PACAFI (Wednesday 1 May 2025)
May 1st, 2024
REYAADAH STAR 7.00 Kempton at 2/5
Racing TV Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f219y
P[...]
KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 10 January 2024)
Posted by in Blog
Leave a comment
|
The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 10 January 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 4 Handicaps, 2 Classified Races and 3 Novices. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 104-265 39% -47.86 38-104 37% +3.21 3yo 116-236 49% -9.96 125-410 30% -51.93 4yo+ 41-93 44% -3.89 200-653 31% -76.96 TOTAL 261-594 44% -61.71 363-1167 31% -125.68 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 68-431 16% -0.49 +1% 3 Roger Varian (20%) 58-236 25% -18.35 +5% 2 Charlie Appleby (29%) 60-185 32% -36.23 +3% 1 Richard Hannon (11%) 44-399 11% -94.75 +0% 2 J & T Gosden (21%) 40-196 20% -38.32 -1% 0 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 25-142 18% -14.90 +3% 3 Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46 35% +2.27 +6% 1 Roger Varian (20%) 16-66 24% -6.81 +4% 2 James Fanshawe (14%) 14-61 23% +0.75 +9% 0 J & T Gosden (21%) 14-65 22% -12.26 +1% 0 HOT TRAINERS 11/12/23 to 09/01/24 +/- E J R Jenkins (6%) 6-13 46% -1.00 +40% 1 C Appleby (29%) 7-23 30% -7.37 +1% 1 B Millman (12%) 4-14 29% +33.00 +17% 1 Tom Clover (13%) 3-12 25% -1.88 +12% 1 R Varian (20%) 8-33 24% -3.06 +4% 2 G Boughey (17%) 10-46 22% - 1.00 +5% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R David Probert (12%) 81-680 12% -100.63 +0% 4 Oisin Murphy (19%) 71-364 20% -43.22 +1% 0 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 69-515 13% -100.13 +0% 1 Hollie Doyle (15%) 67-466 14% -95.80 -1% 0 William Buick (23%) 65-294 22% -67.69 -1% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- R Oisin Murphy (19%) 32-156 21% -15.86 +2% 0 David Probert (12%) 23-147 16% +75.85 +4% 4 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147 15% -48.67 +2% 1 William Buick (23%) 21-89 24% -15.07 +1% 0 Rossa Ryan (16%) 18-128 14% -29.53 -2% 6 HOT JOCKEYS 11/12/23 to 09/01/24 +/- R Aidan Keeley (9%) 4-16 25% +4.94 +16% 1 David Probert (12%) 7-31 23% +8.08 +11% 4 Jack Mitchell (17%) 14-68 21% -3.38 +4% 3 COLD JOCKEY SAW R Harry Burns (10%) 46 136 days 1 Sam James (11%) 42 67 days 1 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 88-318 28% -67.40 +3% 1 King Power (13%) 20-117 17% -30.19 +4% 0 Shadwell Est (24%) 18-62 29% +10.88 +5% 0 Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 14-66 21% +57.68 +0% 0 Amo Racing (17%) 13-53 25% +23.30 +8% 0 FIXTURES: Wednesday 10 January 2024 Wednesday 17 January 2024 Monday 22 January 2024 Wednesday 24 January 2024 Saturday 27 January 2024 FORTHCOMING RACECOURSE TEMPLATES: CHELMSFORD AW (Saturday 13 January 2024)
The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, and as long as it exists it NEVER will! |
CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.
FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 624-1761 for 35.43% and a level stake loss of -187.39. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 31% for a 13% differential. Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing a strike rate of 49%, whilst the worst category are 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 30%.
BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 116-236 for 49% (-9.96)
WORST CATEGORY: 3yo HANDICAPS 125-410 for 30% (-51.93)
TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby (29%) scores 32% at Kempton over the past 5 years and has a single runner, but Roger Varian (20%) does well at the course also at 25% and opposes and with WEST HOLLYWOOD & CONDOR PASA 6.30. TRH imagines the winner of this Novice is almost certain to come from one of these three!
Andrew Balding (15%) is the top trainer at the Kempton course largely based on volume and he scores at 16% and has 3 more runners tomorrow including HIGH SPORT 4.25, CALCULATE 6.30 & POPCORN MAGIC 7.30. All 3 runners have places chances at least!
JOCKEYS: James Doyle (19%) and he comes to the course for the ride on El Cordobes. At Kempton he scores 64-277 for 23% (-26.43) over the past 5 years but records 98-333 for 29% (+0.29) for trainer Charlie Appleby winning almost £3m in prizemoney in the UK alone.
Rossa Ryan (16%) has 6 rides and continues to ride in great form, his mounts include RHASIDAT 4.25, TIME PATROL 5.00, LAURA'S BREEZE 6.00, ADVERT RULES 6.30, CLAXTON BAY 7.00 & PREMIER BEAUTY 8.30. He must go close to another winner from these rides.
David Probert (12%) failed us on our last Pacafi but another who is riding very well and he ought to score also from HIGH SPORT 4.25, SAFE PASSAGE 5.30, POPCORN MAGIC 7.30 & SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 8.30.
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) are easily the top owners at this course and have recorded more winners than the next top 10 owners put together! They score 28% at the course and have just one runner at this meeting courtesy of the Charlie Appleby trained El Cordobes 6.30.
RED FLAG: El Cordobes cost 2,000,000gns and is by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare, and is a brother to a mile AW winner. The dam has already produced a 100-rated horse and her son is a scopey, quality colt and reported to be a very relaxed, athletic horse who vetted well. But, on debut he was very weak in the market drifting from 5/6 to 7/4 confirming he was in need of the experience and a run. William Buick raced the colt with the choke out early on against a more experienced rival (who had the rail) and then under a wide trip. That effort told late on, but do not believe the colt weakened as reported, Buick looked after him in the final stages and will be a different proposition tomorrow. Hard to be certain but the jockey might not given El Cordobes his best ride.
We note the trainer has given the colt a 35-day rest after the run and that makes sense. Drawn 6 of 10 James Doyle will have a much better chance of finding a pitch against these debutants, that said some of our top stables are involved. El Cordobes has a RPR of 85 and will surely score into the 90s tomorrow making him very hard to beat. As part of our Charlie Appleby System we are staking and will be searching best prices probably on the Exchange!
Hard to be specific about perceived value on this occasion, but given the quality of race we would want something a little better than 6/4, we do believe this colt will win the race unless one of the newcomers are well above average! At this time of the year that would be unusual.
UPDATE: The 13/8 supposedly available with Bet365 as an opening show never existed! We had 3 surrogate points of entry at the time and not one was able to strike a wager! We accept some 5/4 was available to small money.
RED FLAG 2: In answer to Phil B we can report Nicky Henderson has told us the following about our horse: "Pentland Hills continues to work well. There is a race at Taunton on Saturday 20 January, which could be the perfect option for him. It's for horses aged 8yo and over and is a 0-150 handicap hurdle. Pentland Hills is now a 9yo and rated 142, so fingers crossed we can get him there in good form. I have decided to give the Lanzarote Hurdle a miss as it's hugely competitive." TRH thinks this race looks perfect for him and if entered will travel to watch him, more news when we have it...
PERTINENCE4.25
|
| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |