JOCKEY COMPETENCE

So, our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance beckons, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling, training and preparation with a negative jockey booking? Trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available, they might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted by the owner, rides work or a favoured son, but the bettor has no such restrictions. 

It is hard to measure or be scientific about the importance of the role of the jockey in a particular race. We do know they are the conduit from the trainer and the horse's preparation, and it is their skill-set and split-second decision-making that heavily contributes to the result and any consequent profit and loss. Even in 2023 this factor remains grossly underestimated in those serious betting decisions, and certainly not argument-weighted in the framing of the market. We take this opportunity to elaborate.

Everything in racing is an estimate, nothing is absolute, jockey bookings are the same, but their role is most critical within the race itself. It is impossible to measure, but every jockey booking ever made has a negative or positive impact or quality quotient, and this allegorical number varies from day to day and course to course. This help versus hinder estimate must be factored-in when profiling a race.

As part of our composite (which accompanies each and every Pacafi), we look at jockey competence and mark them accordingly. The mark reflects context, skill, proficiency and strike rate, so math-based. Naturally this is open to some conjecture especially given jockeys perform differently, better or worse on the different AW Courses (inc Polytrack, Tapeta and Fibresand) and again much differently on the AW to Turf.

The jockey is not just the conduit from trainer to horse, the moment he/she mounts the horse in the paddock until he/she returns, every movement and thought process is transmitted then received into the animal's brain, and they will remember the experience. This acquaintance or association not only offers an optimum finishing position, but one able to teach and communicate with the horse going forward.

But that's not all. After the race a certain number of jockeys are able to pass on to the trainer and owners the most valuable and critical information not readily available to the betting public that would otherwise be missed, lost or not deemed useful. Each jockey is not equal in this regard, in fact there is a gulf between the best and the worst.

Clearly jockeys are one of the most important yet underestimated factors in horse racing betting. Anyone can view the rating of a horse, know the value of the trainer, but cannot quantify or estimate the value of the pilot so data deficient. Because of our demand for high strike rate we only back the top-tier jockeys, and do not subscribe to the view their riding ability and tactical acumen is factored into the price of the horse. In ALL my years of betting I have never heard anyone say: "Yes, I backed this horse at 7/1 with Rhys Clutterbuck riding and I factored the jockey skill set into the price!"

So, backing a moderate or inexperienced jockey irrespective of the price on offer, is not conducive to our style of betting. It is at odds with our demand for high strike rates and low to no risk betting. Suffice it to say if one wants to maximise success as a punter you must seriously reconsider jockey competence, failing that secure a perceived value price that takes his or her numeric value into account.

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