PACAFI (25th October 2016) Part One

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LOOKED MORE THAN USEFUL ON DEBUT

Brian The Snail is owned by his trainer and a £50,000 purchase (grey colt) out of Zebedee. He is a half-brother to 5f 2yo Listed winner Shadow Hunter (RPR 97) and looked a useful prospect in his own right when justifying market support on debut in a Pontefract maiden (5f, good to firm) last month. He won with a minimum of fuss, the runner-up won next time, is the least exposed, open to loads of improvement and the Fahey horses always come on for a run.

HE WILL COME ON PLENTY FOR THAT - ROBIN O'RYAN

His debut was in a Class 5 over 5f on good to firm ground in a fair maiden and today we have soft ground and that is the fly in the ointment. He was made favourite so lots expected and came through to win quite nicely and was staying on at the finish. Importantly assistant trainer Robin O'Ryan told us after the race: "Brian The Snail is a grand, laid back horse and it took Tony Hamilton a while to pull him up there. He had done everything very easily at home and he had a really good blow so he will come on plenty for that. He is a horse we like a lot and it will be a surprise if he doesn't go on to better things."

GROUND IS OUR ONLY CONCERN!

On this basis we doubt they would race him if the ground did not suit. His sire has won on good to soft though the mare Sweet Irish was unraced. That said she was sired by Shamardal and he won two of his six races on soft ground. Clearly we have factored the price into the ground conditions and our view on visual evidence is that he will be a bit better than his rivals, so even if not receiving optimum ground will win!

CATTERICK IS ONE SHARP RACECOURSE

Catterick is a very sharp track and a racecourse for specialists. The round course is virtually downhill all the way from 7 furlongs out, and the 5 furlong races which start on a separate chute are also downhill all the way with the first furlong being quite an extreme downhill section. The course certainly doesn't suit galloping types and is ideal for the small nimble horse. Our bet tracked the pace on debut so will be able to lead or take a sit. The 5 furlong races at Catterick are run around a slight left handed dog leg, and the stats suggest that being low is slightly favoured. The bias isn't massive but when the ground is soft then the low drawn bias is perhaps a bit larger. We are drawn 1.

OF HIS RIVALS

Tschierschen posted three seconds before coming good by a short-head at Bath, though that was on fast going and she's never faced ground with some give. Kiribati has been showing good early speed in his races but finding little in the way of pace when headed in the closing stages and Secret Potion has been well beaten since scrambling home at Bath in August. If ours builds as expected they will struggle to match the Pacafi.

TIMEFORM COMMENTS

BRIAN THE SNAIL won in good style on his debut and should take a bit of stopping if coping with the softer conditions he'll face on this occasion. The William Haggas-trained Tschierschen, who made it fourth-time lucky at Bath recently, could be the one to give Richard Fahey's charge most to do.

Today's Pacafi: Brian The Snail 1.20 Catterick at 5/6 (SkyBet, Paddy Power and BetVictor). 1pt win advised and value is better than 4/7. St Malo 5.00 Newcastle at 5/6 (Betbright 19.40) is a Pacafi. 1pt win advised. Not sure about value...

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