The Racing Horse offers our racecourse template, some pertinent numbers and astute betting advice in readiness for this year's open looking £1.125m Cazoo Epsom Derby. The action will be shown live on ITV1, with coverage from 1.35pm to 5pm.

EPSOM RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

4.30 Epsom: The Cazoo Derby (Group1) 1m4f6y ITV

12/12: At least 1 run that season (100%)
12/12: At least placed on last run (100%)
18/19: Ran within last 35 days (95%)
11/12: Rated 108 or higher (92%)
17/19: Raced no more than 5 times (89%)
17/19: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (89%)
16/19: Previously won a Group race (84%)
10/12: Drawn in stall 7 or higher (83%)
10/12: Ran in the last 35 days (83%)
10/12: At least 3 previous flat runs (83%)
..9/12: At least 2 previous flat wins (75%)
..9/12: At least 1 win in a group 1-3 race (75%)
..9/12: At least 1 win that season (75%)
..0/19: Winners from stall 1 (0%)
..0/19: Ran at the course before (0%)

• Average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 15/2
• No winning favourite in past 5 years (18/1 average winning SP)
• Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
• Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 & 2020. Bolshoi Ballet is the trainer's only runner and the first time since 2004 he has saddled just one horse in the Derby
• Prize money this year 1: £637,987  2: £241,875  3: £121,050  4: £60.300  5: £30,262  6: £15,187.
• Starting stalls were first used for the 1967 Derby. Since then, stall 10 has been the most successful draw with 10 winners, most recently Masar in 2018. Stall 5 is the second-most successful with six winners, followed by stall 9 with five winners. By contrast, no horse drawn 2, 11, 16 or 20 has won the Derby since the introduction of starting stalls.

RECENT WINNERS (last 19 years)

2020: Serpentine (20/1)
2019: Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
2018: Masar (16/1)
2017: Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016: Harzand (13/2)
2015: Golden Horn (13/8f)
2014: Australia (11/8f)
2013: Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012: Camelot (8/13f)
2011: Pour Moi (4/1)
2010: Workforce (6/1)
2009: Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008: New Approach (5/1)
2007: Authorized (5/4f)
2006: Sir Percy (6/1)
2005: Motivator (3/1f)
2004: North Light (7/2jf)
2003: Kris Kin (6/1)
2002: High Chaparral (7/2)

Balance is at a premium for a horse racing around Epsom and it’s not merely a question of size. Big ones and small ones have it - and some just don’t. Whatever they’re like physically, though, they need to handle the hills, turns and cambers, as this track tests every muscle. Runners really get rolling round Tattenham Corner and, while people say suspect stayers can last home over middle distances, I reckon you have to stay the trip thoroughly to win. A sure-footed speedster is needed for the sprints - Jason Weaver

The top 6 trends are a little obvious but show 87-93 for a recurrence rate of 93.55% so this must be the filtered starting point. The 5 horses that meet the first 6 trends include Bolshoi Ballet (117), Mohaafeth (111), Hurricane Lane (112), Third Realm (108) and Youth Spirit (111). Note, Mac Swiney has ran 8 times already so fails the recurrence factor. Given Bolshoi Ballet is the only runner for Aidan O'Brien we must assume he genuinely believes his horse has a big winning chance. The question is the price - does 5/4 represent perceived value? With 32 hours to go Hurricane Lane looks the each way value in the race for his in form trainer (5 of his last 7 runners have won for 71%), we are certain he will run at least a place! He showed fighting spirit to win at Newbury and the Dante, is bred to stay well so more than solid claims. We would have preferred good or good to soft ground for our nomination but the ground will be safe to race on. Charlie Appleby has told us Hurricane Lane has ticked all the boxes as his colt bids to become the 11th horse to complete the Dante-Derby double and drawn in stall 5 will give Buick options! Appleby said: "From that draw William (Buick) can assess what is going on around him and feels where he needs to be in whether that is to push forward or sit in so I am happy with the draw in that sphere. For a big horse his demeanour allows him to be managed through the race and as he relaxes William can put him where he needs to be." Godolphin comments: 200,000gns Y; second foal; brother to 1m 2yo/1m4f winner Frankel's Storm (RPR 98); dam 15.5f-2m winner (inc AW/Listed; 103); won a 1m heavy-ground novice event on debut at Newmarket in October 2020; impressive winner of 10f conditions race (good) at Newbury when next seen in April 2021, pulling clear with another promising sort; improved again when winning the Group 2 Dante Stakes (10f) at York in May; cut to around 7-1 for the Derby after that performance. THE RACING HORSE VERDICT: 1 HURRICANE LANE 9/1  2 Bolshoi Ballet 5/4  3 Mohaafeth 7/1