PACAFI (Friday 3 May 2024)
May 2nd, 2024
DEVIL'S POINT 1.30 Goodwood at 2/5
British Stallion Studs John Dunlop EBF Conditions Stakes (Class[...]
PACAFI (26 May 2021)
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DANCING TO WIN 3.20 Beverley
Pedigree60,000gns Y; fourth foal; half-sister to winners Escamillo (1m 2yo; RPR 90) and St Joe Louis (US 8.5f); dam mudloving 1m-1m2f winner (74), half-sister to 1m6f Group 3 winner Precious Ramotswe out of 1m Listed winner, is granddaughter of 1m Group 1 winner |
COMPOSITE RATINGS
Trainer Form: 2-2 for 100% (10) National average: 17% (10) Course Strike Rate: 25% (10) OR & RPR: 83 & 94 (10) Optimum Ground: Soft (10) Distance: 7f+ (10) Jockey: Oisin Murphy (10) National Average: 18% (10) Course Strike Rate: 38% (10) Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17% (10) Total: (100) Danger: Tromso Alt: Tommaso
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We are asking a 3yo filly to beat the boys early in the season but experience and handling the ground conditions are on our side and our filly will hit the 7f+ line hard under champion jockey Oisin Murphy. She bids for a deserved success having finished second in three soft-ground contests at about 1m, latest at this venue when pulling 17l clear of the third. She briefly looked like winning 2f out before running out of racing room on the rail and had to be switched costing momentum. She is most likely to cope with this drop in trip and very hard to beat, especially receiving 5lbs which will count for plenty on soft ground, plus we know she acts on the track. |
Trainer form
Hugo Palmer is in great form at the moment and both his last two runners have won at 13/2 and 3/1. In the last 14 days he scores 4-12 for 33%. Looking at his last 2 months he shows 5-24 for 21% for April and 5-19 for 26% for May, so well above his national average of 17%. At Beverley he shows fine figures of 6 winners from 24 runners for 25% strike rate and break even at SP so once again well above his national average. This is his only runner tomorrow out of his Newmarket stables.
Oisin Murphy rides the filly so a good replacement for Paul Mulrennan and when he combines with Palmer they show 8-48 for 17% but when Murphy rides at Beverley he records his biggest strike rate on a racecourse with 5-13 for 38% (+7.32).
Contenders
Despite running green in the early parts of his racecourse debut at Carlisle, Tommaso flew home in the dying embers of the contest to snatch third and will finish at least third again but the main danger looks to be Tromso, whose sole piece of form has since been advertised handsomely.
Timeform
DANCING TO WIN has filled the runner-up slot on all her three runs but showed more than enough to suggest she can open her account when clear of the rest in a 1m maiden here on her recent return. Both Tromso and Tommaso have better days ahead of them and look the duo best equipped to challenge Hugo Palmer's daughter of Iffraaj in that order.
Value
All our boxes are ticked but we are not exactly sure what represents value, our notebook before a single show asked for 8/13 but we are not sure how realistic that was.
Dancing To Win traded at a low of 1.25 and BSP of 3.54 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field and travelled strongly early on.
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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021
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