

2yo    48  201  24%   +5.95
3yo    54  318  17%  -65.14
4yo+   21   97  22%  +46.71
Total 123  616  20%  -12.52

4.30: 1m142y BetMGM Nursery Handicap  Week (Class 6) (2yo 0-60)

• Winning favourites 34%
• PURE ARTISTRY (M Bell) beaten favourite last time out, more needed but possible if step up in trip helps, first time tongue strap, David Probert rides ++++
• MANARA (K P De Foy) winner in the last 7 days, won with more in hand than margin of victory suggest when landing gamble on her nursery debut at Chelmsford. Should win if run does not come too soon, stall 2 to help. David Egan rides +++++
• SOL AGENT (R Hannon) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, interesting if price is right. Thomas Greatrex rides ++

5.00: 6f20y BetMGM Extra EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 1) (Class 5) (2yo)

• Winning favourites 41%
• LAYLA LIZ (A Watson) won on debut in Class 4 Novice at Leicester on heavy ground despite greenness, stiffer task carrying a penalty, Luke Morris rides +++++ 
• BE MY ANGEL (R Millman) beaten by Layla Liz, now receives 7lbs so entitled to be closer, David Probert rides ++++
• TABBY (D Quinn) going the right way after 3 starts, trainer 5% strike rate a big problem so place chance only. David Egan rides +

5.30: 6f20y BetMGM Extra EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 2) (Class 5) (2yo)

• Winning favourites 41%
• MISS CARTESIAN (R Beckett) 172 of Kodiac's progeny have won on debut, trainer 48-201 for 24% (+5.85) with 2yos this year. €50,000 yearling and attractively bred so interesting newcomer. Rossa Ryan rides ++++
• FIORELLA PRINCESS (A Murphy) taken to follow up her recent Chelmsford success under a penalty with further improvement expected, Adam Farragher rides and 37% on favourites +++++
• OASIS SUNRISE (K P De Foy) most experienced and entitled to run third without winning, Benoit De La Sayette rides ++

6.00: 6f20y BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

• Winning favourites 41%
• GOOD BANTER (C Cox) won well here 8 weeks ago, looks promising with RPR of 95, chance to follow up, Richard Kingscote rides +++++
• THE QUIET GENT (R Beckett) trainer 48-201 for 24% (+5.85) with 2yos this year, 40,000gns yearling so market check. Rossa Ryan rides ++++
• NANAA'S SPARKE (A Haynes) last time out winner with RPR of 87, could progress, Kieran O'Neill rides +++ 

6.30: 6f20y BetUK Handicap (Class 4) (3yo 0-82)

• TRUE PROMISE (K Ryan) seeking hat-trick, 4-6 on AW, Oisin McSweeney (3) rides +++++ 
• ABERAMA GOLD (D O'Meara) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, this 7yo usually runs in better races. David Nolan rides +++++
• MANY A STAR (J Osborne) beaten favourite last time out, exposed but running off last winning mark, place claims. William Carver rides +

7.00: 6f 20y BetUK Handicap (Class 6) (3yo 0-60)

• Winning favourites 30%
• BEAUZON (I Williams) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, winner in the last 7 days, first and third over the course the last twice now weighted to win 68 > 54. Charles Bishop rides +++++
• SMASHER (M Attwater) C&D winner, thrived here earlier this year, could get back on the up after his Kempton return. Paddy Bradley rides +++
• ALAFDHAL (P McEntee) C&D winner, good 2 of 10 in handicap here when heavily gambled on just 7 days ago, beaten 1½l or less in six of last seven starts, threatening a 10th career win. Rossa Ryan rides ++++

7.30: 7f36y BetMGM Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75

• CHARENCY (I Williams) drops from Class 3 to Class 5, wind surgery to help chances. Charles Bishop rides +++++
• VIBRATO (J Candlish) suited by switch to 7f at Newcastle last time, could well build on that win though stall 9 not helpful. George Wood rides +++ 
• BLUELIGHT BAY (E Johnson-Houghton) returned to form when 3rd at Kempton last time, finishing well having been caught further back than ideal, stall 12 a negative. David Egan rides +++

8.00: 2m120y BetUK Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80)

• CAUSTIC (O Burrows) trainer 21% with horses 10f+ and +£44.65 when one runner at a meeting, David Probert rides ++++
• SIMIYAAN (I Williams) drops from Class 3 to Class 5, record shows 5211 at this venue, Richard Kingscote rides +++++
• ALRAZEEN (G Kelleway) beaten favourite last time out, Luke Morris rides + 

8.30: 1m4y51y BetUK Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-52)

• KHANGAI (J Owen) resumed winning ways at second time of asking for yard when landing 16-runner Southwell handicap last month, the one to beat, R Mulligan (7) rides and is 1-3 for 33% for UK career to date +++++
• OCEAN RIDGE (T Faulkner) C&D winner here on his latest run on Flat, returning from break so market check. Billy Loughnane rides ++++
• HARLINGTON (J Tickle) of interest now significantly back up in trip, forget last run poor trip, Sean Levey rides +++

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