SMART START 6.35 Wolverhampton at 11/4

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COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-9 for 22%           (10)
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 32%             (10)
RPR: 83                             (10)                                                  
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave                (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 26%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Super Over Alt: Full Approval

Should have won on debut

Both Archie Watson and Saeed bin Suroor have impeccable records with 3yos at this track, but it is the latter who gets the vote with his contender Smart Start at 11/4. The son of Teofilo was very green on debut last November yet beaten just a short head in a Class 4 Novice at Lingfield, tomorrow is a Class 6 Maiden at Wolverhampton.

The colt was beaten a short head on his debut and but for a better jockey would have won so effectively a winner without a penalty. He might have won anyway but for greenness, being left in the lead before having a good look around and then rallying to just miss out. He promised to build on that performance and if close to being straight must go close!

Trainer and jockey form

The Racing Horse does not get Saeed bin Surror in that he will not employ a stable jockey and scatters the rides around to everyone. For example, of his last 10 runners they have been ridden by 8 different jockeys. His horses are in good form, April shows 4-16 for 25% and May 2-12 for 17% so flying just under his national average of 21%. At Wolverhampton he excels and nears his 100th winner at the course with 94-297 for 32%. He saddles 2 at the course tonight.

Today's jockey Pat Cosgrave knows his way around Wolverhampton and has his top score for winners there showing 117-865 for 14%. He does better with 3yos and records 40-250 for 16% and when he combines with Saeed bin Suroor they score 39-150 for 26% in the UK. He has ridden a stack of big-race winners for the trainer overseas.

Contenders

Super Over is unlikely to be far away and rates the one to beat and we are stake saving with the Watson-Doyle combo. Worth pointing out the three horses nominated in this race for contention have experience, ratings and the draw with them housing in 1, 2 and 4. The inexperienced/unraced horses will have to reach those ratings and travel outside of them to win! Timeform have nominated Full Approval and we do not understand their thinking but the Jonathan Portman filly might be a bigger player than Rhythm N Rock for third place.

 Timeform

A chance is taken on FULL APPROVAL who took a big step forward last time at Wolverhampton and there could be more to come as she gains experience. She should improve for that outing and the booking of Tom Marquand is only a positive. Smart Start will be a big danger if repeating his debut effort from last year. Super Over can't be ruled out either 

Value

 The 11/4 looks excellent value given our rationale and if he is well must start shorter. We will know more in the paddock at 6.20pm but for a newcomer to beat the front two in the market means they will have to post a RPR in excess of 85 on debut, whilst giving away experience and track position.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021