National Hunt Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 3m5f201y

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The National Hunt Chase is the oldest race run at the Cheltenham Festival first run over 140 years ago. These days it always carries a large field and is ridden by Amateur riders over the marathon trip of 4m. All horses are young novice chasers. The race is a recipe for a shock and horror result so even more reason to use our Racecourse Templates and Racing Trends. Only three favourites have won in the last 22 years and we doubt we will be going down that route on this occasion. Obviously stamina and jumping well is key but none of the horses have raced this distance so a subjective call. 

This is the fourth year that it will be run as a Grade 2. Five of the last eight winners had contested a Grade 1 novice chase earlier in the season and four of those were officially top rated.

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

4.50: (Old) National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 3m5f201y .

20/20: Break of at least 17 days since last run (100%)
19/19: Ran at least 3 times over fences (100%)
16/16: Rated 120 or higher (100%) 

19/20: Raced 4-8 times that season (since Sept) (95%)
13/14: Had 3+ chase runs, top 2 finish in 3m + chase (93%)
20/22: Finished in top 5 last time out (91%)
20/22: At least one top 4 finish in last 2 starts (91%)
19/21: Finished 1st or 2nd in a 3 mile+ Chase (90%)
..9/10: Ran over fences by 31st October (90%)

10/12: Aged between 6-8yo (83%)
..9/12: Placed in first 3 on last start (75%)
15/20: Aged 7 or 8yo's (75%)
..9/12: Won a race that season (75%)
..8/12: Raced at Cheltenham previously (67%)
....6/9: Ran at a previous Cheltenham Festival (67%)
11/17: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (65%)
..7/12: Trained in Britain (58%)
..6/13: Experienced Cheltenham's fences earlier the season (46%)
..5/16: Trained by Jonjo O'Neill (six in total) (31%)
..2/79: Won by 5 and 6yos (3%)

  • Last 11 winners rated 127+
  • 75% of all win and placed horses are Irish bred
  • In 2016 & 2017 the first three home were all Irish bred
  • In 2013 all 8 finishers were Irish bred
  • Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in this race and currently is 0-18 but he has an interesting sort this year who looks certain to run a huge race!
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has never won this race
  • Winning favourites in non-handicap chases: 44-119 for 37%

Recurrence Factor

The top 3 trends have a recurrence factor of 55/55 for 100% whilst the top 9 show 155/164 for 94.51%

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Verdict

Ravenhill was a fourth winner of the race in ten years for trainer Gordon Elliott and he has prepared two with fine chances this time around with Galvin and Escaria Ten and it was hard to leave the latter out of the first three.

1: LORD ROYAL 10/1 (7th)
2: Next Destination 7/2 (2nd)
3: Galvin 7/2 (WINNER) 

Lord Royal looked a fine prospect last season but fell two from home on his chase debut in November then followed up the fall with a poor run next time up. His career resumed on his latest start in a beginners chase when rallying. Other horses clearly have better form than our nomination and his lack of experience is also a concern but he looks the most promising horse in the race and we did not want to touch a short price on the favourite, though that one must run well.

Lord Royal is a beautiful horse and we have always liked him - David Casey (assistant trainer). He ran a cracker at Navan last time out. He’d been disappointing every time since he won his maiden hurdle (at Clonmel), but he’s best held on to. I was delighted with the way he stayed on from the last (at Navan), and whoever rides him will have more or less have the same instructions. I think whoever rides him needs to hold onto him a little longer, and over 3m 6f you should be able to go a little slower pace wise and that will suit him. He’s a beautiful jumper and I think he’ll improve on better ground – he’s not one to give up on and when we get it right he’s one to win a big race down the line - Willie Mullins.

This nomination was all about price, the 9/1 with Unibet looks big for this horse. With a kind trip looks a fabulous each way bet! For £20 you can take advantage of Unibet Boost and get 10/1 so we have taken advantage of that particular offer!

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