The Supreme Novices' Hurdle often produces winners who continue to shine at the Festival in future years. It is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the entire season though not a great race for favourites. Only 2 have won in the last 15 renewals, that said, only a couple of those have started longer than 12/1. 

Willie Mullins has won this race 6 times, Nicky Henderson 4 and Noel Meade twice. Handling ground conditions with the ability to act in large fields is key. This race is regularly won by a stayer but one who can race close to the pace - they rarely come from way back. 

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

Recurrence Factor

Our numbers are very strong for this race! The top 8 trends show a recurrence factor of 125/125 for 100% whilst the top 24 show 384/405 for 94.81%.

The Racing Horse Verdict

Had the ground been good this year and not closer to soft we might have opposed Appreciate It given the times his races were run in, but we prefer pace and stamina over speed at Chelthenham, and we believe in our 'Big Four Analysis' so have already bet win and stake saver, though we have done far better than the prices below. Had the ground been soft with heavy in places this would have been a Pacafi.

1: APPRECIATE IT 6/4 (WINNER)
2: Metier 11/2 (7th)
3: Ballyadam 13/2 (2nd)

He surprised me and impressed me. I was wondering if he was a two-and-a-half mile horse or a two-mile horse. I know he can easily do it over two and a half, but to come back to two miles and put in a performance like that in a Grade 1 was impressive. I'd say we'll go down the two-mile route now. He's not flashy like Ferny Hollow but he has a great cruising speed and covers a lot of ground which helps him to burn other horses off - Willie Mullins (27 December 2020).

Coming into tomorrow's race Willie told us: "I had him down as a stayer so the fact that he has that turn of foot is good too. He owes me - he destroyed a pair of sheepskin gloves of mine on Saturday evening. But we’re here with him, and his two performances have been good so far, so we’re pleased with him. What he did at Christmas was terrific, and I’m wondering whether he was as good in himself at Dublin or was it a better race? He did what he had to when he had to and we all thought he was in trouble turning for home, but when Ballyadam came to him he got the job done – which was the sign of a good horse, and he’s been in great form since."

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