TIBER FLOW 2.40 Newcastle at 8/13

 Watch Racing Free Online At Coral Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f14y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-4 for 25%           (10)     
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 28%             (10)        
RPR: 93                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Danny Tudhope               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 31%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Zameka

Step up to 7f looks ideal

Tiber Flow is the first foal of a two-time 7f-1m Group 3 winner. He made the perfect start to his racing career when scoring comfortably over 6f here last month, and the step up to 7f looks ideal at this stage. Watching the race live at the time and since, he looked the winner throughout the race, and given his scope for improvement from two to three suggests the penalty should not stop him. The trainer send his charge here instead of Lingfield on Tuesday and at a course where he excels with his northern raiders.

Trainer and jockey form

William Haggas has great figures at Newcastle, his last 5-year figures show 32-113 for 28% (-1.97) so 6% above his national average of 22%. His combination with jockey Danny Tudhope, who rides this track particularly well and takes the ride, shows 55-177 for a big 31%. Tudhope has a national average of 17% but rides the course at 19%. The team combine on two runners today and they could score a win double.

Contender

Zameka is in receipt of 7lb and lost little in defeat when three-parts of a length third on his introduction over this distance at Kempton in November (winner has since followed up) and that experience certainly won't have been lost on him. The jockey booking of Jefferson Smith does not shout winner and it is our view the penalty is negated because of it. We do not know much about this jockey other than his lowest riding weight is 8st 9lbs and he has ridden 2 winners in his career from 31 rides for 6%, both winners for Varian. He has never ridden at Newcastle before which is a major negative for Zameka.

Timeform

 TIBER FLOW created an excellent impression when making a winning debut here and is fancied to defy his 7 lb penalty and go in again. Zameka also has better days ahead of him so should ensure that the selection doesn't have things all his own way, with King of York the pick of the remaining duo. 

Value

On this occasion we are not certain what perceived value should be. Our pre-race analysis asked for 8/11 but we have taken the 8/13 believing that is just inside the perceived value bandwidth, given the rationale above.

Zameka traded at a low of 1.03 and Betfair SP of 15.00 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently: Tiber Flow traded at a high of 25.00 and Betfair SP of 6.20 when winning last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear and travelled strongly early on.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.