The Chepstow Racecourse Finale
April 26th, 2024
The Racing Horse has enjoyed this particular National Hunt Season at Chepstow more than any other, s[...]
Pacafi (8 August 2019)
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LATROBE 6.55 Leopardstown at 5/6
GRENKE Finance Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) 1m4f
Pedigree: E88,000 F, 65,000gns Y; third foal; half-brother to winners Diamond Fields (6f AW 2yo/7f Group 3; RPR 105) and Entangling (1m2f turf/1m4f AW; 93); dam Listed-placed 6f winner (93), half-sister to 7f Group 3 winner Sunday Times out of 5f-7f winner.
Trainer Form: 13-104 for 13% (10) OR & RPR: 112 & 120 (10) Optimum Ground: Good to firm (10) Optimum Distance: 1m4f (10) Jockey: Donnacha O'Brien (10) The Racing Horse Composite: (50) Main danger: Broad Street 11/2 RACE TYPE: 4yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 16-54 for 30% (-19.40)
In good shape at home - Joseph O'Brien
Joseph O'Brien, trainer: "Latrobe is in good shape at home. This race has been the plan for him since his last start at the Curragh and we are hoping for a good run from him."
Clear on ratings and has near optimum conditions
This smart colt was a creditable neck second of 10 to Twilight Payment at 5/2 in the Curragh Cup at the Curragh over 1m6f on good ground 41 days ago and looks difficult to oppose. He has been successful twice at 1m 4f on good to firm ground and gets those conditions today.
Near miss in Group 2
Last year's Irish Derby winner Latrobe hasn't won subsequently and it is possible he may be better over further these days having finished runner-up in the Irish St Leger in September. He has been as consistent as ever this term and could have too much quality for his rivals here following his latest near miss in a Group 2 at the Curragh.
Trainer form
At first glance Joseph O'Brien does not look in great form but 13% is his national strike rate average so his 10 rating is in context. Of his last 9 runners 3 have won for 33% but at the course he has poor winning figures with just 16-183 for 9%. That said he registers 19 second places, 20 third places and 20 fourth places. This looks to be Latrobe's last run before heading down to Australia later this year and the feeling is they want the colt to record a win this season first.
Of his rivals
Guaranteed beat the useful Riven Light in a Curragh Listed contest and didn't run at all badly in the Irish Derby but the unbeaten Broad Street takes a big step up in class and trip after landing a conditions' race over 1m1f at Gowran. Blenheim Palace has never raced beyond 1m2f but has run well in two Group 3 races over that trip in between racing in top company in France and the USA. He looks the type to improve over the distance.
Timeform
LATROBE has run with credit throughout this campaign and seems to have found himself an excellent opportunity to get his head in front for the first time in 2019, likely just needing to give his running. Broad Street is up in grade in his bid to maintain an unbeaten record but he's showed plenty of talent to this point, so he's feared most ahead of Guaranteed.
Value
If we accept he has near optimum conditions and racing in a grade below his station and clear on ratings from his rivals the Pacafi must be value at 5/6, we had the colt close to 4/5 or 8/11.
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The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.
7 Latrobe 1.90 WIN 1.00 +0.90 +2.77 S/R 71% 6 British Modern Art 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.87 S/R 67% 5 Rochester House 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +0.62 S/R 60% 4 Streamline 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 -0.18 S/R 50% 3 First In Line 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 -1.09 S/R 33% 2 The King 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.00 S/R 0% 1 Mass Media 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
August SELECTIONS: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.77pts
(L311111) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
(DDSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (57.14%)
17 Global Hunter 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +5.12 S/R 65% 16 Summer Romance 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.02 S/R 63% 15 Walk In Marrakesh 3.00 WIN 1.25 +1.75 +5.02 S/R 67% 14 Skeaping 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.27 S/R 64% 13 Burn Some Dust 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.37 +2.44 S/R 62% 12 Byline 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +1.07 S/R 58% 11 New Arrangement 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 -0.04 S/R 55% 10 Mon Frere 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.44 S/R 50% 9 Fleeting Prince 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.37 +0.56 S/R 56% 8 Faylaq (S) 2.50 LOSE 1.25 -1.25 -0.81 S/R 50% 7 Spartan Fighter 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +0.44 S/R 57% 6 Masar 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.06 S/R 50% 5 Incredulous 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.94 S/R 60% 4 Vivionn 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.56 S/R 50% 3 Mighty Spirit 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.44 S/R 67% 2 Buhturi 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +1.44 S/R 100% 1 Last Empire 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +0.72 S/R 100%
