NO ORDINARY JOE 7.10 Worcester at 4/11

  Download The MansionBet App "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-6 for 67%           (10)
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)
OR & RPR: 133 & 138                 (10)                                                  
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)
Jockey: Nico de Boinville           (10)
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%              (9)*
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 26%         (10)  
Total:                              (99)

Danger: Fire Away

Grade 2 to Class 4 Novice Hurdle

This is a two-horse race and we are reminded No Ordinary Joe was running in Grade 2 company last year and then scored with so much ease at the beginning of the month despite pulling the arms out of Nico de Boinville early in the race. He could have won his race by a huge margin had the jockey wished. In that Ascot Grade 2 race he was not beaten that far over a distance of less than 2m and remains a gelding of considerable potential when tackling longer trips. His win was after a break last time (137 days) so he is expected to strip much fitter tomorrow!

Trainer and jockey form

Nicky Henderson has been underperforming slightly for a while now in regards to win and strike rate but his horses are in form now! Four of his last six have won at prices of 5/1, 3/10, evens and 3/1, and his last 14 days show 6-30 for 20%. His national average is 24%. At Worcester the trainer scores 75-351 for 21% so just below his national average.

We felt during January and February especially there were some passive rides by Nico de Boinville (19 second places), where he would be riding the best horse yet try to win snugly instead of putting the race to bed first. We recall a number of bets where he would sit too quiet for far too long, but he seems to be riding more positively of late. Apart from Leicester and Wincanton he has his worst figures at Worcester showing just 21-151 for 14% so over 8% less than his national average, bear in mind Henderson scores at 21% here. He comes to Worcester for just one ride.

Contenders

The Laura Morgan-trained Fire Away will be hoping to continue his rich vein of form now switching to the smaller obstacles. He is a fairly useful winning chaser who operates around Class 3 and now has the cheekpieces on for the first time. He was a good second of 4 in handicap chase at Perth over 20.1f on good ground 28 days ago so respected. Of the two outsiders, debutant Teanarco Master is taken to grab third.

 Timeform

 NO ORDINARY JOE has quickly become a fairly useful hurdler and looks to have been found a great opportunity to follow up his easy Southwell victory. Fire Away has been in excellent form over fences and is feared most back hurdling.

Value

 The 4/11 is close to the 2/5 we originally wanted and we envisage our wager starting shorter than the 4/11. It is our view we have a progressive Grade hurdler who jumps well, competing against a Class 3 chaser. We just need Nico to get the tactics right tomorrow!

No Ordinary Joe traded at a high of 1.25 and BSP of 1.23 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021