KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 4 December 2024)
December 3rd, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our KEMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Wednesday 4 December 2024. There is a[...]
The Racing Horse offers our CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 15 November 2024. There is a 6-race card including a Grade 2 Hurdle Race, and a Grade 2 Chase Race. The going is expected to be good.
Winning favourites last 5 seasons Non-handicaps Handicaps Hurdle 42 100 42% -12.72 20 90 22% -21.84 Chase 48 104 46% +2.35 29 116 25% -21.79 NHF 8 25 32% +0.38 0 0 TOTAL 98 229 43% -9.99 49 206 24% -43.64 Top 5 Trainers last 5 seasons +/- E W P Mullins (14%) 36-285 13% -147.75 -1% 0 Nicky Henderson (20%) 28-194 14% -34.30 -6% 3 Dan Skelton (18%) 25-205 12% -44.91 -6% 2 Henry De Bromhead (13%) 21-130 16% +18.77 +3% 1 Paul Nicholls (25%) 19-194 10% -72.75 -15% 1 Top 5 Jockeys last 5 seasons +/- R Harry Skelton (22%) 22-161 14% -55.91 -8% 2 Paul Townend (24%) 21-79 27% -18.65 +3% 0 N de Boinville (22%) 20-119 17% -9.62 -5% 3 S Twiston-Davies (15%) 20-169 12% -48.77 -3% 2 Harry Cobden (23%) 18-167 11% -39.41 -12% 1 Top 5 Owners last 5 seasons +/- E John P McManus (17%) 22-193 11% -65.31 -6% 1 Cheveley Park (17%) 7-23 30% +1.92 +13% 0 Robcour (21%) 6-33 18% -16.30 -3% 0 Mrs J Donnelly (31%) 6-35 17% -21.37 -14% 0 Mrs S Ricci (21%) 6-38 16% -25.68 -5% 0 Upcoming fixtures Saturday 16 November 2024 Sunday 17 November 2024
CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Stiff fences that place a premium on sound jumping. The last half mile is uphill, although the lead changes hands on the run-in less frequently than might be expected. Prominent-racers often fare well on the chase course, especially in races up to 3m. On the New Course, the hurdles track has just two flights in the last six furlongs, resulting in more emphasis on stamina; large-field races over two miles often go to hold-up horses, as there can be a tendency to go for home too soon. Jockeys often steer a wide course in the winter months searching for better ground and this can lead to trouble in-running towards the stand rail in the straight.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 147-435 for 33.79% and a loss of -53.63. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 98-229 for 43% and a level stake loss -9.99, whilst winning favourites in handicaps show 49-206 for 24% (-43.64) for a 19% disparity.
TRAINERS: Even the best trainers in the UK & Ireland have low strike rates at Cheltenham and is the nature of things. Nicky Henderson (20%) has 3 runners and looks certain to score, his entries include HYLAND 1.45, JONBON 2.20 & MISTER COFFEY 2.55 all to be ridden by Nico de Boinville (22%). The team will be bitterly disappointed if Jonbon does not win. Henderson believes Jonbon lining up on Friday rather than Sunday will be helpful as it will allow the 8yo to get best use of the ground, and confirmed he could not be happier with his charge. But what price is value? TRH would be interested at 1/2 and 4/7 would be great, though this race looks all about a kind trip, we doubt tactics will have a role in things!
Dan Skelton (18%) has 2 runners including UNEXPECTED PARTY 2.20 & VALGRAND 3.30 both to be ridden by Harry Skelton (22%).
These days trainer Paul Nicholls (23%) scores a moderate 10% at the course, largely down to his obsession with winning the trainers championship, meaning he acquires a different kind of horse than one suited to the rigours of Cheltenham. TRH would argue his 19-194 for 10% are wretched figures given his status. He has a single entry for Friday with the unexposed FASOL 4.00, and whilst he has a bit to find on the figures with some of his rivals, carries just 11st 1lb in this Novices' Handicap Hurdle, he will be well ridden by Harry Cobden.
JOCKEYS; Sam Twiston-Davies (15%) has 2 rides for his father, and a great chance of a winner, his rides include POTTERS CHARM 3.30 & CLAP OF THUNDER 4.00.
OWNERS: Only J P McManus (17%) of the top owners has a runner and he will be hoping JONBON 2.20 will supply him his 164th winner at Cheltenham and winning over £12m in prizemoney at this course.
1.10: 2m5f (Old) Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-125)
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- Favourites 22%
- 15/15: ran over hurdles last time out (100%)
- 15/15: aged 5yo to 7yo (100%)
- WHATSUPWITHYOU (B Pauling) beaten favourite last time out, now a 10yo. Callum Pritchard (10) rides
- TUNE IN A BOX (T Lacey) useful handicap hurdler, successful 4 times in 2023/24, off 6 months and needed run last time, Cameron Isles (6) rides
- PLASIR DES FLOS ( F O'Brien) seeking 6-timer, up another 7lb which makes things tougher. Jack Hogan (3) rides
- DOUBLE POWERFUL (N Mulholland) seeking 6-timer, winner in the past 7 days, Dylan Johnston rides
1.45: 3m5f110y (Old) Mucking Brilliant Power Novices' Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
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- Favourites 46%
- RESPLENDENT GREY (O Murphy) looked a smart novice in the making at Uttoxeter, looks ready for step up in trip and class seeking the hat-trick, Sean Bowen rides
2.20: 1m7f199y (Old) Shloer Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
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- Favourites 46%
- JONBON (N Henderson) C&D winner OR 170, won 9 of 11 chases, impossible to oppose with a kind trip. Nico de Boinville rides
- 12/12 at least 1 previous win in a Grade 1-3 race (100%)
- 12/12 at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham (100%)
- 11/12 at least 3 previous chase wins (92%)
- 10/12 aged between 6 & 8yo (83%)
2.55: 3m5f56y Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
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- Favourites 25%
- BUSSELTON (J P O'Brien) drops from Grade 3 to Class 2, trainer +£11.71 when one runner on the card. Richard Deegan rides
- CONFLATED (G Elliott) drops from Grade 2 to Class 2, twice placed in Grade 1s, Rob James rides
- SLIPWAY (B Pauling) strong stayer who dispelled low-key efforts when resuming at Kempton (3m) in March. Well held in Bet365 Gold Cup on final start in April but returns to action with his yard in rude health. Ben Jones rides
3.30: 2m5f (Old) Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
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- Favourites 42%
- POTTERS CHARM (N Twiston-Davies) seeking hat-trick, Sam Twiston-Davies rides
- VALGRAND (D Skelton) seeking 4-timer, Harry Skelton rides
- 12/12 at least 1 run that season (100%)
- 12/12 ran within the last 38 days (100%)
- 11/12 at least 1 win that season (92%)
- 11/12 at least 1 win over hurdles (92%)
- 11/12 finished in the top 2 on last run (92%)
4.00: 2m87y (Old) Valda Energy Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-125)
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- Favourites 22%
- BALHAMBAR (H Derham) beaten favourite last time out, Paul O'Brien rides
- GOLDEN MAVERICK (J Snowden) beaten favourite last time out, Gavin Sheehan rides
- WRECKLESS ERIC (J & A O'Neill) beaten favourite last time out, Kielan Woods rides
- FASOL (P Nicholls) trainer 29% with hurdlers up to 2m2f, and +£36.72 using first time headgear and +£13.53 when one runner on the card. Harry Cobden rides
Cheltenham and Mick FitzgeraldTo the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late - someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line. |