2016 Grand National

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2016 Grand National

The Racing Horse has looked at Grand National history to help identify those horses with the best chance of winning today and by using some steadfast trends some fancied horses seem to have little chance. One undeniable fact is that 23/24 winners had their last run 21-49 days before National (2012 winner Neptune Collonges had last run 56 days prior). It must be reasonable to assume this trend will  continue!

That statistic rules out eight runners including First Lieutenant, Wonderful Charm, Sir Des Champs, Soll, Buywise, Ucello Conti, Black Thunder and Pendra. Sorry Nina no female to win this year!

Since 2007 all winners came within this classification:

 8-11yo
Maximum weight of 11st 9lbs
Top four finish within the last 5 races
Has won at least once over 3 miles
At least three runs this season

This category rules out another 17 runners that includes favourite Many Clouds, On His Own, Aachen, Vics Canvas, Vieux Lion Rouge, Ballynagour, Katenko, The Romford Pele, Home Farm, Hadrian’s Approach, Kruzhlinin, Shutthefrontdoor, Triolo D’Alene, Gilgamgoa, Double Ross, Ballycasey and Rule The World.

That leaves the following horses in general price order: 12 THE LAST SAMURI 14 SILVINIACO CONTI 16 THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 16 HOLYWELL 18 SAINT ARE 18 GALLANT OSCAR 22 GOONYELLA 25 MORNING ASSEMBLY 33 BOSTON BOB 33 UNIONISTE 40 ONENIGHTINVIENNA 50 JUST A PAR 66 LA REVE 80 ROCKY CREEK 

Interestingly six of the last 10 winners ran over hurdles in the same season though that did not apply to Many Clouds last year. No horse younger than 8yo has won the race since 1940 and we have to go back to 1923 to find a winner older than 12yo.

***

Most of us accept the race has been drastically altered in recent years so old trends may not be quite so relevant but they are interesting. Check these trends out over the last 25 years:

 25/25: Ran no more than 55 days ago
 24/25: Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
 24/25: Officially rated 137 or higher
 23/25: Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
 22/25: Aged 9yo or older
 20/25: Ran no more than 34 days ago
 20/25: Returned a double-figure price
 19/25: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
 19/25: Carried 10st 12lbs or less
 18/25: Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
 15/25: Carried 10st 8lbs or less
 14/25: Finished in the top 4 last time out
 14/25: Aged 10yo or younger
 13/25: Placed favourites
 13/25: Aged 9 or 10yo
 13/25: Won by an Irish-bred horse
  9/25: Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  7/25: Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 10 years)
  5/25: Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  4/25: Won last time out
  2/25: Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  2/25: Ridden by Ruby Walsh
  2/25: Ridden by Leighton Aspell
  0/25: Won by a horse aged 7yo or less

Other Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 116 horses have tried to win with more than 11st 5lbs with just two winners - Many Clouds (11st 9lbs) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11st 6lbs) in 2012
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were bred in Ireland
  • Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had won or been placed in a National-type
    race before.
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in
    the season
  • 5 of the last 15 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only two 8yo have won the last 22 renewals
  • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year's race has won for 32 years (73 have attempted)
  • 17 of the last 19 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers

Many Clouds

Today's Pacafi: click here
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