PACAFI (11 October 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

CU CHULAINN 7.30 Kempton at 11/10

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Trainer Form: 1-12 for 8%            (8)*     
National average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%               (9)        
OR: 81                              (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m2f+                     (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy                (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 16%     (10)
Total:                              (97)
Danger: Mawkeb Alt: Crafter

Cu Chulainn is a £425,000 yearling, a fourth foal and a full brother to 3 winners, including the useful 2yo 7f winner Archie McKellar, later successful as Flying Thunder in Hong Kong. He is also a full brother to Rose Berry who won 3 times and Capla Crusader. His dam was a 1m winner.

Excellent debut, more expected this time up

Cu Chulainn looked a decent prospect when just denied on debut at Lingfield last month. The yard's runners invariably take a step forward for an outing and especially an unraced 3yo. Going off at 12/1 with William Buick riding he was not expected to trouble the judge, but he gave an experienced rival a scare close to home and finished his race over 1m2f well. Worth pointing out he was not well positioned in the race and yet beaten just ¾l.

This track and distance might suit him more, the Pacafi had to make his challenge wide at Lingfield on a turning track and green in the first part of the straight, but has drawn stall 2 today to help the jockey find the rail and produce when ready. The booking of Oisin Murphy for this trainer is significant.


Crafter displayed plenty of promise when landing the spoils on debut and, despite posting a lacklustre effort last time out, the French recruit is an interesting sort on his first start for this new stable, has to give 7lbs to the 3yos and his win was in the mud. New Force cost 105,000gns as a yearling but Mawkeb looks the main danger to the Pacafi though back from a short break and a disappointing run at Nottingham.

Trainer form

Brian Meehan is not one of our go-too trainers with strike rates around the 10% mark but he is a top quality trainer. With only one winner from his last 12 runners we would normally ignore and move on but those beaten have been at bigger prices. For example, his last 5 runners have started at 12/1, 8/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 66/1. The jockey booking speaks volumes and their combination shows 12-75 for 16% (+34.70) and 2-9 for 22% on the AW surfaces.


 CU CHULAINN looked a decent prospect when just denied on debut at Lingfield last month. The yard's runners often take a step forward for an outing and the booking of Oisin Murphy suggests a big run is expected, Mawkeb hasn't been seen since running below debut form at Nottingham in April, he could get back on track here. New Force is an interesting newcomer too.


We are expecting our wager to step forward massively from his good debut and we have odds against one that should be a 4/5 shot. His main rivals are back from short breaks and might be a gallop short, if ours runs to a RPR close to 90 this time as expected. Crafter has to give the Pacafi 7lbs on this surface and that looks a hard task even based on the debut run!

The £425,000 price tag suggests this one has not been bought to run on the winter AW programme in the UK and that is another consideration. This one looks owner-trained so one imagines a plan, but the 3yo gelding will have to win this race first!

Cu Chulainn traded at a low of 2.14 and BSP of 13.63 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear and travelled strongly early on.



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