ALRAJAA 7.30 Kempton at 15/8

32Red Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100) 1m

Pedigree: Fifth foal; half-brother to winners Etaab (7f-1m inc AW/Listed; RPR 107), Estiqaama (1m; 103) and Farsakh (6f; 88); dam 6f-7f winner (inc Listed/AW; 104), closely related to 7f 2yo Listed winner Mudaaraah, half-sister to 7f 2yo Listed winner Sudoor

Trainer Form: 13-42 for 33%  (10)
RPR: 114                     (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Polytrack    (10)
Optimum Distance: 1m         (10)
Jockey: Jim Crowley          (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Kuwait Currency 11/4

Rapidly improving, still lots more to come

Alrajaa made a belated seasonal debut in August but has improved with every subsequent start and won easily over today’s trip at Chelmsford last time. We watched that race live and urge our members (if they can) to watch the nature of the win. He blew the start completely and gave away at least 10 lengths, he then travelled eight wide when making his challenge, swept past them and won going away! Yes, we accept the win was in a Class 4 Handicap and today he races in a Class 2 but this horse is not a handicapper. Ex jockey George Baker called it a "monster performance" and he was right! Alrajaa has a hike in the weights to contend with but there looks plenty more to come from John Gosden’s charge.

Trainer form

We keep talking about the trainer form of John Gosden and he continues to amaze us. Here we are in late October and he still has his horses in form. For examples his latest runners show since the 8 October: 11111802012771714 so 8 winners from 17 runners for 47%. This is his only runner tomorrow and by the way he sends just one to Bath on Wednesday and we intend to have a close look at that one and we might travel to Bath to watch him. More news to come on this one...

Of his rivals

Listen To The Wind is another progressive type though came up just short at Bath back in July. Kuwait Currency has won a couple of lower grade races over track and trip and finished in front of Rectory Road earlier in the month and looks the danger. He has thrived over this track and trip since switched to the all-weather in August, winning two of his three races here and was beaten less than two lengths in the competitive London Mile on the other occasion. He is only 3lb higher than his latest success 13 days ago and we expect the gelding to run well. Sir Busker got his head back in front here last month on his first start over a mile and Siglo Six may prove best of the remainder. 

Timeform

The manner of his recent handicap debut success at Chelmsford suggests that ALRAJAA may be able to cope with a big rise in the weights, for all that this is a significantly tougher assignment. Sir Busker, who settled better back on this surface when scoring over C&D last month, is a big danger having been raised just 3 lb, while Listen To The Wind remains with potential and also needs considering.

Value

After his Chelmsford win we were so impressed we put him in our tracker file as a next time out winner! There is one or two to beat but the 15/8 looks on the right side of value and the Hannon horse looks a danger but we are clear of the rest...

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

14 Alrajaa           2.87        1.25
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 13  WIN: 7  LOSE: 6  S/R: 54%   PROFIT: +1.39pts

(2221112411611)   FINISHED First or Second (84.62%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSD) SHORTENS in price (69.23%)

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