The prerequisite to winning this race means the winner will need to be heavily laden with stamina and the racing trends support this view! It is always hard work racing over the 3m5½f distance with 20 runners jumping 22 fences on ground that is usually soft (tacky) to heavy! First we look at some important trends that should not be ignored:

2020 Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3).

18/18: Won between 1-5 chase races previously
18/18: Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/18: Won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18: Aged 9yo or younger
16/18: Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/18: Carried 11st 0lbs or less
13/18: Aged 8yo or younger
12/18: Carried 10st 8lbs or less
..9/18: Won over fences at Chepstow previously
..6/18: Ran in the Welsh Grand National previously

The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

In effect the trends over the past 18 years suggest this year's winner will have won between 1 and 5 chases previously, raced in the last 7 weeks, won over 3m before and aged 9yo or younger. This bandwidth has a reoccurrence score of 70/72 for a 97.22% strike rate. The nature of the race confirms the difficulty of winning whilst carrying 11st or more, so if those numbers were incorporated a reoccurrence score of 84/90 gives a strike rate of 93.33% which should help eliminate the pretenders from the contenders!

RECENT WINNERS:

2020: POTTERS ESCAPE (8/1)
2019: ELEGANT ESCAPE (3/1f)
2017: RAZ DE MAREE (16/1)
2016: NATIVE RIVER (11/4f)
2015: MOUNTAINOUS (9/1)
2014: EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
2013: MOUNTAINOUS (20/1)
2012: MONBEG DUDE (10/1)
2011: LE BEAU BAI (10/1)
2010: SYNCHRONISED (5/1)
2009: DREAM ALLIANCE (20/1)
2008: NOTRE PERE (16/1)
2007: MIKO de BEAUCHENE(13/2)
2006: HALCON GENELARDAIS (7/1)
2005: L’AVENTURE (14/1)
2004: SILVER BIRCH (10/3f)
2003: BINDAREE (10/1)
2002: MINI SENSATION (8/1)

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)
Hurdle:   54-115 for 47%  (-2.50)   40-108 for 37% (+14.14)
Chase:     9-29  for 31% (-11.50)   44-128 for 34% (+14.82)
NHF:      17-42  for 40%  (-3.78)      0-0 for  - 
Total:    80-186 for 43% (-17.78)   84-236 for 36% (+28.95)

TOP TRAINERS at Chepstow for current season
Paul Nicholls: 12 wins from 27 for 44% (+27.76)
Tom Symonds:    3 wins from  6 for 50%  (+8.47)
Dan Skelton:    3 wins from 10 for 30% (+12.87)
Evan Williams:  3 wins from 29 for 10% (-12.50)
Jack R Barber:  2 wins from  3 for 67% (+13.00)

BEST TRAINERS at Chepstow past 5 seasons
Paul Nicholls:    48 wins from 187 for 26%
Evan Williams:    35 wins from 247 for 14%
Philip Hobbs:     32 wins from 165 for 19%
Colin Tizzard:    29 wins from 230 for 13%
Venetia Williams: 17 wins from 128 for 13%

TOP JOCKEYS at Chepstow for current season
Harry Cobden:   9 wins from 22 for 41%  (+3.88)
James Bowen:    4 wins from 14 for 29%  (+4.20)
Lilly Pinchin:  3 wins from  4 for 75%  (+8.52)
Nick Schofield: 2 wins from  4 for 50% (+12.00)
Harry Skelton:  2 wins from  6 for 33%  (+9.37)

BEST JOCKEYS at CHEPSTOW past five seasons
Richard Johnson:    44 wins from 199 for 22%
Harry Cobden:       28 wins from 133 for 21%
Adam Wedge:         22 wins from 152 for 14%
Sam Twiston-Davies: 21 wins from 124 for 17%
Sean Bowen:         21 wins from 117 for 18%

Racecourse Templates always have value but less so on this occasion regarding trainer and jockey numbers because of a truncated season. The Racing Horse appreciates the Racecourse Template figures will not impact upon the Welsh Grand National given its unique nature but there are 6 other races on the card:

• Trainer Paul Nicholls scores 12-27 for 44% (+27.76) this season
• Paul Nicholls totals 48-187 for 26% past 5 seasons
• Harry Cobden scores 9-22 for 41% (+3.88) this season
• Richard Johnson totals 44-199 for 22% past 5 seasons
• Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdle races show 54-115 for 47% (-2.50) over the past 5 years

The Racing Horse has not missed the Welsh Grand National in the past 10 years and it now looks possible we will miss this one but we will be glued to Sky Sports as if we were there. The plan is follow up this preview on the week prior to the race and then complete a review of our advice after the race for posting on Monday.

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