ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 2 October 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Ascot Racecourse Template for Saturday  2 October 2021. There is a 6-race card including 2 Handicaps, 2 Listed and 2 Groups 3s. The ground is currently soft.

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

WHAT is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?

ASCOT RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

NON-HANDICAP (5 years)           HANDICAP (5 years)
2yo:   24-94  for 26% (-29.50)     3-6  for 50%  (+0.33)
3yo:   32-81  for 40%  (+0.75)   45-132 for 34% (+14.90)
4yo+:  36-96  for 38%  (+1.98)   46-146 for 32% (+32.43)
Total: 92-270 for 34% (-30.73)   94-284 for 33% (+47.65)

TOP 6 TRAINERS at ASCOT (current year)            +/-   E
J & T Gosden (22%):   21-50 for 24% (+50.50)      +4%   2  
A Balding (15%):       7-60 for 12%  (-5.30)      -3%   5  
C Appleby (28%):       5-25 for 20%  (-1.00)      -8%   0  
W Haggas (23%):        6-29 for 21% (-8.25)       -2%   5 ✓✓
C Hills (13%):         5-26 for 19% (+14.16)      +6%   1
Muir & Grassick (17%): 4-11 for 36% (+29.50)     +40%   0  
 
TOP 6 TRAINERS at ASCOT (past 5 years)            +/-   E
J Gosden (24%):  41-241 for 17%  (-43.10)         -7%   2   
C Appleby (28%): 26-151 for 17%  (-23.30)        -11%   0
A O'Brien (13%): 26-268 for 10% (-130.83)         -3%   0
W Haggas (23%):  25-184 for 14%  (-49.81)         -9%   5 ✓✓
R Varian (20%):  25-188 for 13%  (-59.97)         -7%   3
A Balding (15%): 25-242 for 10%  (-68.30)         -5%   5   

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT (current year)             +/-   E
William Buick (21%):   8-43 for 19% (+62.50)      -2%   0
Ryan Moore (19%):      8-53 for 15%  (-7.55)      -4%   0
Oisin Murphy (18%):    7-39 for 18% (+22.50)      +0%   0
Jim Crowley (19%):     6-31 for 19%  (-9.93)      +0%   5 
Frankie Dettori (24%): 6-36 for 17%  (+0.75)      -7%   0

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT (past 5 years)             +/-   E
Ryan Moore (19%):      42-276 for 15% (-86.40)    -4%   0
Frankie Dettori (24%): 39-178 for 22% (+26.57)    -2%   0
William Buick (21%):   35-208 for 17% (+61.35)    -4%   0
Jim Crowley (19%):     27-233 for 12% (-29.89)    -7%   5 
Oisin Murphy (18%):    26-230 for 11% (-18.12)    -7%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Ascot (past 5 years)                    E 
Godolphin (13%):          37-276 for 13% (-81.46)       0    
Hamdan Al Maktoum (13%):  22-166 for 13% (-15.51)       -
K Abdullah (23%):         19-84  for 23% (+16.28)       -
M Obaid Al Maktoum (20%): 18-92  for 20% (+13.35)       0
B E Nielsen (43%):        10-23  for 43% (+16.70)       0

HOT TRAINERS 02/09/2021 TO 01/10/2021
J Fanshawe (14%):    7-22 for 31.8%  (-4.17)            1
J & T Gosden (22%): 21-82 for 25.6% (-16.90)            2
E Walker (14%):     11-43 for 25.6%  (+7.43)            4
W Haggas (23%):     22-98 for 22.4% (-23.38)            5 ✓✓
C Cox (14%):        15-70 for 21.4% (+18.43)            4 
E J-Houghton (12%): 10-50 for 20.0%  (-0.93)            2
M Stoute (20%):      7-35 for 20.0% ( +3.62)            1

TRAINERS COLD LIST        E    
S Kirk (8%):        17    1
R Hannon (12%):     17    2
S C Williams (12%): 15    1