July SELECTIONS: 17 WIN: 11 LOSE: 6 S/R: 65% PROFIT: +5.12pts
(112L1L12141111161) FINISHED First or Second (76.47%)
(SSSSDSSSSSSSSDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (88.24%)
25 Vasiliev 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.33 S/R 56% 24 Chef De Troupe 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 -0.77 S/R 54% 23 Anthony Van Dyck 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.39 S/R 52% 22 Faylaq 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.39 S/R 55% 21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 -0.92 S/R 52% 20 Mutamaasik 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 -1.54 S/R 50% 19 Saqqara King 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 -2.45 S/R 47% 18 Kodiac Pride 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -3.25 S/R 44% 17 Stradivarius (S) 2.25 WIN 1.25 +1.00 -2.25 S/R 47% 16 Faylaq 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 -3.25 S/R 44% 15 Magical (S) 2.87 LOSE 1.25 +0.13 -4.50 S/R 40% 14 Too Darn Hot (S) 3.50 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -4.63 S/R 43% 13 Battaash 3.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -3.13 S/R 46% 12 Mekong 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.13 S/R 50% 11 Dream Kart 1.57 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.13 S.R 55% 10 Tempus 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.13 S/R 60% 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4 2.25 WIN 1.00 +0.69 -0.66 S/R 56% 8 Far Above 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 -1.35 S/R 50% 7 Neon Sea R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -2.07 S/R 43% 6 Nahham (S) 2.75 LOSE 1.25 -1.25 -3.15 S/R 33% 5 Theban'kingrebel 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 -1.93 S/R 40% 4 Quiet Place 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.65 S/R 25% 3 Ricochet (S) 2.37 LOSE 1.25 -1.25 -1.65 S/R 33% 2 Separate 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 -0.40 S/R 50% 1 Sir Dragonet (S) 4.00 LOSE 1.20 -1.20 -1.20 S/R 0%
June SELECTIONS: 25 WIN: 14 LOSE: 11 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +0.33pts
(51421411113L2321131111211) FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)
25 Mind The Crack 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +3.04 S/R 56% 24 Izvestia R4(S) 3.00 WIN 1.25 +1.65 +2.32 S/R 54% 23 Battaash 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +0.67 S/R 52% 22 Star Of Bengal 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 -0.58 S/R 50% 21 Tabassor (S) 3.25 WIN 1.25 +2.00 -1.58 S/R 48% 20 Jane Lamb 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -3.58 S/R 45% 19 Raise You (S) 2.25 WIN 1.25 +1.00 -2.58 S/R 47% 18 Stradivarius 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 -3.58 S/R 44% 17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75 LOSE 1.20 +0.00 -4.38 S/R 41% 16 Humanitarian 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 -4.38 S/R 44% 15 Run For Mary 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 -5.10 S/R 40% 14 Quiet Place 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -5.50 S/R 36% 13 Broome 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -4.50 S/R 38% 12 Tapissier 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.94 S/R 33% 11 Salouen 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 -3.94 S/R 36% 10 Konigin Ara 4.30 LOSE 1.30 -1.30 -4.66 S/R 30% 9 Welsh Saint 1.72 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -3.36 S/R 33% 8 Aphaea 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -2.36 S/R 37% 7 Commodore Barry 1.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.36 S/R 43% 6 Magical 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 -0.36 S/R 50% 5 Deputise 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.76 S/R 40% 4 Klassique (S) 2.87 LOSE 1.25 -0.31 +0.24 S/R 50% 3 Coolagh Forest 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +0.55 S/R 67% 2 The Big Getaway 2.87 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.28 S/R 50% 1 Calyx 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +0.72 S/R 100%
May SELECTIONS: 25 WIN: 14 LOSE: 11 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +3.04pts
(1212L122F4121211311211111) FINISHED First or Second (84.00%)
14 Mokammal 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.59 S/R 57% 13 Ustath 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +3.59 S/R 62% 12 Oasis Prince 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +3.15 S/R 58% 11 Nearooz (S) 2.25 WIN 1.25 +1.00 +2.35 S/R 55% 10 Magic Saint 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.35 S/R 50% 9 Cape Victory 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.35 S/R 56% 8 Falco Blitz 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.35 S/R 63% 7 Sir Ron Priestly 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.35 S/R 71% 6 Alminoor 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +3.63 S/R 67% 5 Magical (S) 2.37 WIN 1.20 +1.17 +2.83 S/R 60% 4 Festival Of Ages 3.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.66 S/R 50% 3 Pilaster 1.40 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.66 S/R 67% 2 Private Secretary 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +3.66 S/R 100% 1 Pentland Hills 3.75 WIN 1.00 +2.75 +2.75 S/R 100%