CLITHEROE 1.30 Lingfield at 4/5

 At The Races App Market Movers Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-9 for 22%           (10)    
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)                                     
OR & RPR: 96 & 107                  (10)  
Distance: 6f                        (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Jockey: Jamie Spencer               (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)         
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 20%           (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Noya

 Just beaten on debut

The £590,000 filly Clitheroe was a big eye-catcher on her debut in a decent Class 4 Novice when runner-up at Newbury. She was only beaten a head after travelling best around two out, she had to wait for a gap to appear and then took time to pick up.

Next up in a Group 3

It was a race so full of promise she was entered into a Group 3 at Goodwood. She was fancied to go close when up in trip and grade for just her second start, but after she dwelt at the start she looked a little green and couldn't quite get on terms to challenge, and she eventually finished fifth.

Disappointing at Yarmouth

She was disappointing as the 2/5 favourite seven weeks on when presented with a golden opportunity to get off the mark at Yarmouth in October though this time on good to soft ground. The run was a mystery given her ability in her first two starts. She looked to be going nicely enough for most of the way but finished weakly, that clearly wasn't her running and the daughter of Ribchester is expected to be a cut above this opposition.

Group 3 to Class 5, win is needed now!

Tomorrow, she is eased down in grade to a Class 5 Novice, has a RPR of 107 compared to the next best Noya, who is rated 86 yet receives 7lbs from that runner. Clitheroe has an OR of 96 and we imagine trainer David Simcock will have her relatively fit and want to get a win into the filly for St Albans Bloodstock to help repay the £590,000 price tag.

We just need a percentage ride from Jamie Spencer with no showboating. William Buick and Ryan Moore ride the second and third favourites, this alone should concentrate the mind of Spencer. Given the previous paragraph this particular ride/entry is particularly important!

Contenders

Noya won at Kempton last month so has to give our Pacafi 7lbs which should be difficult. Both her starts over 7f on the Polytrack at Kempton (6f today) and didn't live up to market expectations on first occasion, but belied a market drift next time (led close home) and she could be competitive but now switches to turf. Rattling showed promise on her debut when third at Windsor last May.

 Timeform

  NOYA left her debut form well behind to get off the mark at Kempton last month, and with her pedigree pointing towards further improvement, she's taken to defy a penalty. Clitheroe was disappointing when last seen but sets a clear standard on her earlier form. Rattling hasn't been seen since making a promising debut a year ago but should still improve and isn't ruled out.

Value

The 4/5 looks north of perceived value if we set aside/forgive the Yarmouth run. We hope for a good paddock and hope the money comes for Clitheroe late on. There is a Jamie Spencer factor to be considered and we have acknowledged the fact - we will not cry foul if beaten by jockey error! Members thinking of following the advice will have their own opinions on Jamie Spencer.

UPDATE 07.52: The ground has been confirmed as good to firm, and good in places, which is probably optimum ground for our wager...

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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