LIGHT LILY 4.35 Southwell at 13/8
Pedigree: Third foal; half-sister to French 7.5f winner She's Still Mine; dam 1m AW/turf winner (Group placed on AW; RPR 101), granddaughter of 1m2f Group 2 (Nassau) winner Nom De Plume
Trainer Form: 1-2 for 50% (10)
RPR: 67 (9)←
Optimum Ground: Fibresand (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m (10)
Jockey: George Rooke (9)←
The Racing Horse Composite: (48)
Main danger: Never Said Nothing 2/1
This is our first Pacafi in a Class 6 Handicap Apprentice race and with a horse officially rated just 51, we have never done this before so need to make a case for this filly but the decision was a simple one!
Visually impressive - more to come from her
Light Lily produced an almighty shock when winning at 50/1 on this course over 7f last week staying on impressively (relatively speaking) and hitting the line hard. The mile looks within her range and looks an improving filly because that was her first start on the Fibresand having been fitted with a tongue-tie and there must be more come from her.
At the time we were visually impressed with her effort but not realised how good it was on the clock and because we are talking about a Class 6 Handicap the clock takes on more significance!
We readily accept asking basement horses to reproduce next time up is the biggest negative but visually she was impressive and if she is none the worst for the run just needs competence from George Rooke in the saddle. He is a 3lbs claimer but so are most of the other jockeys and the two with more experience ride no-hopers at 14/1 and 66/1. We were duty bound to see how well he rides the course and he beats his average with 4-34 for 12% with 10 more second places. He has already won 10-89 for 11% beating last years 7-89 for 8%. He weighs just 7st 9lbs and one could easily ask where does the strength in the saddle come from but Tyler Saunders carries more dead weight on the main danger and, please note, he has never ridden at the course let alone win a race! Course form at Southwell is everything!
Just a word on the Brodick ride and 8st Rhona Pindar and she is a 6% strike rate winner but has scored 3 winners from 36 rides for 8%.
Of her rivals
Never Said Nothing is another recent winner though only landed a lowly seller at Wolverhampton whilst Speed Dating is preferred back on this surface have been narrowly beaten over track and trip on his penultimate start. Brodick never threatened when fourth in maiden company over track and trip but is unexposed and trained by Fibresand maestro Karl Burke and will surely improve now handicapping and is one to keep an eye on.
There was no fluke about LIGHT LILY's 50/1 win on last week's fibresand debut given that effort was backed up by the clock and she can follow up under a penalty with the return to 1m expected to suit. Brodick is feared most on handicap debut.
We would have taken 6/4 and maybe 11/8 about this filly so delighted to have secured 13/8. The main danger won a weak seller last time so unless Brodrick massively steps up ought to win at a great price! We considered backing a bigger stake but jockey competence is our main concern.
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