PACAFI (4 June 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

MEHMENTO 5.10 Epsom at 6/4

  Play Coral 'Racing-Super-Series' For Free Surrey Stakes (Listed) 7f3y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-18 for 22%          (10)
National average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 6%               (9)?
OR & RPR: 108 & 123                 (10)                            
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)?
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Hollie Doyle                (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 22%         (10) 
Total:                              (99)

Danger: Legal Attack Alt: Meu Amor

 Archie Watson is just 1-16 for 6% at Epsom so we are ignoring this small sample and do not consider this a negative. We do have two small negatives that needed addressing, first is we are asking the 3yo colt to run and win after a short break of 19 days (raced on heavy in France), another week's rest would have been better, and we have heard his trainer say he might be best on good to soft. Tomorrow is good with good to firm in places. Our Pacafi is rated at least 6lbs better than the next best so have a bit in hand in case we need it...

Setting aside his latest start

This Mehmas colt has rapidly improved into a smart type, scoring twice at Southwell before an excellent second in the Greenham at Newbury. The ground and trip in France looked against him so we have set that run aside even though he did not run badly. Interesting in that his breeding and his siblings heavily suggests he should be a sprinter but his two runs over 7f on the fibresand and his fabulous second in the Greenham 7f confirms this distance as his optimum!

Drop back down into Listed grade

Mehmento was a facile winner of his first two starts at Southwell winning by 9½l and 13l in Class 5 Maiden and Novice races respectively, we are not sure if trainer Archie Watson appreciated what he had at that time. He then only got beat by a neck to Chindit in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury (Group 3), where Hollie said she couldn't have been happier with the horse. She said he's got a willing attitude and puts his head down, the perfect horse to train in terms of attitude. She also confirmed he is open to further improvement.

He was then a respectable 11th when outclassed in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) at Longchamp. He should find this Listed race far easier with Hollie back in the saddle, providing he handles the track undulations, and is clearly going to be hard to beat.

Group 1 entry

We note he retains an entry for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot on Friday 18 June over 6f but we doubt he will take up that engagement though it shows his trainer thinks he can win at that class.

Contenders

Legal Attack has place claims for the Crisfords after a solid short-head second to Qaader in a decent Goodwood handicap when caught close home and, with first-time cheekpieces added, he can get involved at the finish and bely his official rating. Meu Amor looks best of the fillies and ran well on soft ground when a close-up fourth over this trip in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies' Stakes at Lingfield. She drops in class on faster ground, which ought to see further improvement.

 Timeform

MEHMENTO's second in the Greenham is a stand out piece of form in this race and his subsequent run in the French 2000 Guineas was excusable, so he should get back to winning ways taking a marked drop in grade. Meu Amor could prove the main danger, although Run To Freedom arrives with plenty of potential, so he's one to bear in mind.

Value

The 6/4 looks a good price, 13/8 was offered but we could not secure it. If well in the paddock tomorrow the colt could start closer to 11/10.

***

PACAFI RESULTS for 2021

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