KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 22 May 2024)
May 21st, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 22 May 2024. There is an 8-[...]
KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Saturday 6 January 2024)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Saturday 6 January 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Novice and a Maiden Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 104-265 39% -47.86 38-104 37% +3.21 3yo 116-236 49% -9.96 125-410 30% -51.93 4yo+ 41-93 44% -3.89 200-653 31% -76.96 TOTAL 261-594 44% -61.71 363-1167 31% -125.68 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 68-431 16% -0.49 +1% 2 Roger Varian (20%) 58-236 25% -18.35 +5% 0 Charlie Appleby (29%) 60-185 32% -36.23 +3% 0 Richard Hannon (11%) 44-399 11% -94.75 +0% 2 J & T Gosden (21%) 40-196 20% -38.32 -1% 0 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 25-142 18% -14.90 +3% 2 Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46 35% +2.27 +6% 0 Roger Varian (20%) 16-66 24% -6.81 +4% 0 James Fanshawe (14%) 14-61 23% +0.75 +9% 0 J & T Gosden (21%) 14-65 22% -12.26 +1% 0 HOT TRAINERS 07/12/23 to 05/01/24 +/- E B Millman (12%) 4-11 36% +36.00 +24% 2 S & E Crisford (20%) 5-20 25% -1.38 +5% 1 R Hughes (13%) 3-12 25% +63.25 +12% 1 K R Burke (14%) 7-29 24% +4.05 +10% 2 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R David Probert (12%) 81-680 12% -100.63 +0% 5 Oisin Murphy (19%) 71-364 20% -43.22 +1% 0 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 69-515 13% -100.13 +0% 0 Hollie Doyle (15%) 67-466 14% -95.80 -1% 0 William Buick (23%) 65-294 22% -67.69 -1% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- R Oisin Murphy (19%) 32-156 21% -15.86 +2% 0 David Probert (12%) 23-147 16% +75.85 +4% 5 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147 15% -48.67 +2% 0 William Buick (23%) 21-89 24% -15.07 +1% 0 Rossa Ryan (16%) 18-128 14% -29.53 -2% 5 HOT JOCKEYS 07/12/23 to 05/01/24 +/- R Rossa Ryan (16%) 18-88 21% -3.27 +5% 5 Gina Mangan (10%) 5-27 19% +7.38 +9% 1 COLD JOCKEY SAW R Harry Burns (10%) 44 133 days 1 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 88-318 28% -67.40 +3% 0 King Power (13%) 20-117 17% -30.19 +4% 0 Shadwell Est (24%) 18-62 29% +10.88 +5% 0 Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 14-66 21% +57.68 +0% 0 Amo Racing (17%) 13-53 25% +23.30 +8% 1 FORTHCOMING KEMPTON FIXTURES: Saturday 6 January 2024 Wednesday 10 January 2024
Assuming bettors have signed up to the mentality aspects of sports betting, finding perceived value and getting on at that perceived value price is the primary task in sports betting. |
CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.
FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 624-1761 for 35.43% and a level stake loss of -187.39. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 31% for a 13% differential. Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing a strike rate of 49%, whilst the worst category are 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 30%.
TRAINERS: Top trainer Andrew Balding (15%) runs 2 at the course tomorrow including the Pacafi and he could go close to landing a win double, his runners include FIRE DEMON 5.45 & LESSAY 6.15.
JOCKEYS: David Probert (12%) has 5 rides including FIRE DEMON 5.45, LESSAY 6.15, TALIS EVOLVERE 6.45, BOSH 7.15 & RED FLYER 7.45. Stop at a winner?
Rossa Ryan (16%) also has 5 rides including NEMOV 5.45, ARATUS 6.45, EXPERT AGENT 7.15, PLANET LEGEND 7.45 & DISTINCTION 8.15.
OWNERS: Amo Racing (17%) score at +8% at Kempton and show a level stake profit of +23.30 so their runner PERSIAN BLISS 6.15 trained by David Loughnane must be worth processing though we are not sure how regularly the trainer scores with a winning 3yo debutant!
UPDATE 04.58: Our thanks to Stephen B who reminded us the team are 2-34 for 6% with 3yo debutants (11/1 & 40/1 in 2017 & 2020), neither with Billy Loughnane riding of course!
RED FLAG: Just a quick look at the operation of Katie Scott (9%) who trains horses in Galasheils in the Scottish Borders. This is the first time we have even considered staking a runner of hers, but she has her first runner ever at Kempton in an Apprentice Handicap Class 5 over 7f and we are staking her for a place (first or second) IF we can secure perceived value. Tomorrow, she travels 365-miles hoping to collect £4,187 in prize money. Without knowing the cost of diesel our educated guess suggest a round trip of 730-miles worth is not cheap, surely her entry has been placed to go close!
Her 9% national average is not the worst and there are logistical reasons why things must be tough operating out of her stable in regard to distances. She is currently 0-44 over 94 days and 0-62 on the AW with her last win in April 2023. So why are we discussing her modus operandi now? Well, she runs BOWOOD 5.15 and this 4yo Siyouni gelding is unexposed on the AW surfaces, from 5 starts he has recorded 2 second places and 2 third places for an OR of 71 which is good enough to win this race.
There's more! Bowood was sent to run at Southwell last time out and made the 11/4 favourite before finishing 3rd only beaten 1½l in a 12-runner race. This race looks easier and he wears blinkers for the first time. Given the market support last time out there was an expectation of him going close to winning and this journey and his third place form last time out suggest he will go close again under William Pyle. With just 5 runners competing and a cutaway if needed, we doubt there will be too much trouble in running even in this apprentice race! IF we can nick something close to 1.80 for a place we will wager! As we go to post Bowood is 5/2 with a little 11/4 available.
By the way, we appreciate this low odds advice does not suit all of our members, but we are into incremental gains with little to no risk. Failing that we hope to convey some information of interest going forward or be of some entertainment value!
TIMEFORM COMMENTS: A tricky opener with the narrow vote in favour of BOWOOD. He's run well all 3 starts since the cheekpieces were applied and, now equipped with blinkers, he could be worth chancing to finally shed the maiden tag. Ultramarine arrives having landed 2 of his last 3 starts and is feared most, ahead of Conquest of Power.
PERTINENCE5.15
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |