The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Tuesday 29 October 2024. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft.

Data: Last 5 years
Non-handicaps                      Handicaps
Hurdle  65   133   49%    -1.72    35   121   29%   -25.05
Chase    6    15   40%    -4.82    54   157   34%    -0.35
NHF     18    48   38%    -5.66
Total   89   196   45%   -12.19    89   278   32%   -25.40

Top 5 Trainers                                    +/-    E
Paul Nicholls (25%)	56-219	 26%	-33.93    +1%    3
Evan Williams (11%)	26-243	 11%	-34.87    +0%    7
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)	15-112	 13%	-34.04    -2%    0
Venetia Williams (16%)	14-96	 15%	-12.12    -1%    0
Fergal O'Brien (18%)	14-123	 11%	-38.52    -7%    3

Top 5 Jockeys                                     +/-    R
Harry Cobden (23%)	42-157	 27%	-31.72    +4%    4
Ben Jones (13%)	        21-89	 24%	+74.55   +11%    0
Jonjo O'Neill Jr (15%)	17-105	 16%	-24.39    +1%    1
Adam Wedge (12%)	16-153	 10%	-32.67    -2%    5
Lorcan Williams (14%)	15-73	 21%	-18.68    +7%    4

Top 5 Owners                                      +/-    E
John P McManus (17%)	10-68	 15%	 +1.31    -2%    1
William Rucker (11%)	9-52	 17%	 -0.75    +6%    1
David Brace (12%)	7-27	 26%	+25.00   +14%    0
Walters Plant (22%)	7-36	 19%	+11.95    -3%    1
Colm Donlon (24%)	5-12	 42%	+12.32   +18%    0

Upcoming fixtures
Wednesday 6 November 2024
Friday 22 November 2024

CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

WINNING FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 178 winning favourites from 474 races for 37.55% (-37.59) so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 89-196 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 89-278 for 32% for a 13% differential. Best category are non-handicap hurdle favourites scoring at 65-133 for 49% (-1.72) whilst worst category are handicap hurdle favourites scoring 35-121 for 29% (-25.05)

TRAINERS: Two trainers look set to dominate the card and our angle into the card. Paul Nicholl (25%) is the top trainer at the course, boasting a 26% success rate. For the first time in this century, Nicholls did not secure one of the top two positions in the trainers' championship last season, with Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton, his former assistant, surpassing him. Nevertheless, his Ditcheat yard produced 132 winners, the highest number by any stable, and he has described it as the toughest year in his 33-year career. We know he is hurting and anticipate he will be highly motivated this season. He has previously sacrificed his Cheltenham aspirations to be top UK Trainer but he is no longer guaranteed to win this accolade from here!

Tomorrow he sends 3 to Chepstow, all with chances, they include BELLIANO 1.00, QUEBECOIS 1.30 & THE FINAL WORD 4.20. At the moment for 2024/25 Nicholls (eighth) has a little ground to make up on Skelton (first):

2024/2025 UK Trainer's Championship:
1 Dan Skelton         70-339 for 21%   £701,408  
8 Paul Nicholls        23-97   for 24%   £234,307
- Nicky Henderson  14-68   for 21%   £115,056
- Willie Mullins         4-9     for 44%     £19,969

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) is top jockey at the course and scores at 27% so +4% above his national average, Last season at Chepstow he rode 10-33 for 30% (+4.38). He has 4 rides including BELLIANO 1.00, QUEBECOIS 1.30, KING TURGEON 2.35 & THE FINAL WORD 4.20.

OWNERS: The standout figure from any of our top 5 owners, albeit from a very small sample, is Colm Donlon (24%) who shows 5-12 for 42% (+12.32)

J P McManus (17%) run the beaten favourite last time out SOLAR SYSTEM 3.45 trained by Hobbs & White (12%) and ridden by Micheal Nolan (9%).

Walters Plant (22%) run the unraced 4yo C'EST DIFFERENT 4.20 trained by Sam Thomas (21%) and ridden by Dylan Johnston (12%).

The Ruckers (11%) run the 9yo CAN YOU CALL 3.10 trained by Evan Williams (11%) and ridden by Adam Wedge (12%).

RED FLAG: Dan Skelton (18%) looks the trainer to follow for this meeting. This season shows him 70-339 for 21% so +3% above his national average. He comes to Paul Nicholls patch tomorrow and has 6 runners including THE NEW LION 1.00, JUVENTUS DE BRION 1.30, PILLAR ROCK 2.00, MUMFORD'S MAGIC 2.35, THEFORMISMIGHT 3.10 & A PAI DE NOM 4.20, All six will be ridden by Harry Skelton (22%) and in the last 14 days he has scored 11-38 for 29%. This current season the jockey is riding at 26% so +4% above his national average.

