BRADMAN 11.20 Southwell at 8/11

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap 

Pedigree

32,000gns F, 65,000gns Y; first foal; dam 6f AW winner (RPR 78), half-sister to winners Little Raven (1m/8.6f AW) and Bandra (French 1m3f) out of 7f-1m winning sister to US 8.5f Grade 3 winner No Explaining (dam of 7f 2yo Group 2 winner Beyond Reason)

Trainer Form: 1-5 for 20%           (10)
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 10%             (10)
RPR: 68                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)      
Optimum Distance: 1m3f+             (10)
Jockey: Rossa Ryan                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Schooled early on

Backing horses in Class 6 Handicaps is not our preferred option, and particularly a 7-race maiden yet to finish in the first three. In his first 3 starts Bradman finished 11th of 12 at 100/1 (Salisbury), 5th of 7 at 100/1 (Salisbury) and 7th of 7 at 250/1 (Newmarket). In relevance and context those three runs were on turf, in Class 4 Races and clearly to give the 3yo schooling. He was gelded after his Newmarket run.

Showed promise but poor trips

He then showed some promise in a trio of AW handicaps last year. He first came onto the radar properly in November when backed into 10/11 favourite in a 2yo nursery handicap but had a poor trip. The market suggested the 2yo stayer had some ability albeit in a Class 6 (0-60). Next up at Southwell he was sent off at 3/1 (0-65) and again found trouble before running on late, screaming for a longer trip!

Last run should be upgraded

His last run Bradman stepped up in grade to a Class 5 (0-75) and up in distance to 1m3f at Southwell with cheek pieces and out of the weights, yet supported again as the 5/2 second favourite. He was definitely not seen to best effect in steadily-run affair under a moderate/passive ride when close-up last of 4 (beaten just over a length) over 11f here 6 days ago. In the jockey's defence he took a keen hold early and appeared to get outpaced at a crucial stage before running on strongly near the line. Given all of the above we upgraded the run!

Well in at the weights this time

The Pacafi is due to go up 6lbs in future, but today the in form Rossa Ryan (16%) rides, and instead of running out of the weights adds 7lbs of value to the wager, and in our humble opinion looks 10lbs well-in and especially off a decent pace. Oh, and this is a Handicap Class 6 (0-55) as opposed to the Class 5 (0-75) last time out! This Pacafi is weighted to win!

Jockey Rossa Ryan had the most fabulous 2023 and looks ready to kick on again in 2024. He rode a win double yesterday at 11/1 and 13/2 and has 5 rides at the course today. He is 22-123 for 18% (-9.30) at Southwell and 2-16 for 13% for trainer Charlie Fellowes who is just 4-39 for 10% here, so a slight negative but not in the context of this race.

Contenders

Tres Chic looks the biggest danger but has to prove that she stays this far, whilst Catena is the clear pick of the remainder but concedes 6lbs to the Pacafi.

Timeform Comments

BRADMAN offered definite signs he's capable of defying his lowly mark in handicaps late last year and, having not been seen to best effect over 11f here 6 days ago, he's fancied to come out on top operating from his correct mark this time. Catena and Northgate may emerge next best.

Perceived Value

We had hoped to nick a bit of 4/5 or better but happy with 8/11 and feel we are just north of perceived value if our wager runs his race. 

Bradman traded at a low of 1.06 and Betfair SP of 3.86 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field. 

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Finally

We have two runners in the 2m116y Munster Conditions Hurdle at Clonmel today. Quai De Bourbon (Paul Townend) won a maiden at Naas last month over 2m 3f. It’s not ideal coming back in trip here but he has improved since Naas and we are expecting him to be good enough to win again today - Willie Mullins