The Chepstow Racecourse Finale
April 26th, 2024
The Racing Horse has enjoyed this particular National Hunt Season at Chepstow more than any other, s[...]
Pacafi (16 August 2018)
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CONCELLO 2.10 Salisbury at 5/6Sorvio Insurance Brokers Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (7f)Pedigree: E16,000 2yo; eighth foal; half-sister to five winners inc Dancheur (5f-6f, inc at 2; RPR 92), Jubail (1m Flat; 80/2m hurdle) and Danzeb (5f 2yo; 71); dam unraced half-sister to useful 1m/1m2f Flat/2m jump winner HitmanTHE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE Optimum Ground: Good to firm (10) Optimum Distance: 7f (10) Jockey Booking: Oisin Murphy (10) Trainer Form: July shows 15-53 for 28% (10) RPR: 83 (9) The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50 Concello has a Group 2 entry next month Main Danger: Canavese 10/1 Excellent debut consideringConcello finished runner-up over today’s trip at Lingfield last month on her debut and Archie Watson’s filly is taken to confirm running with Canavese and open her account. The filly ran a race full of promise after missing the start and using up early petrol. She was then very green and is certain to improve massively today.Trainer formArchie Watson has a 21% strike rate with horses running in races between 7f and up to 10f since the start of the 2013 season and a 22% strike rate in mid season since the start of the 2013 season. His horses are in rampant form and July saw him operating at 28% and this was his best month since he started training - things are going well. Salisbury is a favoured racecourse, he has returned from there with 4 winners from just 13 runners for 31% and a level-stake profit of +12.75pts. The excellent Oisin Murphy rides.Of her rivalsHawayel finished in the rear in the Albany two starts ago but is competing at a more realistic level here if the step up from 6f can unlock improvement. Popping Corks has not shown any significant progress in four starts to date and steps up a furlong with the remainder even harder to recommend. Canavese might be the hardest to beat.TimeformCONCELLO lacked for know how at a crucial stage when runner-up on debut at Lingfield 3 weeks ago, and with that experience expected to bring her on, she can improve past Hawayel, whose profile is starting to look a bit flaky. Popping Corks is another to consider.ValueWe had initially wanted even money but that was with a full field of eight so on reflection 5/6 looks to be a good price. It would be a concern if our Pacafi drifted - we do not believe that will happen especially as the each-way angle has gone! One interesting statistic is Jonathan Portman's profit when having one runner at a flat meeting since the start of the 2013 season is £115.61 and he saddles Florence Rose at 20/1 (Bet365 18.19) |
The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.
10 Concello 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +9.08 S/R 90% 9 Beat That 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +8.08 S/R 89% 8 Restive Spirit 3.00 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +7.55 S/R 88% 7 Beatboxer (R4) 2.00 WIN 1.00 +0.90 +6.05 S/R 86% 6 Mutawaffer 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.15 S/R 83% 5 Magnetic Charm 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.31 +6.15 S/R 100% 4 Willie John 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.20 +4.84 S/R 100% 3 Battaash 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +3.64 S/R 100% 2 Royal Plaza 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +2.39 S/R 100% 1 Star Shield 2.67 WIN 1.00 +1.67 +1.67 S/R 100%
August SELECTIONS: 10 WIN: 9 LOSE: 1 S/R: 90% PROFIT: +9.08pts
(1111121111) First or second: 100.00%
19 Queen Medb 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.88 S/R 63% 18 L'Explora 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +6.88 S/R 67% 17 Kuwait Station 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +6.44 S/R 65% 16 Advanced Virgo 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.94 S/R 63% 15 Major Partnership 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.22 S/R 60% 14 Raymond Tusk 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +3.49 S/R 58% 13 Hazapour 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.74 S/R 54% 12 Wicklow Brave 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.74 S/R 58% 11 Altra Vita 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.94 S/R 55% 10 Inessa 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.94 S/R 60% 9 Wissahickon 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.14 S/R 55% 8 Fox Coach 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.14 S/R 63% 7 Herculean 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +4.14 S/R 71% 6 Thriving 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +3.64 S/R 67% 5 Ballydun Oscar 1.67 WIN 2.00 +1.34 +2.54 S/R 60% 4 Alsimsaam 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.20 S/R 50% 3 Altra Vita 1.80 WIN 2.00 +1.60 +2.20 S/R 67% 2 Construct (R4) 2.37 WIN 2.00 +2.60 +0.60 S/R 50% 1 Forever Together 1.67 LOSE 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
July SELECTIONS: 19 WIN: 12 LOSE: 7 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +5.88pts
(211L111281313111112) First or second: 78.95%
21 Moyassar 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.49 S/R 43% 20 Saxon Warrior 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.49 S/R 45% 19 Sporting Chance 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.49 S/R 47% 18 Kings Inn (E/W) 8.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.49 S/R 50% 17 Lotus Pond 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +5.59 S/R 53% 16 Caius Marcius 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.92 S/R 50% 15 Cracksman 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.92 S/R 53% 14 Battaash 3.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +6.92 S/R 57% 13 Settie Hill 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +7.92 S/R 62% 12 Sea Of Class 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +7.09 S/R 58% 11 New Winds 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +6.37 S/R 55% 10 Wufud 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.46 S/R 50% 9 Mutafani 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +6.46 S/R 56% 8 Eyehaveagoodidea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.89 S/R 50% 7 Aim Of Artemis 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +6.89 S/R 57% 6 Move Swiftly 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.79 S/R 50% 5 Red Mist (R4) 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +6.79 S/R 60% 4 Haul Away (R4) 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.56 +6.06 S/R 50% 3 Dream Today 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.50 S/R 33% 2 Masar (+saver) 17.00 WIN 1.00 +7.50 +6.50 S/R 50% 1 Settie Hill 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
June SELECTIONS: 21 WIN: 9 LOSE: 12 S/R: 43% PROFIT: +1.49pts
(U12113131411122217232) First or second: 71.43%
NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!
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