CRAVED 5.45 Southwell at 1/2

 Betway Novice Stake (Class 5) (4yo+) 6f16y

Pedigree

Eighth foal; closely related to winners One Master (6f-7.4f inc Group 1; RPR 118) and Triple Chocolate (6f-7f inc AW; 94), half-brother to winners Prompting (7f-1m AW inc AW; 99) and Jacob's Pillow (5f-6f; 87); dam 5f Group 3 winner (inc at 2; 115)

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 3-22 for 14%           (9)
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)
RPR: 84                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard/Slow       (10)
Distance: 6f                        (10)
Jockey: Cieran Fallon               (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 11%          (9)  
Total:                              (98)

Main danger: Inexplicable

Promising type

Craved is a promising type who missed the kick last time in a 6-runner minor event at Newcastle when dropping back in trip over 6f when the 6/5 favourite 17 days ago where he had to win the hard way after overcoming positional bias. On his debut at Lingfield he was slowly away and too green to do himself justice and promised better next time out. The second at Newcastle has since won easily so boosting the form and although tomorrow he will have to prove he acts on the surface and carry a penalty, there is every indication that he will do so and a confident selection. Mind you at 1/2 he has to be a confident selection.

Closely related to One Master

The son of Kodiac, who is closely related to the Group 1-winning One Master, looked far from the finished article at Gosforth Park and looks the type to get better with each start. He has the top RPR of 84 but we fully expect him to progress from here and then on again.

Trainer form

At this moment things are quiet with the William Haggas runners but he has only ran 3 so far in February but 2 of his last 3 runners have been beaten a short head or shorter, one at 7/1. The trainer knows what types win at Southwell and scores 60 winners from 235 runners for 26% strike rate, so 4% above his national average for a break even figure to level stakes. His jockey today is not blessed with a lot of Fibresand experience but this looks a relatively simple task, Cieran Fallow shows 4-13 for 13% (national average is 12%) and currently on a losing run of 16.

Contenders

Greyfire was an improver following wind surgery when second over a mile here last time and is interesting dropping back in trip, while the main danger Inexplicable was not without promise when third on his first outing for Antony Brittain last week.

Timeform

 CRAVED is difficult to oppose after his Newcastle win last month and as long as he handles the fibresand, he should be very hard to beat. Inexplicable is improving and he could give the favourite most to think about.

We had wanted 4/7 for this visit to the Fibresand so we cannot claim perceived value for sure. We know we are on a progressive sort who is certain to step forward, and there is every indication he ought to be far too good for his rivals.

***

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 4 Craved (R4)         1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.45  +3.61  S/R 100%
 3 Symbolic Power      2.87  WIN  1.00  +1.87  +3.16  S/R 100%
 2 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.29  S/R 100%
 1 Carrothers          1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +0.57  S/R 100%

17 Tamborrada          1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  +5.91  S/R  71%
16 Moohareeba          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +5.38  S/R  69%
15 Going Places        2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +4.01  S/R  67%
14 Allart              1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +5.01  S/R  71%
13 La Thihaty          1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  +6.01  S/R  77%
12 Symbolic Power      2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +5.61  S/R  75%
11 Alpha Theta         1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +6.61  S/R  82%
10 Ghost Rider         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  80%
 9 Next Destination    1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +4.98  S/R  78%
 8 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.07  S/R  75%
 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%