SILVER FOREVER 5.35 Chepstow at 6/4

Unibet/EBF Mares' "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (EBF Mares' NH Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m3f100y

Pedigree: 7th foal; half-sister to winners Ruapehu (point/3m1f chase), Crown Hill (2m-3m2f hurdle/chase) and Sopat (point/bumper); dam unraced sister to 2m4f-3m1f hurdle/chase winner The Manse Brae and half-sister to bumper/useful 2m4f hurdle winner Mary's Manna

Trainer Form: 3-6 for 50%    (10)
RPR: 133                      (9)                                     
Optimum Ground: Soft         (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m4f       (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden         (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Main danger: Just A Thought 5/1

Silver Forever has won two NH flat races from four and won easily a point-to-point. Distances and ground range from 2m to 3m on good to soft and soft ground. Beaten 1l by Misty Whisky when second of 10 as the 11/8 favourite on her latest outing in a NH flat race at Sandown over 2m on soft ground in March.

Trip and ground to suit

Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals and could do so once more with an exciting type to follow this season if anywhere near as good as last year's hero, Posh Trish. She went on prove herself a smart novice after winning this last year and Silver Forever is likely to follow suit. She won bumpers here and at Ascot last season and was only beaten a length in a Listed contest at Sandown in March. This step up in trip will suit and on ground she likes and all the signs are she will run well over hurdles this season and whilst she has speed, her pedigree is that of a stayer.

Trainer form

Because of our horse Force Ten and the subsequent reports we know the trainer has many of his horses ready and we believe the Pacafi is one of them. Nicholls last six runners as we go to post have finished 112142. At Chepstow he does well and shows a massive 212 winners from 909 runners for 23%. Last year he scored 6-25 for 24% at the course and Harry Cobden rides. He has started the season well registering 19-84 for 23% (-0.53) though at Chepstow ridden a moderate 16-92 for 17%. We confidently expect that strike rate to increase this year at this course.

Of her rivals

Crossgalesfamegame was a little disappointing in bumpers last term but jumping should be her game and Queens Cave is almost certainly better than she showed when a very hot favourite at Ayr in January. Just A Thought returns from injury but had some very useful form at the beginning of 2018 while Kissesforkatie travelled strongly at Newton Abbot in may when finding only one too good and shouldn’t be long in opening her account. Early Days and Outonpatrol are others worth monitoring for future reference.

Timeform

SILVER FOREVER makes plenty of appeal on her hurdles debut and can give Paul Nicholls a third straight success in what is usually a useful contest. Just A Thought can surely win a race for the in-form Rebecca Curtis if all is well back from 18 months away. Kissesforkatie should improve on her first run over hurdles in the spring.

Value

We have the Rebecca Curtis horse to beat but given that one has not run for 540 days but has to be beat if retaining her ability. Might be one further down the line but our Pacafi looks the part and ticks all our boxes, must start closer to even than 6/4

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

11 Colour Image      1.80        1.00
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 10  WIN: 5  LOSE: 5  S/R: 50%   PROFIT: +0.85pts

(2221112411)   FINISHED First or Second (90.00%)

(SSDSSDSSSS) SHORTENS in price (80.00%)

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