KEY AREAS of BETTING

Because of its subjective and mathematical nature no one can have all the answers when it comes to winning and profiting from sports betting! Furthermore, our lifetime experience reminds us once you think you do have the game beat you get a kicking in the proverbial. So, what do we know for sure? We know a few things...

SET-ASIDE BANK & STAKING PLAN

Those who are serious about betting must have a set-aside bank and a staking plan that suit the personality of the user especially in regard to risk v reward. There are not two humans on planet earth who bet bet exactly in the same way.

Every successful bettor has a set-aside bank and understands its preservation is sacrosanct. Conversely, in a worst case scenario, they must be relatively comfortable (for the want of a better word) about losing that bank in a way it does not negatively impact on their life outside of betting!

 This separate investment bank helps reduce emotional attachment from betting decisions and accurately measure success or failure. Unfortunately/foolishly, most place random bets using money from their overall/general finances, this invites confusion and high risk factors meaning they will never be able to determine how successful their betting strategy actually is.

IMPORTANCE of KEEPING RECORDS

Every bettor will have a different mental approach to the game, but keeping records is an essential prerequisite to those that are serious about making betting pay. It assists the betting process offering stark reminders of where profits and losses lie, and retrospectively logs and describes an historic road map of where you have been.

Assigning unit stakes to the operation/business helps the bettor be more disciplined.

STAKING PLANS

A staking plan or staking strategy is the method of defining how much of your bank you should be investing on a particular wager. Having an edge/value in any wager is essential and how you then stake your money on this wager critical. Most professionals vary their stake based on how confident they are on their selection, or how 'wrong' the price is. The bigger the difference between the price secured and the one offered by the bookmaker determines the size of the edge. Contrariwise, haphazard staking with no edge is just about the quickest way to the poor house!

A staking plan is a calculation of your stake with the aim of maximising profit or minimising risk, however a plan cannot do both. For example, a staking plan which maximises profit will by its very nature increase the risk of losing more money and visa-versa. It is the bettor's responsibility to learn to identify, assess and mitigate the perils associated with their betting strategy through effective risk management. A common misconception is that some staking strategies, in particular the progressive plans, can turn a loss-making entity into profitable ones. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies.

LEVEL STAKE BETTING is the BENCHMARK

Regarding our own operation we usually advise Pacafi selections to 1pt level stake on perceived value nominations. Level stake betting neither maximises nor minimises risk. Many believe that there is little logic behind a level stake approach and we are sympathetic to that view, but it does form the benchmark against which all others should be compared in regard to profitability and risk evaluation.

NO RISK UMBRELLA

Some have been quick to remind us that our mode of betting is too safe and boring, but we have always preferred natural and incremental growth under the protection of a NO RISK umbrella. Once our bank passes certain thresholds we are able to increase stakes. On a personal note betting as a percentage of capital suits us best.

PROFIT to LEVEL STAKES is the REAL DEAL

If a strategy can make a profit to level stakes, as we do in our bandwidth, then it is the real deal. Better still, if the strategy inherently carries an average 57% strike-rate, it eradicates those long debilitating losing runs that decimates the individual and betting bank. Naturally, one must always be sceptical of level staking results on a small sample but our sample size is huge (over many hundreds of bets and for over 11 years), so above reproach.

OUR STRATEGY

Our strategy makes a profit on the back of a high strike-rate. We recalculate our stake as the bank grows. We also look out for 'stand-outs' and assign/designate special dispensation to raise stakes. It serves our betting mentality, which is not to say it would suit everyone nor would we recommend or advise it.

PERCENTAGE STAKING does NOT TAKE into ACCOUNT HIGHER CONFIDENCE!

Generally speaking, percentage staking does not take into account how confident the bettor is about the bet, so in a perfect world an adjustment to take into account the confidence could/should be made. One way is to have three levels of confidence and add those percentage points to the bet. We have a friend and member of the site who bets professionally (uses the Pacafi as part of his portfolio) and prefers a graded three-pronged approach. His base bet is 3%, his standard is 4% and his maximum/best bet is 5% and this approach serves him well and something we have personally considered. His results do show the highest strike rates combine with the highest 5% stakes and another reason for keeping articulate records.

The percentage of the bank staking still comes in for criticism, but worth remembering there is no danger of losing the bank, and our mantra/comfort zone is one of NO RISK and something we are naturally comfortable with.

EDGE

We bet for a regular wage and one that compliments our two small pensions. We do not claim to be high fliers but we win from sports betting and part of the 2% who make a profit each year. No betting system will be successful without an edge and we know there is no staking plan that can turn bad value selections into winning ways. We also know that aggressive staking will ultimately fail and in any case it would introduce stress, nerves and anxiety into one's life and who needs that?

It must be a good idea to reassess a staking plan every now and then and one might choose to withdraw profits and start again with a new figure.

RANDOM BETTING and CHASING LOSSES

One of the biggest concerns in betting is chasing losses with random wagering, as far as we are concerned random wagering is a bad mistake and the reason we prefer to frame our bets within a strategy or system. These days we NEVER place a random bet, even when we go racing.

We do place bets outside of our strategy and systems but always set up a separate bank and give it a title, for example, we have been invited to Alan King's stable on 5 May 2023 and we will ask him for a horse to follow on the Flat and National Hunt. We have shares in Pentland Hills who has already given us a massive profit and it is our belief he will do it again this and next year, his set aside bank is called Pentland Hills Stage 2.

The PACAFI

The Racing Horse's principal remit is to show a member that they can back horses that win close to a 60% strike-rate and make a profit. We achieve that whilst supplying a rationale as to why our selection will win and nominating the dangers. It is not possible to lose money over a quarter following our advice. The Pacafi is a portfolio, most of the nominations shorten in price making it ideal for trading, most finish first or second, making it an excellent forecast tool, and great for laying second and third-favourites that our bet beats. Our common sense rationale specifically argues why our nomination will win and at the very least offers a good starting point/argument regarding the race involved.

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