The Racing Horse offers our Wolverhampton Racecourse Template for Saturday 19 October 2024. This template has been sponsored by our friends at THE WINNING ANGLE. There is a 9-race card including 8 Handicaps and a Novice Stakes Race. The Tapeta going is expected to be standard.
Given the standard of this poor quality meeting our pertinence will be severely tested, so please take care with the use of this information. That said, there will be 9 winners tomorrow, so 9 opportunities.
Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicaps Handicaps 2yo 107-257 42% -42.40 41-122 34% +10.96 3yo 163-334 49% -12.31 257-751 34% -49.62 4yo+ 78-172 45% +13.50 417-1341 31% -132.50 TOTAL 348-763 46% -41.21 715-2214 32% -171.17 TOP 5 TRAINERS past 5 years +/- E Tony Carroll (9%) 83-940 9% -195.72 +0% 1 Mark Loughnane (9%) 69-656 11% -90.89 +2% 3 Michael Appleby (11%) 68-584 12% -3.07 +1% 1 David Evans (11%) 58-540 11% -128.67 +0% 0 George Boughey (17%) 56-352 16% -27.22 -1% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS past 5 years +/- R Rossa Ryan (16%) 121-584 21% +91.62 +5% 0 Luke Morris (9%) 112-988 11% -224.00 +2% 0 Hollie Doyle (14%) 90-593 15% -170.24 +1% 0 David Probert (12%) 80-684 12% -102.96 +0% 0 Jack Mitchell (17%) 75-433 17% -136.35 +0% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 57-184 31% -19.31 +6% 0 Saeed Manana (15%) 24-109 22% +13.43 +7% 0 Ahmed A Maktoum (24%) 21-56 38% +4.98 +14% 0 Power Geneva (14%) 19-119 16% -11.22 +2% 1 Antony Brittain (8%) 15-207 7% -89.83 -1% 0 UPCOMING FIXTURES: Saturday 19 October 2024 Monday 21 October 2024 Thursday 24 October 2024 Friday 25 October 2024 Monday 4 November 2024
CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!
- Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 1063-2977 for 35.71% so nearly 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£212.38 to a £1 win stake.
- Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 46%.
- Winning favourites in handicaps score 32%.
- Best category is 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 163-334 for 49% (-12.31).
- Worst category is 4yos+ winning favourites in handicaps 417-1341 for 31% (-132.50).
- Differential between best and worst category is a huge 19%.
- Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (9%), this position is based on volume of runners (83-940 for 9%).
- Richard Hughes (14%) is 12-28 for 43% (+29.75) at this course for 2024.
- James Owen (16%) is 12-33 for 36% (+19.10) at this course for 2024.
- Top jockey at the course is Rossa Ryan (16%) who scores at 121-584 for 21% (+91.62) so +5% above his national average. For 2024 he shows 33-139 for 24% (+44.79) so +8% above his national average.
- Godolphin (25%) are leading owners at the course and score at 31% so +6% above their national average.
TRAINERS: Mark Loughnane (9%) lies second on our leader board and has 3 runners including ZU RUN 6.00, ARCADIAN NIGHTS 6.30 & PYSANKA 8.30.
Michael Appleby (11%) is third top trainer at Wolverhampton, but currently in the doldrums showing 0-46 over the past 22 days. He has a runner in GOLDEN DELITE 8.30, this one is not expected to place let along feature!
George Scott (13%) has an interesting runner with a 3yo unexposed Frankel colt MONSIEUR FUDGE 6.30. 
He made his debut in a good Class 4 Newmarket Maiden in August for Richard Hannon, and was fancied to run well finishing a decent third. The colt is now at this third stable within four months and made an 11/8 favourite on his first start for his latest trainer. Danny Muscutt rides. By the way, the 13/2 with William Hill (18.45) looks a very good each way bet to nothing price, even from stall 10 of 11. This is Scott's only runner of the day.
Trainers going forward is always of interest, so the following personal best information regarding George Scott might be helpful:
2024: 38-253 15% -29.38 2023: 36-231 16% -29.68 2022: 37-205 18% -44.75 2021: 18-219 8% -94.13 2020: 18-181 10% -73.36 2019: 20-190 11% -66.62 2018: 19-193 10% -115.61 2017: 22-116 19% +9.97 2016: 12-98 12% -11.38 2015: 1-3 33% +14.00
A number of things worth noting. The trainer has a national average of 13% but is scoring 15% for this current year, and he has now beaten his previous best score of 37 winners proving he is on an upward curve. Also, at Wolverhampton he shows 22-125 for 18% (-5.12) so +5% above his national average, so this information is well worth cut and pasting into your rough book.
Ian Williams (9%) trains just 23 miles from the course and as we go to post he has 9 runners. His horses are not in great form showing just 1-27 for less than 4% (-24.50) for October, whilst his September figures show 4-59 for 7% (-42.84) totalling 5-86 for 5.81% (-67.34). The trainer is 31-300 for 10% at the course. His runners should be processed and filtered.
JOCKEYS: Derby winning jockey Richard Kingscote (13%) has not been asked to ride at Ascot, so his 5 rides should be filtered, they include HIS FINEST HOUR 5.00, BEAUZON 6.00, BEYLERBEYI 6.30, TRIBAL WISDOM 7.00 & MARINAKIS 8.00
Rob Hornby (10%) has 4 rides here including SAMATIAN 4.27, TWILIGHT DANCER 6.00, GHASHAM 6.30 & MR TRICK 8.00
OWNERS: Power Geneva (14%) run WALKING ON CLOUDS 7.30 trained by John Butler and ridden by Liam Keniry. This exposed 5yo has won 7 races, but now looks out of love with racing and not finished better than 6th in any of his last 10 starts.
RED FLAG: Saffie Osborne (12%) is a grumpy sort at the best of times, and now her October figures show 1-33 for 3% (-24.00). Since August she has scored just 7-102 for less than 7% (-42.50) so well below her national average, and what will annoy her most is the 14 second places contained within those figures! She will be feisty right now and we are playing a form of stop at a winner!
She has no rides on Friday so freshened up for this meeting, where she has 6 rides including BRIVIDI 5.00, MISS DANDYLION 5.30, HIGHLAND SPRING 6.30, SALAMANCA LAD 7.00, NOT JUST YET 7.30 & SEA OF CHARM 8.30. At Wolverhampton for the current year she shows 5-33 for 15% (+0.50) and 21-152 for 14% (-24.75). TRH does not believe she will be 1-39 on Sunday morning!
PERTINENCE & PERTAINING4.27
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Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair - Jason Weaver |
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