The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle race is a tricky one to weigh up as it’s for 4yo hurdlers only and their form can improve dramatically as they gain experience. These young horses have two options at the festival, either go for the better known Triumph Hurdle on the Friday, where they all carry the same weight or opt for this race where the handicapper (in theory) gives all horses an equal chance.

Taking advantage of a lenient mark with horses having been a previous winner over timber seems the way to go. Less runs equals fewer opportunities for the handicapper to obtain a true reflection of a horse’s ability which equals greater probability of underestimation of their capabilities. 

This will be the 16th running and it has been tough going for punters with winners at 40/1 (twice), 33/1 (three times), 25/1 (twice) and 20/1 though a couple of favourites have been successful. The message is clear - do not be afraid to take a price (after digesting our figures).

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

 Recurrence Factor

The top 3 trends show a recurrence factor of 45/45 for 100% whilst the top 10 record 136/145 for 93.79%

The Racing Horse Verdict

Aramax continued the recent Irish stronghold on this juvenile handicap hurdle, sealing a second winner in three years for Gordon Elliott and a third in a row for Ireland. 

This will be the 17th running and beware of big prices including 40/1 (x2), 33/1 (x3), 25/1 (x2) and 20/1 though three favourites have been successful.

1: Houx Gris 6/1 (4th)
2: Saint Sam 6/1 (2nd)
3: Youmdor 33/1 (18th)
4: Riviere D'etel 12/1 (7th) 

Houx Gris has clearly been kept for this race alone. Forget the bare result at Chepstow on his only run for Nicholls. He was bought for 200,000euros after winning two of four French starts (hurdle/bumper) and significant his trainer ran him in a Chepstow Grade 1 on debut for yard. Worth noting he travelled well for a long way before tiring. We are aware that the stable's three winners of this were also French recruits with low mileage in Britain.

The form of his Auteuil win has since caught the intention, the first three have all moved to Britain since. Fourth-placed Invite Special had previously finished third at Listed level and was at the time rated roughly the equivalent of 130 by the French handicapper. While the translation is not exact, it is enough to suggest that Houx Gris is not as far off the ten-year standard as first glance would imply. The weight received from Saint Sam was a clincher.

Paul Nicholls quietly told us: "He's a new horse to us who has won twice on heavy ground in France, so any more rain won't bother him. He's a very nice horse who has settled in well and it will be interesting to see how he gets on." He was holding something back in our humble opinion and has the look of one laid out for this particular race...

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