The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for the 2-day Guts, Glory & Good Times Meeting. On Friday 13 October 2023 there is a 7-race card including 4 Handicaps (3 Chase & 1 Hurdle) and 3 Novices' Hurdle Races. The going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 59-116   51%   +4.90    31-107   29%   -16.42
Chase  8-16     50%   -1.57    47-138   34%    -1.43
NHF    11-42    26%  -13.11    0-0	 	
TOTAL  78-174   45%   -9.78    78-245   32%   -17.86

TOP 4 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  50-193   26%   -29.24   +2%   5
Evan Williams (11%)  24-217   11%   -25.37   +0%   2
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-113   14%   -32.04   -1%   5
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 15-111   14%   -39.52   -5%   5

HOT TRAINERS 13/09/2023 to 12/10/2023        +/-   E
R Llewellyn (14%)  3-5	   60%	   +9.25    +46%   1
H Derham (25%)	   2-4	   50%	   +1.75    +25%   1
P Nicholls (24%)   2-5	   40%	   -1.00    +16%   5
B Brookhouse (14%) 8-22	   36%	   -1.00    +22%   1
N T-Davies (14%)   13-37   35%	   -4.00    +21%   3
E Lavelle (15%)	   5-16	   31%	   -1.00    +16%   2
O Murphy (17%)	   7-24	   29%	   -0.09    +12%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  35-132   27%   -37.58    +4%   5
Adam Wedge (13%)    17-148   11%   -17.37    -2%   2
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-93    16%   -18.63    +0%   4
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-69    20%    +6.47    +0%   1
Ben Jones (14%)	    12-61    20%   +15.11    +6%   0

HOT JOCKEYS 13/09/2023 to 12/10/2023         +/-   R
Sam T-Davies (15%) 15-39   39%	  -4.00     +24%   3
L Harrison (15%)   5-14	   36%	  +6.50     +21%   3
J O'Neill Jr (16%) 3-9	   33%	  -1.00     +17%   4
C Brace (13%)	   3-10	   30%	  +2.00     +17%   1
R Mania (13%)	   2-7	   29%	  -4.00     +16%   1
H Skelton (21%)	   8-32	   25%	  -3.00      +4%   2
 
COLD LIST JOCKEYS  SAW                             R
J Bowen (13%)	    43    249 days                 2
N Scholfield (10%)  20     29 days                 3
N Houlihan (10%)    19    150 days                 1
A Wedge (13%)       15     13 days                 2
                           
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (15%) 11-56   20%    +2.12    +5%   0
John P McManus (17%) 10-61   16%    +9.40    -1%   2
Colm Donlon (26%)    5-12    42%    +7.93   +16%   0
K & A Brooks (19%)   5-12    42%   +10.87   +23%   0
David Brace (12%)    5-22    23%    +9.00   +11%   1

Chepstow Fixtures:
Friday 13 October 2023
Saturday 14 October 2023
Tuesday 31 October 2023
Wednesday 8 November 2023
Friday 24 November 2023
Saturday 9 December 2023

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 156-419 for 37.23% so +5% above the national average. Non-handicap favourites score 78-174 for 45% whilst handicap favourites score 78-245 for 32%.

TRAINERS: Paul Nicholls (24%) reigns supreme at the Chepstow Racecourse, no other trainer can remotely match his 26% course strike rate. There are 7 hot trainers with 15 runners between them, and this could be the best angle into the meeting if you are opposing the Nicholls 5 runners!

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) is favourite to be top jockey at the meeting. He rides the course at 27% and has 5 rides. Paddy Brennan (20%) has just the one ride, whilst James Bowen (13%) will be more eager than most to get back into the groove, his figures read 0-43 over a period of 249 days. He has 2 rides tomorrow including LANDOFSMILES 1.35 & MARIO DE PAIL 3.23. He last rode a winner in February 2023.

OWNERS: J P McManus (17%( has two runners at the track tomorrow in CHIRICO VALLIS 1.35 & FRONT VIEW 4.33. The former is trained by Neil Mulholland and ridden by Richie McLernon, whilst the latter is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and ridden by Jonjo O'Neill Junior.

David Brace (12%) has one entry in THATZA DAZZLER 2.48. This 5yo gelding was trained by Fergal O'Brien for Brace, but for some reason been taken back to Dunraven Stud. Brace is known to be shrewd when the money is down but we doubt this time! The horse wears a hood and does not look easy to work with.

RED FLAG: Paul Nicholls has a national average of 24% yet scores 26% at Chepstow. This is one of those courses that if you are not backing his runners then do not back against them unless you have the requisite perceived value! On Friday he has 5 runners here including DANNY KIRWAN 1.35, CAPTAIN TEAGUE 2.10, PANJARI 2.48, IOUPY COLLONGES 3.23 & FLORENCETHEMACHINE 3.58. All of these horses will be ridden by Harry Cobden and it is reasonable to expect the combination to have at least 1 winner!

The trainer & jockey combination shows 352-1389 for 25% over the past 5 years. Included in those figures are 253 second places and 187 third pla,es, so 792-1389 for 57.02%  finish 1-2 or 3.

Two of those wins at Chepstow were with my horse Blackjack Kentucky (just been retired, hard to keep sound) so we have first hand knowledge of how well Harry Cobden rides the course, his intelligent feedback, and lovely manners irrespective of the result. The last 5-years show him record 35-132 for 27% with 22 second place, meaning 57-132 for 43.18% finish first or second, proving both a high level of skill and horsemanship, and a consistency at the course. He has 5 rides at the course on Friday. Stop at a winner?

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald