Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m7f199y

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
13February2021

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is the leading minimum-distance chase for novices in the National Hunt calendar for the speedier types, so a test for accurate jumping at speed. Experience is key in this race.

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

1.55: (Old) Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m7f199y.

21/21: Ran over fences a maximum of 5 times (100%)
20/20: Break of at least 21 days since last run (100%)
15/15: Ran 1-5 times over fences (100%)
13/13: At least 4 runs over hurdles (100%)
13/13: At least 1 chase win (100%)
13/13: At least 1 win that season (100%)
11/11: Won last time out (100%)

20/21: Ran in novice chase last time out (95%)
20/21: Won novice chase between 2m – 2m1f (95%)
30/32: Finished top 2 in all completed chase starts (94%)
14/15: Finished top 2 every time completed the course (93%)
13/14: Aged 6 or 7yo (93%)
12/13: Bred in Ireland or France (92%)
12/13: At least 2 previous chase runs (92%)
12/13: At least 1 run at Cheltenham previously (92%)
20/22: Aged 5-7yo (91%)
19/21: Started at 9/1 or shorter (90%)

11/13: At least 2 wins over hurdles (85%)
16/20: Won last time out (80%)
....7/9: Won by Mullins or Henderson (78%)
...9/12: Top 3 in betting (75%)
...6/12: Winning favourites (50%)

  • Nicky Henderson has won race 6 times
  • Willie Mullins has won race 4 times in the last 10 years
  • Last 8yo winner was in 2010
  • Last 5yo winner was in 2006
  • Decent hurdlers (rated 142+) make the best candidates but good consistent form over fences is essential (top 2 finishes in all completed chases).
  • Winning favourites in non-handicap chases show 44-119 for 37%

Recurrence Factor

The top 7 trends are strong and show a recurrence figure of 106/106 for 100% whilst the top 17 trends show 278/291 for 95.53%.
  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Verdict

Shishkin was last year's Supreme Novices Hurdle winner and odds-on to win the Arkle. He has been so impressive winning his three chases and his jumping excellent. His last two wins have been in Grade 2s and he has won on good to heavy ground.

 He was by far the best the best novice hurdler and clearly the one to beat. A high-class horse with the rare ability to settle yet quicken in an instant, he has been nursed along with this in mind and, unless events transpire against him, he can become a great!

1: SHISHKIN evens (WINNER)
2: Franco De Port 9/1 (5th)
3: Allmankind 5/1 (4th)

Energumene has since been scratched giving us a penalty kick and we will take that. Shishkin is the best chance of a British winner and now trading at 1/2.

Shiskin felt great, I thought they went a proper gallop today. It was a real test in that ground and really hard work. I thought his jumping was very accurate and probably the best it has been so far. He has come into the race very easily and strode away. I don't think that could have been more simple for him. It was very straightforward. I was happy that he strode away all the way to the line and put real distance between him and the second horse. He had a good workout there, which is ideal for his prep. Onwards to Cheltenham and fingers crossed - Nico de Boinville (30 January 2021)
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