RAAEB 6.30 Kempton at 8/15

32Red Casino Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 6f

Pedigree: Second foal; dam 1m4f AW winner (RPR 97), half-sister to UAE 7f Listed winner Ghaamer out of useful 1m winner closely related to 1m2f Listed winner Imtiyaz, half-sister to 7f 2yo Gr 3 winner Bint Shadayid out of 1,000 winner Shadayid

Trainer Form: 4-8 for 50%    (10) 
RPR: 92                      (10)                                    
Optimum Ground: Good/Std     (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)←
Jockey: Jim Crowley          (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Danyah 7/2

Heavily backed on debut

Saeed bin Suroor's colt was made a hot 11/10 favourite for his Doncaster debut in a Class 3 debut Maiden on good to firm ground. The race was restricted to horses whose sire or dam won a race over 1m4f plus, the 2018 edition of this worked out well, with winner Royal Marine going on to win the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on its subsequent start. This year it looked ordinary on paper, but Godolphin took the spoils again with another potentially smart sort. They went slow early, and only got sprinting 3f out. Supporters had little worry as the colt looked compact, fit and ready to go, and he travelled professionally on the shoulder of the leader before picking up to good effect. He promised lots more to come and will get further eventually but not yet! Interestingly he's a second foal, with his older half-brother not making it to the track for Godolphin and now in training with Derek Shaw.

Upgraded his second run significantly

Next up was in a Class 4 Novice (today is a Class 5 Novice) at Newmarket over 7f on good to soft ground and his second place was far better than it originally looked. He raced on his own on the far rail but travelled strongly after being a little keen early. The winner did breeze past him but the Pacafi was racing alone, giving the winner 6lbs, appeared not to finish his race yet still finished a long way clear of the rest and clocked a very fast time given the ground. He looks the type to improve again and a drop back to 6f on this occasion looks a great move enabling him to use his early pace and hit the line hard!

Trainer form

Saeed bin Suroor has his horses in fine form with 4 winners from his last 14 runners for 29% but we are also drawn to his Kempton statistics. At this course he logs 131-479 for 27% and a level stake profit of +27.18 and above his national average of 23%. This is his only runner for tomorrow. When Jim Crowley combines with the trainer they score 14-54 for 26%.

Of his rivals

Danyah made a winning start on soft ground at Nottingham and started odds-on in similar conditions at Haydock but weakened quickly inside the final furlong and that leaves a question mark. Colouring put a moderate debut behind her to finish second to the odds-on Rosa on this track and similar progress should see her go well while Streeton made a promising start at Wolverhampton and normal progress can see him in the firing line.

Timeform

On the back of a winning debut, RAAEB offered plenty to work on when best of the rest behind a useful one at Newmarket 17 days ago, a performance backed up by the clock, and he should take some stopping. Conversely Danyah recoiled from his opening success at Haydock and now sports a hood, with Streeton another possible danger.

Value

We are not going to lie we wanted 8/11 and we have not secured it at this stage. Danyah and Streeton have to be beaten but we believe our Pacafi is going to make another step forward and be too good for these two! Do we have perceived value? Not sure, just, perhaps...

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke F        1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen F    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad F         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 12  LOSE: 8  S/R: 60%   PROFIT: +4.98pts

(22211124116111512111)   FINISHED First or Second (85.00%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

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