Everything looks in place for the team and will probably be expecting a win double. But, there is a negative to report, Team Skelton score just 13-130 for a modest 10% (-64.56) at the course, so a big -8% on the national average, and a set of figures that is hard to explain, given this is not a course to school horses. Skelton and Nicholls will have multiple winners and this pairing will heavily feature on the card.

1.00: 2m3f100y Colourfence Newport Long Life Garden Railings Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div I) (Class 4) (4yo+) (4yo+)

• • Favourites 49%
  • TAMARIND BAY (P & M Bowen) beaten favourite last time out, fair form on 2 of his 3 outings in bumpers. Makes hurdle debut up in trip, Gavin Sheehan rides
  • BELLIANO (P Nicholls) formerly with T O'Brien, purchased for £255,000 after easily winning his sole outing in Irish points. Trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings. Harry Cobden rides and 27% at Chepstow
  • THE NEW LION (H Skelton) bred to stay well, but showed no shortage of speed when making an impressive winning start, readily clear in bumper debut at Market Rasen in April, Harry Skelton rides and 41% on hurdles favourites

1.30: 2m3f100y Colourfence Newport Long Life Garden Railings Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div II) (Class 4) (4yo+)

• • Favourites 49%
  • JUVENTUS DE BRION (D Skelton) drops from Grade 2 to Class 4, showed useful form over hurdles, Harry Skelton rides and 41% on hurdling favourites
  • QUEBECOIS (P Nicholls) drops from Grade 1 to Class 4, something amiss when weakening quickly in Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, remains good prospect. Harry Cobden rides and 27% at Chepstow
  • MURPHY'S MILAN (Hobbs & White) bred to stay well, shaped accordingly when 3 of 8 in Exeter bumper on NH debut, not knocked about. Makes hurdle bow, Micheal Nolan rides

2.00: 2m11y Cambria Consulting - Civil And Structural Engineers Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-100)

• • Favourites 29%
  • PILLAR ROCK (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, not shown too much to date but half-brother to 3 winners. Harry Skelton rides
  • VENTARA (J Tizzard) beaten favourite last time out. Lightly-raced maiden who has made the frame in both handicap starts, Brendan Powell rides
  • LOVERDOSE (R Walford) landed gamble on handicap debut last time out. Won over 2m on Flat in France in spring 2022, type to progress further his season. Harry Kimber rides

2.35: 3m2f54y Colourfence Newport Fencing Guaranteed For 25Yrs Handicap Chase (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)

• • Favourites 34%
  • MUMFORD'S MAGIC (D Skelton) taken to build on his promising Stratford debut chasing second, Harry Skelton rides
  • IBERIO (J Tizzard) formerly with Hobbs & White, 3m hurdle winner but yet to score in this sphere. Brendan Powell rides
  • MAGICAL ESCAPE (K Bailey) course winner, resumed after a wind op with a promising 2 of 5 in Exeter handicap chase on his debut over fences 19 days ago, sticking to task. Tom Bellamy rides

3.10: 2m3f98y Colourfence Newport Low Maintenance Fencing Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130)

• • Favourites 34%
  • RANGE (S Thomas) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 28% in early season. Dylan Johnston rides
  • THEFORMISMIGHTY (D Skelton) expensive pointer, interesting chasing debutant, stable won this race last year. Harry Skelton rides
  • NOTHIN TO ASK (F O'Brien) C&D winner when winning this race 2 years ago, now weighted to win 126 > 122, Liam Harrison ride (0-63)

3.45: 2m3f100y Colourfence Newport Free No Obligation Quote Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-105)

• • Favourites 29%
  • SOLAR SYSTEM (Hobbs & White) beaten favourite last time out, this 5yo improved since switched handicaps, Micheal Nolan rides
  • WOT YOU WEARING (R Stephens) back-to-back C&D winner last November, very encouraging start to present campaign, Ciaran Gethings rides
  • SIAM PARK (J Tizzard) Lot of promise in 15f Wincanton maidens on first 2 starts under Rules. Suffered heavy defeat upped to 19.2f on Fontwell handicap debut in April but since undergone a wind op, still early days for this 5yo, Brendon Powell rides

4.20: 2m11y Colourfence Newport For Gates And Sheds Open National Hunt Flat Race (Cat 1 Elimination) (GBB) (Class 5) (4-5yo)

• • Favourites 38%
  • A PAI DE NOM (D Skelton) €50,000 3yo purchase and is related to a useful winner for the stable before market clues, Harry Skelton rides
  • SOBER GLORY (Hobbs & White) £110,000 4yo purchase formerly with C Doyle, Micheal Nolan rides
  • THE FINAL WORD (P Nicholls) £70,000 purchase and very good vibes from Owners Group, formerly with S Doyle. 51 of Getaway's progeny have won their first bumper, Harry Cobden rides and 27% at Chepstow

∼

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE - WHAT'S ON

MICK FITZGERALD talks about CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE: Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump.