FANTASTIC LADY 4.00 Doncaster at 11/10

 Virgin Bet EBF Mares' "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f88y

The RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 5-21 for 24%          (10)
National average: 25%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 29%             (10)
RPR: 143                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Distance: 2m3f+                     (10)
Jockey: Aidan Coleman               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

Main Danger: Aggy With It

Looks better class then her rivals

Fantastic Lady is from a fine family and made an excellent start when fourth in a maiden hurdle at Warwick over 2m5f on soft ground in a race dominated by male opposition. She looked certain to open her account at Warwick last month before crashing out after swishing her tail when a length to the good at the last. She really ought to pick up compensation. Looking at the RPRs she stands at 143 and the next best is Saturn 'n Silk has one of 133, the main danger has a RPR of 124 and this 6yo mare must step forward again with just 2 runs under her belt.

Trainer form

We look again at not just the form of the trainer but of the jockey. We reported to members that we were concerned about the form of Nicky Henderson so close to the Cheltenham Festival, at one time he was 1-15 for 7% in February, a massive 18% below his monthly national average.

NICKY HENDERSON in the WORST FORM so near to the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Remember, he was only 10-56 for 18% in January so -7%. We rightly predicted he would get a minimum of 10 winners in February and of course he did, finishing with 10-72 for 14% but this is awful form for this trainer! We have never seen such abysmal figures for him, in fact we have to go back to 2009 to find 11 winners in February but at least he was scoring at 21% in the January.

His horses are clearly not ready or underperforming and we can neither explain it nor heard anything why this should be happening now, he shut the stable down for a few days in January. Some of his good horses in February have looked more long-term but a couple have been beaten by what we can only describe as passive rides.

Jockey form

We are not going to bash Nico de Boinville, he has ridden 515 winners more than me and won £8.5m in prize money, he has ridden 365-1366 for a massive 27% for Nicky Henderson, but there is a but coming! Some of his rides recently have looked downright passive and some have conceded first run off a slow pace. We are certain three or four of his rides could have won if there had been a different mindset in the saddle. On more than two occasions he has been beaten (outridden) by Harry Skelton who has looked far more positive at the business end of races.

The ride on today's mare Fantastic Lady on the 3 February was a case in point. We thought she was winning the race nicely on only her second start in her life when Nico gave her slap behind the saddle, she did not like it and swished her tail and edged stage left. We wanted him then to get into the drive position and boot her home, but Nico gave her a second crack and she lost concentration at the last and fell when she should have won. Now, we could be completely wrong, but we are not sure why the second slap was necessary a second before the last hurdle, what would she, could she have learnt from that, it was her second start, she was winning? Hindsight is a wonderful thing and racing is all about opinions...

We love Nico, he has ridden 2 Grade 1s for me as a part-owner including the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, where he was kind enough to talk to me despite the throng after the race and something I will always be grateful for, but he is not at the top of his form at the moment! We appreciate he is articulate and intelligent and does look after horses, but Harry Skelton is looking better than him, and for the first time I can remember I am nervous when backing one of his rides - just want him to be more positive!

Today Fantastic Lady will be ridden by Aidan Coleman and it will be interesting if there is a repeat of the tail business at the business end. His combination with Henderson shows 10-58 for 17% so below the stable national average which is not perfect. A negative to this bet is we hope the mare is none the worse for her fall because she jumped her hurdles well given it was only her second run on a racecourse, but we imagine the trainer has that covered.

Contenders

Aggy With It has won three of her last four and the Dan and Harry Skelton team continue to thrive and this one looks the main danger (though conceding a stone to the Pacafi), whilst the consistent Saturn 'n Silk will be racing for third place.

Had we been owner/breeder Evan-Robert Handbury we would not be happy with Henderson running Docte Dina in the same race against us, we dislike this practice and would ban if if we had the power! It has happened to us before in a race at Cheltenham and we absolutely hated it, especially when the other horse won! Hard enough to beat your rivals then have to beat your stablemate - sigh!

We note Bet365 offer 15.62 for the forecast Docte Dina to beat Fantastic Lady.

Timeform

FANTASTIC LADY looked all set to show much-improved form prior to falling at the final flight in a mares' novice at Warwick last month, a length up on her closest pursuer and seemingly idling when departing. She earns the vote to make amends now, with Aggy With It and Saturn 'N Silk a couple of others fancied to get involved.

Value

We tried to get the 6/5 originally on offer but had to settle for the 11/10, as we go to post the Betfair Exchange offer just 2.12 to small money. The mare looks like a 5/6 shot given a kind trip though we are always wary of a Dan Skelton runner. 

Fantastic Lady traded at a low of 1.04 and BSP of 9.46 when falling last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

More to come tomorrow morning...

***