REDCAR Racecourse Template (Monday 28 October 2024)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Racing Horse offers our Redcar Racecourse Template for Monday 28 October 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 3 Handicaps, 3 Novice Races and a Maiden Race. The going is expected to be soft, good to soft in places.

Data: Last 5 years
Non-handicaps                      Handicaps
2yo    42   110   38%	 -10.80	   6	 19   32%    -5.90
3yo    39    73   53%	  +5.17	   53	156   34%    -9.02
4yo+   10    24   42%	  -3.70	   50	196   26%   -35.11
TOTAL  91   207   44%	  -9.33    109	371   29%   -50.03

Top 5 Trainers                                    +/-    E
Tim Easterby (9%)	44-539	  8%   -131.74    -1%    5
David O'Meara (12%)	33-245	 13%	+17.30    +1%    0
Michael Dods (10%)	27-242	 11%	-61.05    +1%    1
K R Burke (14%)	        20-112	 18%	-13.13    +4%    1
Richard Fahey (11%)	17-201	  8%	-75.04    -3%    0

Top 5 Jockeys                                     +/-    R
David Allan (11%)	31-304	 10%   +104.85    -1%    3
Connor Beasley (12%)	30-219	 14%	-15.05    +2%    0
Jason Hart (12%)	22-187	 12%	-24.53    +0%    6
Daniel Tudhope (16%)	20-101	 20%	 +3.45    +4%    0
Ben Curtis (16%)	18-109	 17%	-32.09    +1%    0

Top 5 Owners                                      +/-    E
Obaid Al Maktoum (21%)	 6-25	 24%	 +0.29    +3%    0
Thoroughbred Homes (9%)  5-9	 56%	+28.75   +47%    0
John & Jess Dance (13%)	 5-21	 24%	 +1.20   +11%    0
Cheveley Park (17%)	 5-23	 22%	 -1.70    +5%    1
Clipper Logistics (14%)	 5-27	 19%	-14.64    +5%    0

Upcoming fixtures
Tuesday 5 November 2024

CONFIGURATION: Reccar is a narrow left-handed, oval track which is approximately a mile and three quarters in extent. Races between five furlongs and one mile are run on the straight track. The course is perfectly flat, and with the exception of its two sharp bends, provides a very fair test. The course drains well, and when conditions are riding fast, it can sometimes be difficult to make up ground from off the pace.

WINNING FAVOURITES: Redcar has some interesting numbers. meeting contains 4 non-handicap races of some interest and a chance to profit. Generally, the course shows winning favourites at 200-578 for34.60% (-59.36), but 3yo & 4yo winning favourites in non-handicaps score 49-97 for 50.52% (+1.47) so clearly an angle into the meeting. By the way, winning 3yo favourites in non-handicaps record 6-11 for 55% this year, whilst 4yo winning favourites in non-handicaps record 2-2 for 100%.

TRAINERS: Tim Easterby (9%) is top trainer at the course, solely based on volume. He scores at just 8% and a huge loss of -131.74 to level stakes. He has 5 runners for this meeting.

At the opposite end of the racing spectrum, John Gosden (21%) presents an intriguing contender in JAVA RAJA at 3.05. He dispatches two to Redcar, but this untested 3yo Galileo colt remains a wildcard. Clearly, his training has faced delays, making the market's reaction one to watch. The trainer opted for the 207-mile journey north to challenge the unfortunate NO RETREAT, who arguably should have secured victory at Windsor last time.

JOCKEYS: David Allan (11%) is in great form scoring 7-28 for 25% in the last 14 days. He is top jockey at Redcar and has 3 rides including TOOTSIE 1.25, CANGOFAR 1.55 & GEMINI MAN 2.30. Cannot spot an obvious winner, but he knows where the winning post is scoring 127-1196 for 11% (+19.09) at this course.

Callum Rodriguez (14%) has 4 interesting rides and must surely go close to a winner. His rides include NATIVE INSTINCT 1.25, MOBY QUICK 1.55, TWO B TANNED 2.30 & TAZIMA 3.05.

OWNERS: Cheveley Park Stud (17%) has a runner in MAELSTROM 1.25 trained by William Haggas (22%), who was a beaten favourite in a Class 4 Maiden at Newbury last time out, tomorrow is a Class 5. The fact this 2yo colt was made favourite last time signifies 'ability at home' and critically his dam won twice as a 2yo including a Group 3. Haggas scores 14-57 for 25% at Redcar and 25-57 for 44% finish first or second for forecast players. What is perceived value I hear you ask? Bet365 have opened up at 4/1 (16.07) and we make that an attractive each-way proposition given we priced the colt up closer to 3/1.

RED FLAG: Jason Hart (12%) has 6 rides tomorrow, three of which find themselves on the pertinent board and will surely be amongst the winners. We are playing stop at a winner and expect to collect! He is not in the greatest of form currently, scoring just 2-41 for 5% and now gone 13 rides over a period of 5 days without a winner. Worth noting, he had his best year in 2023 riding 111 winners for a strike rate of 12%, but this year shows 85 winners at 10%. His rides include PHOENIX OF DREAMS 12.55, MAELSTROM 1.25, THE TRICKSTER 1.55, LAUGHING LORD 2.30, HAAFAPENNY 3.05 & THUNDER ROAR 3.40.

12.55: 5f217y) Jumps Free Trial At racingtv.com/freetrial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (3yo+) 

  • Favourites 53%
  • PHOENIX OF DREAMS (J & S Quinn) forget heavy ground Chester run last time, should be immune to race tactics, sets the standard including 3 second places, Jason Hart rides
  • KRANJCAR (G Boughey) token second place nomination, Billy Loughnane rides

1.25: 5f217y) racingtv.com/freetrial EBF Novice Stakes (For horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (GBB) (Class 5) (2yo)

  • Favourites 38%
  • MAELSTROM (W Haggas) beaten favourite last time out, capable of better. Jason Hart rides
  • DAN TUCKER (J O'Keefe) Listed run last time out, RPR 89, form he showed when 2 of 17 in a 6f Thirsk novice in September is the best on offer here, Harrison Shaw rides

1.55: 1m1f EBF "Double Trigger" Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

  • Favourites 38%
  • NOVELISTA (C Johnston) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, Billy Loughnane rides
  • THE TRICKSTER (J & S Quinn) 1-1 in this class, open to progress and negates penalty. Jason Hart rides
  • MOBY QUICK (G Scott) trainer 20% with his 2yos this season and 20% at Redcar, market check advised. Callum Rodriguez rides

2.30: 1m2f1y Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-55)

  • Favourites (NA)
  • PRINCE HECTOR (J Bedi) beaten favourite last time out, freshened up since. Paul Muir (3) rides (0-36)
  • GEMINI MAN (I Jardine) formerly with C Donoghue, market check advised. David Allan rides
  • ON THE BUBBLE (B Haslam) 1-1 at the course, first time hood, needed last run. 25/1 with Bet365 looks a good price. Jonny Peate rides

3.05: 1m2f1y Empentis - Supporting Equine Staff Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (3yo+)

  • Favourites 53%
  • LASTING LOVE (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, experienced but not progressing, long traveller 271 miles, P J McDonald rides
  • NO RETREAT (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out and should have won, hard to beat on that basis. Jack Mitchell rides
  • JAVA RAJA (J & T Gosden) interesting sort and beautifully bred, travels 207 miles for belated debut, market check advised. Kieran Shoemark rides

3.40: 7f216y Jumps Season Free Trial On RacingTV Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-88)

  • Favourites (NA)
  • DEBORA'S DREAM (J Candish) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with R Varian costing 80,000gns, P J McDonald rides
  • REVICH (R Spencer) weighted to win 95 > 86, biggest earner £175,573, step back in the right direction at Ayr last month now dropped another 2lb. Kieran Shoemark rides
  • THUNDER ROAR (Coyle & Wood) beaten favourite last time out, thriving with 3 second places from last 4 starts. Jason Hart rides

4.15: 5f217y Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

  • Favourites (NA)
  • MUSIC SOCIETY (T Easterby) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Brandon Wilkie rides
  • TRAVEL CANDY (B Ellison) turned in her best effort of the season when second over 5f here 10 days ago, Shay Farmer (7) rides
  • OSO RAPIDO (R Fell) C&D winner, 2-3 at the course, weighted to win 82 > 65, Sean D Bowen (3) rides

Jason Weaver on Redcar: A few ridges have developed at Redcar over the years and you definitely need to keep on the right side of those. The bottom turn is tricky to navigate too - there’s been more than one problem there - and the straight rides tremendously long. So, although it’s flat enough, races seem to change three or four times after the home turn. If you happen to be in front with one breathing down your neck, you have little chance of getting home, so patience is the key.

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