The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Sunday 17 March 2024. There is a 7-race card and the going will be heavy.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 67-138   49%   -0.46    37-125   30%   -18.62
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    53-162   33%    -9.81
NHF    15-50    30%  -13.56    0-0	 	
TOTAL  90-205   44%  -16.59    90-287   31%   -28.43

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  58-225   26%   -35.85   +2%   2
Evan Williams (11%)  28-264   11%   -37.00   +0%   6   
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-126   13%   -37.52   -6%   1   
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-131   12%   -50.04   -3%   3
Ven Williams (17%)   15-100   15%    -8.62   -2%   2 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  41-157   26%   -41.45    +3%   2 
Adam Wedge (13%)    21-180   12%   -19.8     -1%   0
Ben Jones (14%)     19-84    23%   +71.68    +9%   3  
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-109   14%   -34.63    -2%   3
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-76    18%    -0.52    -1%   1
      
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (14%) 11-64   17%    -5.87    +3%   0
John P McManus (15%) 10-70   14%    +0.40    -1%   0
David Brace (13%      7-26   27%   +26.00   +14%   0
Colm Donlon (24%)     6-14   43%   +11.93   +18%   0 
Walters Plant (19%)   6-40   15%   -13.05    -4%   0

Chepstow Fixtures:
Sunday 17 March 2024		
Thursday 21 March 2024

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 180 winning favourites from 492 races for 36.59% (-44.93) so around +3% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 90-205 for 44% whilst handicap winning favourites score 90-287 for 31% for a 13% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 67-138 for 49% (-0.46) ← ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 37-125 for 30% (-18.62) ←

TRAINERS: Each of our top 5 trainers at Chepstow have runners and the suggestion is their 14-aggregate will provide winners at this meeting. Paul Nicholls (24%) is easily top trainer here and he has 2 runners including KNOWSLEY ROAD 3.35 & MULINAS 4.45. The latter is owned and ridden by David Maxwell who rides at 20%.

JOCKEYS: Given the entries of the top trainers 4 of our top 5 jockeys should be able to take advantage, but our eyes are drawn to Ben Jones (14%) who has been in brilliant form this season. His 5-year figures at the course show 19-84 for 23% (+71.68) and he has 3 rides tomorrow including LUBEAT FORAS 1.50, HAITI COULEURS 2.25 & REALCO 4.45.

OWNERS: None of the top 5 owners at Chepstow have a runner on Sunday.

RED FLAG: David Maxwell is an amateur jockey, claiming 3lbs who rides at 10st 8lbs. He has ridden 68 winners for 21% but has only ridden in 3 NHF races with 1 success. Tomorrow he rides MULINAS 4.45 trained by champion trainer Paul Nicholls in the NHF race, in effectively a match against the Fergal O'Brien trained Oak Grove to be ridden by Paddy Brennan, his only ride. The two horses cost £170,000 and £250,000 respectively and race for £2,451 in prize money.

The key issue in this race is that David Maxwell owns Mulinas and his horse has surely been placed to win by Nicholls, conscious that Maxwell would be quite happy transferring horses to Harry Derham. In a quite extraordinary conversation he was heaping praise on Derham and confirming to us he was on a waiting list to get more horses into his oversubscribed stable!

Oak Grove has the benefit of an Ascot debut run when only 4/1, this told us something more was expected than a 5th of 11 placing. Conor Brace rode that day and now Paddy Brennan takes over in the saddle and his only ride!

There was a bit of 2/1 with William Hills about Mulinas but plenty of 7/4 and that looks an attractive price given a good paddock. On a personal note we have backed the Maxwell-owned with a forecast saver with Oak Grove believing they will finish first and second. From a racing perspective it will be fascinating to watch and compare the two jockey styles throughout the race as they could not be more different! Maxwell to score 2-4 for 50% in bumpers is the shout!

 Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald