The Racing Horse offered our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for every race of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. It was our aim to factually prepare and inform members by giving them all the pertinent information and also an understanding on how the Festival might unfold! Last year we prepared the following for our members, once we have fully covered all 28 races we will update this piece but as it stands it makes interesting reading and certainly something we should all be aware of!

COURSE FORM, HEART & STAMINA

Best horses, trainers and jockey come to the fore at this toughest of any meeting featuring national hunt horses! Races are seldom non-competitive, lacking in class or depth. Course and distance winners are always a positive and of primary consideration for a festival like this. Horses with Cheltenham form prove they can can handle/negotiate the undulations then master the Cheltenham Hill. Invariably horses contend a relentless pace and lots of runners where a single mistake signals the end of any perceived chance. Ability is not enough on its own, horses who have shown degrees of unwillingness should be avoided, they are not going to have the heart and stamina to see out the race.

GRADE 1 HURDLE RACES at CHELTENHAM

At the last six Cheltenham Festivals there have been 40 Grade 1 Hurdle races containing 551 runners

40/40: Had no more than 4 starts since a victory (100%)
39/40: Ran in a hurdle race last time out (98%)
39/40: Ran in a non-handicap last time out (98%)
39/40: Ran at Class 2 or above last time out (98%)
38/40: Won at least once in current season (95%)
38/40: Finished in top 4 last time out (95%)
38/40: Had 2-5 starts in current season (95%)
37/40: Last start between 26 & 90 days
36/40: Won 1 of their last 3 starts (90%)
36/40: Ran at Class 1 level last time out (90%)
36/40: Ridden by their jockey at least once previously (90%)
26/40: Won last time out (65%)
4/110: Not won 1 of last 3 starts (4%)
4/112: Ridden by jockey for the first time (4%)
..1/35: Ran off a break of 91+ days (3%)
..1/44: Had 0-1 starts in current season (2%)
..1/45: Had 6 or more starts in current season (2%)
..1/52: Those who ran in a handicap last time out (2%)
..2/94: Ran within last 25 days (2%)
2/102: Those to record a victory that season (2%)
1/126: Ran at Class 3 or below won last time out (1%)
..0/56: Not won 1 of its last 4 starts (0%)

HURDLE WINNERS NEED OR of 143+

32 of the 34 Grade 1 Hurdle winners (excluding the Triumph Hurdle) came into their race with a rating of OR 143+. 

HANDICAP to NON-HANDICAP VERY DIFFICULT INDEED!

97 of the 102 non-handicap winners ran in a non-handicap race last time out.  Clearly stepping up from handicap company to non-handicap company at the Cheltenham Festival is very difficult indeed! Three of those five winners came in the X-Country Chase, a race that had only changed from a handicap to a non-handicap four years ago and a race that isn’t a standard festival race.

18 of 24 DOUBLE FIGURE PRICE

Without a mathematical template, solving the handicap contests at Cheltenham is very difficult indeed. 18 of the last 24 Festival Handicap Hurdles (non-novice) has been won by a horse at a double figure price. At the last 6 Festivals there has been 24 non-novice handicap hurdle races and 592 runners.

24/24: Ran in a Hurdle race last time out (100%)
24/24: Race in 5 or less Handicap Hurdle starts (100%)
23/24: Had 0-4 previous Handicap Hurdle starts
23/24: Had 0-1 previous Handicap Hurdle wins
23/24: Had 9 or less Hurdle starts
23/24: Raced at Class 3 level or above last time out
23/24: Had 18 or less career starts
22/24: Finished in the top 5 last time out
20/24: Finished in the top 3 last time out
2/181: Outside the top 5 last time out
..1/55: Raced at Class 4 level or below last time out
1/162: Had 19 or more career starts
1/233: Raced 10+ Hurdle starts
..0/71: Did not run in a Hurdle race (0%)
0/180: Raced in 6 or more Handicap Hurdle starts (0%)

FORGET CLAIMERS

The hefty claim of a young jockey to reduce the weight burden does not, generally, pay dividends. A claimer with an allowance of 5lbs+ has not won a handicap at any of the last four festivals and 0-90.

LAST TIME FALLERS have AWFUL RECORD

Last time fallers have an awful record here, only 5 wins spanning 144 races since 2003, Last year last time fallers finished 2FPP0FP3P0

7yos have STANDOUT STRIKE RATE

Runners aged 7yo coming to the festival having previously won at the festival are the standout with a strike rate of 32% since 2013

WON within LAST THREE STARTS

75% (308 from 408) of the races since 2003 have been won by a runner who had won within its last three starts in the UK or Ireland..

FORGET the OLDIES

Of the 172 Horses aged 11+ to have run at the festival only three have won (1.74%). For the record the winners came in the Foxhunters Chase & the Kim Muir Chase, both races where you are liable to get a higher percentage of older horses anyway.

CAREER STARTS

Of the 114 Horses with 33 or more previous (UK) career starts to have run in a G1 at the last 15 festivals only one has won (0.9%). The only horse to beat that statistic was Moscow Flyer.

LEOPARDSTOWN is THE WARM-UP TRACK

Leopardstown has been the ‘warm-up’ track for 40 of the last 165 Festival winners (24%). Those that won a Graded race at Leopardstown last time out are especially worth noting showing 18-70 for 26% (+£59.29 BFLSP).

SHORT BREAKS not CONDUCIVE

Only 2 of the 125 horses to try and win a Grade 1 off the back of a break of 24 days or less have been successful (1.6%)

BIG ODDS LAST START STRUGGLE

Those horses that started at large odds at 22/1 or more on their final start before Cheltenham have struggled to win showing just 2-209 (1%)

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