The Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m1f

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
13February2021

The Ultima Handicap Chase is the first of five competitive handicap chases run at the festival. It provides a stiff test over a trip of 3m1f where the pace is always strong. Novice or second-season chasers have a good record in the race, making life difficult for the proven class horses who are more exposed. 

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

2.30 (Old) Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m1f

16/16: Aged 7-10yo (100%)
16/16: Rested for at least 16 days (100%)
13/13: Won race at 3m or more (100%)
13/13: Trained in Britain (100%)
12/12: At least 5 runs over hurdles (100%)
12/12: At least 1 previous win over hurdles (100%)

15/16: Ran between 2-7 times since October (94%)
11/12: Won Class 3 Chase or higher (92%)
11/12: At least 5 runs over hurdles (92%)
11/12: Rated 132 or higher (92%)
11/12: Previously won over hurdles (92%)
11/12: Previously recorded chase win (92%)
11/12: At least 1 previous chase win (92%)

....8/9: Wore headgear (89%)
11/13: Aged 7 to 9yo (85%)
11/13: Raced 3 or more times that season (85%)
11/13: At least 5 previous chase runs (85%)
10/12: At least 3 runs that season (83%)
..9/12: Carried 10st 6lbs to 11st 8lbs (75%)
..2/13: Winning favourites (15%)
..3/42: Outright winning favourites (7%)

  • Jonjo O'Neill has trained 3 of the last 12 winners
  • Paul Nicholls 0-23
  •  Venetia Williams 0-17
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-19
  • Only one winner in last 12 years not raced at previous Festival
  • Aged 11yo or older are just 2-49 to get placed yet alone win.
  • No horse this century has defied a handicap mark higher than 155
  • Winning favourites in handicap chases 24-116 for 21%

Recurrence Factor

The top 6 trends show a recurring factor of 82/82 for 100% whilst the top 13 show 163/170 for 95.88%
  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Verdict

Favourites have an awful record in this race and we will be looking for a lurker. The market proved a good guide last year with the first four returning at odds of 15/2, 10/1, 11/2 jf and 11/2 jf in the 23-runner renewal.

1: MILAN NATIVE 9/1 (9th)
2: Discordantly 16/1 (6th)
3: One For The Team 17/2 (5th) 

Milan Native has had a quiet winter since making a winning return in October but has probably been eyeing up the Festival all along. Had wind surgery since last seen so now respected. Doubt he will start at 9/1 come post-time and we are certain to have perceived value! We are opposing the favourite Happygolucky despite having winning course form and is not in our first three.

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