MODERN NEWS 6.40 Windsor at 8/11

 Fitzdares Royal Windsor Stakes (Listed) 1m31y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 9-27 for 33%          (10)    
National average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 39%             (10)                                     
RPR: 121                            (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/good to firm   (10)
Jockey: William Buick               (10)
National Average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 34%             (10)         
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 30%           (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Bell Rock

  Godolphin Comments

Dam unplaced 10.5f/1m4f in France, sister to 7f-1m AW winner Symbolic Star; made winning debut in 6f maiden at Newmarket in June 2020 but slightly disappointing in Chesham Stakes next time (7f, soft); creditable second in Epsom conditions stakes in July and built on that later that month when winning 7f Newmarket handicap; followed up in gutsy style in 7f handicap at Doncaster in September and completed hat-trick in 7f Lingfield handicap in October; fair third in Listed race over 7f at Meydan when next seen in February 2022 (slowly away); respectable seventh in the Lincoln at Doncaster (1m) on his next outing in a muddling race (no early pace, unable to close) and then went on to land the Spring Cup at Newbury.

Composite 100/100 and some...

Modern News looks the type to progress further this year and he can take out this feature for the unstoppable duo of Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Our composite could not look stronger and it will be a major shock for the Pacafi to be beaten.

Members will be aware that whilst the Appleby/Buick combination are flying at the moment we have been on the ones that have been beaten. The trainer's national average is a staggering 29% yet he is beating those figures! This current year the team have gone to another level, check this out:

May:      5-12  for 42%  (+1.83)
April:   21-47  for 45% (+23.21)
March:    6-20  for 30%  (-3.94)
February: 5-19  for 26%  (-1.47)
January:  7-15  for 47%  (+0.00)
Total:   44-113 for 39% (+19.63)

In regards to this race the figures are enhanced due to the trainer and jockey figures at Windsor. Over the past 5 years Appleby shows 7-18 for 39% (+0.37) whilst Buick shows 18-53 for 34% (+12.93). The combination figure over 5 years show 205-673 for 30% (-14.30) whilst their all-time figures score 371-1359 for 27% (-19.64).

Contenders

Bell Rock ran a creditable race in the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket's Craven meeting and looks booked for second spot. Catch Twentytwo, a dual Graded winner in South Africa, could take a step forward on his second start for Jane Chapple-Hyam. Tempus is dismissed from our calculations.

 Timeform

  Judged on his Newbury handicap success last month, MODERN NEWS is still on the up and he can take this step up in class in his stride. Bell Rock is capable of a bold show at this level, but Catch Twentytwo is entitled to come on for his reappearance in a Newmarket Group 3 and he is second choice.

Value

The 8/11 is definitely perceived value. 

Modern News traded at more than 10 times Betfair SP and 5 times Betfair SP when winning on 2 of its last 5 starts.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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