HOT JOCKEYS 02/10/2021 to 01/10/2021              +/-   R
Jim Crowley (19%):    11-44 for 25.0% (+27.10)    +6%   5 ✓✓
Adam Kirby (15%):      7-30 for 23.3% (+14.75)    +8%   3 
Paul Mulrennan (11%): 19-83 for 22.9% (+40.04)   +12%   3
Cieren Fallon (13%):  15-68 for 22.1%  (+8.71)    +9%   2
Rossa Ryan (13%):     13-74 for 17.6%  (+2.35)    +5%   4 
 
JOCKEYS COLD LIST         R         
Trevor Whelan (8%):  28   1
Martin Harley (13%): 24   2
Jamie Gormley (9%):  19   1
Ronan Whelan (8%):   19   1
 
MEETINGS
Saturday 2 October 2021
Saturday 16 October 2021

(%): National Average (E): Entries (R) Rides (): Pertinence
  • FAVOURITES: Favourites in non-handicaps at Ascot have a poor strike rate compared to most other UK racecourses, in fact 2yo favourites in non-handicaps have a miserable conversion, the lowest from any racecourse. Conversely, winning favourites in handicaps win at the national average and return a level stake profit to SP of £47.61. Favourites across the board at Ascot show 186-554 for 34% and a level stake profit of +16.87 (inc yesterday's results).
  • TRAINERS: One of the busiest times for trainers this weekend but Andrew Balding (5), William Haggas (5) Roger Varian (3) and J & T Gosden (2) have runners at the course so a natural starting point. ✓✓
  • JOCKEYS: Only Jim Crowley (5) from out two leader boards have rides at Ascot today so our hot jockeys will probably come into play, these include Adam Kirby, Cieren Fallon and Rossa Ryan ✓✓✓
  • OWNERS: With Newmarket and Longchamp competing none of our leader board owners have runners at the course today.
  • DID YOU KNOW: Richard Hannon sends out 17 horses today, 10 at Newmarket, 4 at Redcar, 2 at Ascot and 3 at Wolverhampton. He is currently 0-17. Could he end up at 0-34? We doubt it, he must have one winner! John Gosden sends out 10 to four courses also. With Longchamp today and tomorrow our trainers are going to be stretched and nervous!

1.30
BOUNCE THE BLUE (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out 8/1
WITH THANKS (W Haggas) hot trainer, 22% with horses 7f to 10f and 20% late season, Tom Marquand rides ✓ 7/2

EXACTA: £31.40 & CSF: £29.34

2.05
DAKOTA GOLD (M Dods) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, trainer has won the 3 runnings and twice with Dakota Gold
MINZAAL (O Burrows) drops from Group 1 to Listed, off 371 days  after injured leg, Jim Crowley rides
KEEP BUSY (J J Quinn) beaten favourite last time out

2.40
ALOUNAK (A Balding) beaten favou rite last time out, biggest earner £2,076,576.08, Silvestre De Sousa rides
HUKUM (O Burrows) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Jim Crowley 38% winning favourites ✓ 85/40
TITLE (R Varian) trainer 21% with horses running 10f+

3.15
GLEN SHIEL (A Watson) C&D winner, drops from Group 1 to Group 3 (£604,313.95)
BOOSALA (W Haggas) hot trainer and 20% in late season, Tom Marquand rides

3.50
ACCIDENTAL AGENT (E Johnson Houghton) C&D winner, drops from Group 2 to Class 2 (£704,148.40)
ALDAARY (W Haggas) hot trainer, 22% with horses 7f to 10f and 20% late season, Jim Crowley rides ✓ 10/3
AL RUFAA (J & T Gosden) hot trainer and 26% in late season

4.25
CALL ME GINGER (J Goldie) beaten favourite last time out
BE PROUD (J Goldie) longest traveller 406 miles
GLORY FIGHTER (I Jardine) long traveller 335 miles
BOUNDLESS POWER (M Appleby) ridded by Rossa Ryan 37% on favourites ✓ 7/2

Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning - jockeyship in other words - is key. It goes without saying that in steadily-run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere - Jason Weaver
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