LESSAY 6.15 Kempton at evens

Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 4) 7f

Pedigree

 40,000gns Y; third foal; dam unraced half-sister to Listed winners Face The Facts (2m), Freedom's Light (1m4f) and Oh Beautiful (12.5f) out of 7f winning half-sister to good sprinter/broodmare Cassandra Go and 6f 2yo Group 3 winner Verglas

Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%           (10)
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)
RPR: 75                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)      
Optimum Distance: 7f                (10)
Jockey: David Probert               (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey AW Combo: 21%      (10)
Total:                             (100)

Game newcomer who is entitled to improve plenty

Looking at the course and distance debut win of Lessay we noted the Racing Post Ratings assessment where they said: "Second set standard and improved a little from debut but edged out by a game newcomer that attracted support at bigger prices. There is probably not as much depth in behind as numbers/yards might suggest."

Consequently the Pacafi was given a RPR of just 75. The feeling at TRH was we liked what we saw visibly and especially the way the 3yo Churchill colt battled to win against the more experienced rival, he could have easily chucked it in and we have upgraded the run! He's bred to improve over further later in the year and his next race might be over a mile but he should hit the 7f line hard today.

Trainer & Jockey

In the last couple of days Andrew Balding (15%) has notched 2 wins from his 4 runners at prices of 13/2 & 7/2 both improving to win, one them massively so! When David Probert combines with Andrew Balding on the AW surfaces they score 86-412 for a big 21% (+82.69). More than that, we believe the jockey is under-valued in a general sense. His 12% national average does not accurately reflect his ability.

Contenders 

Hard to understand why Ring That Bell is the current 11/2 second-favourite, he was 150/1 and never involved on last month's 1m debut here so will need to come on a lot to fill a place and a ton more to win! The main danger might be Rogue Raider for Tom Clover, the trainer is +£57.50 with debutants. His charge is a $150,000 yearling, and a 50,000gns 2yo More Than Ready gelding and it will be interesting to see if there is any money for him.

Timeform Comments

LESSAY got on top close home when making a winning debut over C&D last month and, with improvement on the cards, he looks the way to go. Newcomers Rogue Raider and Persian Bliss are both appealing on paper, while Newsreader showed promise on debut and is also worth considering.

Perceived Value

We had hoped to nick a bit of 5/4 in this Class 4 Novice, but after the performance of Hopeful (beating Bystander) the bookmakers and layers are on red-alert to the stable. The even money was taken in the belief the colt will step up again from his course and distance win thus giving us perceived value.

Lessay traded at a high of 7.00 and Betfair SP of 13.50 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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