Pacafi (9 November 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 WINDSOR AVENUE 1.05 Hexham at 2/5

Alan Young Memorial Maiden Hurdle (2m4f)

Pedigree: £65,000 Chelt Dec 2017; second foal; half-brother to point/useful bumper/2m1f hurdle winner Ravenhill Road; dam 2m-2m7f hurdle winner, half-sister to 2m hurdle/chase winner Prosecco

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: October 2-6 for 33%   (10)
RPR: 134                            (10)                    
Optimum Ground: Uncertain             -
Optimum Distance: 2m2f-2m4f         (10)
Jockey Booking: Brian Hughes        (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:         (40)

Next best: Uncertain
      Win Plc Run RPR            Win Plc Run RPR
Life   2   1   3  134    GF-F     0   0   0   0
18/19  0   1   1  134    G        0   0   0   0
Dist   0   0   0   0     GS-HVY   2   1   3  134
Crs    0   0   0   0     6-15rs   0   1   1  134
CL4    0   1   1  134    10.8-11  0   1   1  134

Trip to suit

Windsor Avenue is well regarded by his connections. He was a Point winner who looked a decent prospect when winning both starts in bumpers last season and shaped with plenty of promise when second to a promising type on hurdle debut at Carlisle last month. With today's trip sure to suit he will be very hard to beat with a kind trip. His Carlisle run was his first since February so will also strip much fitter today.

Ground conditions

We are uncertain as to optimum ground. Windsor Avenue has won two of his three races but on soft and heavy, today he has to race on good ground though there is rain expected at the course and we want that to take any sting out of the surface. His best run to date was last time out when he finished second to a decent type on good to soft ground. 

Looking at the sire and dam, Winged Love won the Irish Derby on good to firm (his other win on heavy) and the dam Zaffarella won at this course over 3m on good ground though also won on heavy. She has produced the half-brother to the Pacafi in the 7yo Ravenhill Road who is owned and trained by the same team. He has won three races to date, two of them on good ground and the other on good to soft.

Trainer and jockey form

The trainer looks to be coming into form with his charges and 2 of the last 6 have won, both at 10/3. At Hexham over the past five seasons he scores 12 winners from 62 runners for 19% (-0.46). The excellent Brian Hughes rides and is 16-77 for 21% when he combines with Brian Ellison.

Of his rivals

Sheriff Garrett has placed in similar company over track and trip and is preferred to the equally exposed Rajapur while Cloghouge Boy and Warendorf have both passed the post first in point-to-points though the latter was later disqualified and debuts under Rules for a new trainer along with Western Aussie.

Timeform

Dual bumper winner WINDSOR AVENUE made a promising start over hurdles at Carlisle last month and has excellent claims of going one better now up in trip. Sheriff Garrett's merit is well established now, but he's still likely to pose the biggest threat.

Value

Do we have perceived value? Yes we believe we have. Had we been a bookmaker we would have priced up closer to 2/7. When looking for a danger it is hard to find one if our bet jumps without incident. Second favourite at 3/1 is the 4yo Sheriff Garrett who has run 26 times on turf without winning. Our bet looks a lot better than this form and both race off the same weight.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

6  Windsor Avenue     1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  +2.51  S/R  67%
5  Breath'ng Look (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.25  +0.12  +2.11  S/R  60%
4  Jahbath            2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +1.99  S/R  75%
3  Cloudlam           1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.99  S/R  67%
2  Enable             1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  +1.99  S/R 100%
1  Seddon (S)         2.62  WIN  1.25  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

November SELECTIONS: 6  WIN: 4 LOSE:  2  S/R: 67%  PROFIT: +2.51pts

      (113151)            FINISHED First or Second: 66.67%

22  Magna Grecia        3.00  WIN   1.25  +1.75  +0.49  S/R 50%
21  Fragrant Dawn       1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.26  S/R 48%
20  Dr Sanderson        1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.26  S/R 50%
19  Turjomaan           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.06  S/R 47%
18  Gifts Of Gold       1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.06  S/R 44%
17  Cracksman           1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  -1.06  S/R 47%
16  Stradivarius        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.89  S/R 44%
15  Collodi             2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  -2.89  S/R 40%
14  Gentle Look         3.00  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -3.99  S/R 36%
13  Dorah               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.79  S/R 38%
12  Desert Friend       2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.79  S/R 42%
11  Too Darn Hot        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -2.79  S/R 36%
10  Mary Somerville     2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.79  S/R 30%
 9  Cenotaph (S)        2.25  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -2.79  S/R 33%
 8  Forest View         2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.59  S/R 38%
 7  Huge Future         2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R 43%
 6  Royal Rendezvous    1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.41  S/R 50%
 5  Maj Partnership (S) 2.67  WIN   1.30  +1.37  +0.01  S/R 40%
 4  Allmankind          1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  -1.36  S/R 25%
 3  Ambling (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.30  +0.20  -1.80  S/R  0%
 2  Caid Du Lin         1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0% 
 1  Gentle Look         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

October SELECTIONS: 22  WIN: 11  LOSE: 11  S/R: 50%  PROFIT: +0.49pts

(4221113320112311121131)       FINISHED First or Second: 72.73%

20  Ten Sovereigns      1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +7.61   S/R  65%
19  Buffalo River       1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.94   S/R  63%
18  Jaunty Thor         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.94   S/R  67%
17  Gemini              4.00  WIN   1.00  +3.00  +8.94   S/R  71%
16  Finch Hatton        1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.94   S/R  69%
15  Jamil               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +6.94   S/R  73%
14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 13  LOSE: 7  S/R: 65%  PROFIT: +7.61pts

(14112161131111131221)       FINISHED First or Second: 80.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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